Abstract:

This study develops a comprehensive evaluation system of crude oil export capacity based on five dimensions, namely, crude oil supply capacity, domestic political and economic environment, international relations, relations with China, and transport accessibility, based on the cross-sectional data from 2010, 2015, and 2020. Here, 20 major crude oil-exporting countries involved in trade with China under the “Belt and Road Initiative” are taken as the research objects. The entropy-weight TOPSIS model is used to evaluate the crude oil export power of the sample countries, and the obstacle degree model is used to analyze the main obstacles to crude oil export power. The following results were observed: (1) The crude oil export capacity of the 20 sample countries from 2010 to 2020 shows a general trend of fluctuation and decline. (2) The evolution of temporal and spatial patterns of crude oil export power of the sample countries is relatively stable on the whole despite observed differences. At the regional level, the overall level of crude oil export power in the Commonwealth of Independent States region is high, that in the African region is low, and that in the Americas, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia is in the middle. At the country level, there has been less change in the ranking of crude oil export strength, with ten countries, including Malaysia and Brunei, remaining unchanged, four countries, including Indonesia and Iraq, rising, and six countries, including Iran and the United Arab Emirates, descending. (3) Different countries have their own strengths and weaknesses in each dimension. Venezuela and Saudi Arabia have higher scores for crude oil supply capacity, Russia and the United Arab Emirates have higher scores for domestic political and economic environment, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have higher scores for international relations, and Russia and Kazakhstan have higher scores for relations with China and transport accessibility. (4) Geographical location, transportation mode diversification, and trade openness, among others, are the main factors that affect the level of crude oil export power. Some differences in the obstacles to crude oil export power are observed among countries. Thus, measures should be taken according to the main obstacle factors of each country to reduce the influence of obstacles and improve crude oil export power.

Key words: crude oil export capacity assessment, index system construction, entropy-weight TOPSIS model, obstacle factors