Abstract: In order to promote the growth of local industries and the upgrading of industrial structures,some scholars have advocated for the localization of economies,while others have advocated for a diversification of the development paths. In recent years,evolutionary economic geographers have focused on the positive effects of related diversification on local economic growths. However,the local specialization and related diversification development paths are both unfavorable for underdeveloped regions：they assume that a region lacking a related industrial base and a background for creativity has little chance of breaking the current path and introduce an advanced industry. The door to international trade has gradually opened,making it possible to break the existing path and achieve breakthroughs by closely following and actively participating in the advanced manufacturing product market opened up by developed economies,actively absorbing knowledge spillover,and creating through learning and cooperation. This paper discusses whether developing countries like China （which tend to learn from and directly imitate imported products,rather than evolve related industries from local existing ones） can successfully develop high-tech industries. Our study employed data from China’s customs and statistical yearbook databases collected between 1998 and 2015. The research methods included the creation of a map using ARCGIS and an econometric model analysis of PROBIT based on STATA. The results showed that,in the near to medium term,the level of local industry technological relatedness will still play a significant role in promoting the diversification of local high-tech export industries; however,in the medium to long term,the specialization level of local import products will have a more significant impact. The urban absorptive capacity seemed to have a steady promoting effect on the export of local high-tech products and to significantly reduce the dependence of cities on the technological relatedness level of the local industry,while the imitative learning effect of cities on imported products did not seem to be significantly limited by their absorption level. This demonstrates that the development of local products through the absorption of knowledge spillover from imported products does not depend much from the local industrial technical level: this kind of “leapfrog” development route is relatively easy to realize. Differently from previous ones,this study was based on an evolutionary economic geography theory,focusing from the macro-level of technological progress and total factor productivity to the micro-level of the four-digit codes of the product. Moreover,we assessed the influence of the local industry evolution and of the knowledge of specific products to be imported on China’s local high-tech products. Notably,the influence of cities’ absorbing capacity was compared with that of local independent research and the absorption of knowledge spillovers from imported products. Moreover,this study discusses a selection of developing countries,as well as their industrial transformation,upgrading path mode,and implementation background. Our results contrast with the endogenous growth theories based on evolutionary economic geography and international knowledge spillover;however,they complement the existing theoretical basis at the micro-level and further explain the heterogeneous absorptive capacities of two development modes in different cities and at different time stages. Finally,our results provide a theoretical and empirical support for local governments that wish to open up the local market and actively introduce advanced imported products,so to promote the upgrading of local industries and the development by leaps and bounds.

Key words: industrial evolution, import, export, tacit knowledge, knowledge spillover, high-tech products