Abstract:

Xinjiang is an underdeveloped region in China, and as the core area of the Western Development and the “Belt and Road”, it is an important gateway for China to open up to Central and South Asia. The linkages and development of Xinjiang’s regional economy are of great relevance to the quality development of the economy and its organic integration into the overall layout of the country’s opening up to the west. Using ArcGIS 10.2 and Ucinet 6.2 software, this study uses 2010, 2015, and 2019 as time points, relying on the regional flow model and gravity model, to measure regional flow intensity and regional economic linkages and analyze the economic network structure evolution of 15 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang, China over the decade in terms of point degree centrality and cohesive subgroups through social network analysis. The research results show the following: (1) Regional flow intensity shows high and low development patterns in the north and south, respectively, with an average improvement rate of 60% over the decade, with Urumqi City and Kashgar region leading the way in terms of regional flow intensity-related indicators, with both partially increasing, but the core drive of the central region is generally slightly weaker, and the radiation range and intensity should be strengthened. (2) The number of weak economic ties in Xinjiang dropped to 48.57% in 2019, but the pattern of low-level economic ties is significant. Xinjiang’s regional economic linkages have not fully formed a network and still suffer from development deficiencies, gradually forming a radial spatial linkage pattern with Urumqi City as the center and Karamay City and Shihezi City as sub-centers; however, the overall degree of economic linkage enhancement over the decade is not high, and the siphoning effect is significantly greater than the trickle-down effect in the process. (3) The structure of Xinjiang’s economic linkage network from 2010 to 2019 remains unstable, with the central potential of the network reaching 63.61% in 2019. Regions with strong economic linkages have strong agglomeration, diffusion, and resource control capabilities over the surrounding areas and show a higher degree of point centrality in the network. The spatial segmentation phenomenon is severe, and the overall spatiotemporal network pattern of economic ties in Xinjiang has a significant “core-edge” phenomenon, showing a spatial distribution pattern of “strong in the northeast and weak in the southwest”.

Key words: regional flow intensity, economic connection, social network analysis, Xinjiang