基于水热平衡原理的塔里木河下游绿洲适宜规模分析

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the hydrologic and meteorological data of oasis of the lower reaches of the Tarim River in recent 40 years, using Hargreaves method and waterenergy budget principle, the suitable oasis scale and cultivated area of 1970s,1980s,1990s and years since 2000 were discussed. Actual oasis size of each period was compared based on remote sensing image interpretation. The results show that: in the past 40 years, the reference crop evapotransporation of the lower reaches of the Tarim Rive had an increasing trend; it was 1 221 mm in the 1970s, but reached 1 299 mm during the period from 2000 to 2008. The suitable scale of oasis and cultivated area tended to shrink in the past 40 years, but it slightly expanded recently, the suitable scales of oasis were 12.77×10⁴ hm², 9.89×10⁴ hm², 8.05×10⁴ hm² and 9.32×10⁴ hm² during the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000-2008, simultaneously, the cultivated area were 3.83×10⁴ hm², 2.97×10⁴ hm², 2.41×10⁴ hm², 2.79×10⁴ hm² in each period. They kept step with the change of water volume in the lower reaches of the Tarim River. As a whole, the actual size of the oasis tended to lessen, while the actual cultivated area remain increasing significantly. In the 1980s, the actual cultivated area kept balance with suitable cultivated size, but it seriously exceeded oasis carrying capacity later. Actual cultivated area was 1.22×10⁴ hm² larger than the suitable cultivated size in 2009. According to the research on the oasis stability, the oasis size and the proportion of cultivated area were more suitable in the 1970s and 1980s, However, the oasis of the lower reaches of the Tarim Rive turned to unstable state since the 1990s because of the oversize cultivated area, and it then showed accelerated decline. In order to slowdown the degradation speed of the oasis in the lower reaches of the Tarim Rive and keep its sustainable development, it is necessary to effectively control cultivated areas and properly lessen oasis size.

Key words: suitable scale of oasis, water and energy budget principle, model analysis, the lower reaches of Tarim River

CLC Number:

CAO Zhi-chao,WANG Xin-ping，LI Wei-hong，YE Zhao-xia，GUO Bin. Suitable scale for oasis in lower reaches of Tarim River[J]., 2012, 35(5): 806-814.

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Suitable scale for oasis in lower reaches of Tarim River

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