“一带一路”沿线国家开放度时空格局及其影响因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.05.21

Abstract

Abstract: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has marked a new pattern for China’s all-round opening-up, and it will have significant impacts on the common development and prosperity of countries along the BRI. Based on the panel data of 66 countries from 2000 to 2015, this paper develops a comprehensive evaluation index system of openness in order to examine its spatio-temporal pattern of openness and influencing factors, which integrated the approaches of Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), Standard Deviation Ellipse (SDE), Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model (DSDM). The empirical results show: (1) Openness presents a rising trend year by year, and the difference gradually narrows. (2) The center of gravity of openness is divided into two stages in moving direction: from 2000 to 2008, the center of gravity moves to the northwest, while after 2008, the center of gravity gradually moves to the east. (3) There were obvious spatial differences in openness, with the northwest regions having a high degree of openness than the central and southern regions relatively. (4) In global agglomeration, openness had a positive spatial autocorrelation. In local agglomeration, hot spots were concentrated in Singapore and Cyprus, while cold spots were mainly in China, Central Asia and South Asia. (5) DSDM analysis shows that level of economic development, human capital, land transport and port had strong positive direct effects and indirect effects on openness, both in short-term and long-term.

Key words: openness, spatio-temporal pattern, DSDM, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

MA Wei, HUANG Xiao-yan, CAO Xiao-shu. Spatio-temporal pattern of openness of countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and its influencing factors[J].Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(5): 1358-1370.

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Spatio-temporal pattern of openness of countries along the Belt and Road Initiative and its influencing factors

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