Abstract: In recent years,the balance of normal development of economic society and ecology have been damaged severely because of high energy consumption and extensive development of the economy,which brings serious challenges to sustainable development of cities in Xinjiang,China. In the view of resource-conserving and environmental-friendly society development requirements,keeping the progress of industry,ecological protection and urban sustainable development is the most important mission.Based on the theory of ecological footprint to calculate the ecological population capacity from 1994 to 2013,which stands for sustainable development ability, considering the proportion of GDP of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry as index of industrial structure, taking urban green space area and water resources capacity as index of ecological condition,the paper analyzed the dynamic relationship of the three factors based on the VAR model with Eviews6.0 software. The results showed that the per capita availability was growing,and the ecological population capacity decreased year by year. The secondary industry played an inhibitory effect on the city's ecological population and the tertiary industry had a negative influence to ecological population for short term but positive influence for long term. Additionally, both urban green space area and water resource had negative influence to ecological population for long term,but exist hysteretic effect. According to the analysis results,this paper proposed suggestions for industrial structure,ecological protection and sustainable development of Urumqi City:the government should adjust the focus of the city industry actively,and optimize the internal structure of the industry gradually,at the same time,accelerate the development of modern service industry;Additionally,the government should pay attention to the water efficiency and strengthen urban ecological protection. In addition,the government should set up the typical of green ecological guards,and drive the ecological subsidy system. This paper overcame the shortages of related researches with single index and without combination of variables,and enriched the research results of the empirical analysis between the industrial development,environmental protection and urban sustainable development of the oasis cities in the arid areas such as Xinjiang. In the view of the differences in different areas of economic development level,the efficiency of resource utilization and the constraints of environmental conditions,which affected ecological population capacity based on the theory of Ecological Footprint,it is the future research direction to evaluate the spatial population distribution,industrial layout and make proper ecological protection strategies in different regions.

Key words: urban sustainable development, ecological footprint, VAR model, urban ecological population capacity