1990—2024年昆仑山北坡典型流域湖泊时空动态变化研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.298

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (8): 1531-1544.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.298 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025298

1990—2024年昆仑山北坡典型流域湖泊时空动态变化研究

张齐飞¹^,²(), 原泽斌¹, 陈亚宁²(), 向燕芸³, 贾蓉¹, 刘玉婷⁴

¹ 山西师范大学地理科学学院，山西太原 030031
² 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室/干旱区生态安全与可持续发展重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
³ 山西财经大学公共管理学院，山西太原 030006
⁴ 喀什大学生命与地理科学学院，新疆维吾尔自治区帕米尔高原生源与生态重点实验室，新疆喀什 844000

收稿日期:2025-05-24 修回日期:2025-06-11 出版日期:2026-08-25 发布日期:2026-08-21
通讯作者: 陈亚宁（1958-），男，研究员，主要从事生态水文过程研究. E-mail: chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn
作者简介:张齐飞（1989-），男，副教授，主要从事遥感生态水文过程研究. E-mail: zhangqifei15@mails.ucas.ac.cn
基金资助:
新疆维吾尔自治区重大科技专项(2024A03006-1);国家自然科学基金(W2412135);第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk-0100)

Spatiotemporal dynamic changes of typical lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains from 1990 to 2024

ZHANG Qifei¹^,²(), YUAN Zebin¹, CHEN Yaning²(), XIANG Yanyun³, JIA Rong¹, LIU Yuting⁴

¹ School of Geographic Sciences, Shanxi Normal University, Taiyuan 030031, Shanxi, China
² State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology/Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
³ School of Public Administration, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China
⁴ School of Life and Geographic Sciences, Kashgar University/Key Laboratory of Biological Resources and Ecology, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Kashgar 844000, Xinjiang, China

Received:2025-05-24 Revised:2025-06-11 Published:2026-08-25 Online:2026-08-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

湖泊作为干旱区气候变化的敏感指示器，其时空动态变化规律及驱动因素的准确识别，对区域水资源的科学配置与高效利用具有重要意义。基于1990—2024年多源遥感数据和气象资料，结合归一化水体指数（NDWI）及人工解译校正方法，系统提取并编目昆仑山北坡湖泊信息，分析其35 a的时空动态变化规律及驱动因素。结果表明：（1） 1990—2024年昆仑山北坡湖泊数量和面积均显著增加，湖泊数量由125个增至396个，增幅达216.80%；面积由1439.18 km²增至2614.22 km²，增幅为81.65%。（2）空间上，车尔臣河流域湖泊面积增加最为显著，扩大约3.6倍（净增138.86 km²）；和田河流域湖泊面积增加约1倍（净增46.98 km²）；库木库里盆地湖泊面积增幅73.20%（净增989.20 km²）；从海拔维度上看，山区湖泊面积净增1144.47 km²，显著高于平原区湖泊的30.57 km²。（3）时间序列上，湖泊面积变化呈现明显阶段性：1990—1995年呈下降趋势，年均减少23.26 km²·a^-1；1995年后持续增加，其中1995—2000年增幅高达52.56 km²·a^-1；2000—2005年年均增幅为39.90 km²·a^-1；2005年后各阶段变化速率略有波动，但总体保持持续增长趋势。（4）昆仑山北坡山区湖泊增加主要归因于气温上升引发的冰雪消融及降水增加的共同驱动。过去35 a，山区水储量增加明显，同期气温增幅达35.30%、降水量增加13.18%，这一特征在车尔臣河与库木库里盆地表现尤为显著。相比之下，平原区湖泊的波动性变化主要由气温升高导致的蒸发潜力增加与降水量波动共同作用所致。研究结果为昆仑山北坡区域水资源管理与气候响应评估提供了重要的科学依据与政策参考。

关键词: NDWI, 湖泊动态变化, 气候变化, 昆仑山北坡

Abstract:

As sensitive indicators of climate change in arid regions, lakes provide critical insights into regional water resource allocation and utilization. Thus, the accurate identification of their spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms is of great significance. Employing multisource remote sensing and meteorological records from 1990 to 2024 and integrating the normalized difference water index with manual interpretation and correction, this study systematically extracted and cataloged lake dynamics on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains. The spatiotemporal evolution of lakes and their driving mechanisms over the past 35 years were subsequently analyzed. The results indicate the following: (1) From 1990 to 2024, the number and total area of lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains increased significantly. While the number of lakes increased from 125 to 396 (216.80% increase), the total lake-area expanded from 1439.18 km² to 2614.22 km² (81.65% increase). (2) Spatially, the most significant lake-area expansion occurred in the Cherchen River Basin, where the lake-area increased by ~3.6 times, corresponding to a net gain of 138.86 km². This was followed by the Hotan River Basin, where the lake-area approximately doubled, with a net gain of 46.98 km², and the Kumukuli Basin, where the lake-area increased by 73.20%, corresponding to a net gain of 989.20 km². Regarding elevation, mountain lakes exhibited a net area increase of 1144.47 km², which was substantially higher than the 30.57 km² increase observed for plain lakes. (3) Temporally, lake-area variations exhibited distinct stage-wise characteristics. Lake-area declined from 1990 to 1995, with an average annual loss of 23.26 km²·a^-1, followed by continuous expansion after 1995. Notably, this period accounted for a rapid increase of 52.56 km²·a^-1. Between 2000 and 2005, the mean annual growth rate of lake-area was 39.90 km²·a^-1. After 2005, the rate of extreme changes fluctuated slightly but maintained an overall increasing trend. (4) Lake expansion on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains was primarily driven by glacier and snowmelt resulting from the combined effects of soaring temperatures and increased precipitation. Over the past 35 years, mountain water storage has increased markedly and was accompanied by increases of 35.30% and 13.18% in temperature and precipitation, respectively. The Cherchen River and Kumukuli Basin exhibited particularly strong responses to these climatic changes. Conversely, fluctuations in plain lakes were mainly governed by the synergistic effects of enhanced evaporative demand associated with rising temperatures and variability in precipitation. These findings provide important scientific evidence and policy-relevant implications for water resource management and climate impact assessment in the northern Kunlun Mountains region.

Key words: normalized difference water index(NDWI), lake dynamic change, climate change, the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains

张齐飞, 原泽斌, 陈亚宁, 向燕芸, 贾蓉, 刘玉婷. 1990—2024年昆仑山北坡典型流域湖泊时空动态变化研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(8): 1531-1544.

ZHANG Qifei, YUAN Zebin, CHEN Yaning, XIANG Yanyun, JIA Rong, LIU Yuting. Spatiotemporal dynamic changes of typical lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains from 1990 to 2024[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(8): 1531-1544.

图/表 12

图1

表1

本文使用的遥感影像列表"

年份	传感器类型	分辨率/m	轨道号	云覆盖度/%	年份	传感器类型	分辨率/m	轨道号	云覆盖度/%
1990	Landsat5 （TM）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	1.03、2.77、2.99	2005	Landsat7 （ETM+）	30	146-035、146-036、 147-034	0.27、0.89、1.67
			142-033、142-034、 142-035	0.01、0.47、0.26	2005	Landsat7 （ETM+）	30	147-035、147-036、 148-034	0.09、0.73、4.11
			143-035、146-032、 146-034	2.16、0.13、0.28	2010	Landsat5 （TM）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	0.03、1.39、4.81
			146-035、146-036、 147-034	0.03、1.07、3.97				142-033、142-034、 142-035	3.36、1.06、0.76
			147-035、147-036、 148-034	2.74、4.99、0.26				143-035、146-032、 146-034	0.15、0.97、0.88
1995	Landsat5 （TM）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	3.40、0.30、0.69				146-035、146-036、 147-034	0.34、0.29、0.46
			142-033、142-034、 142-035	1.05、0.58、4.23				147-035、147-036、 148-034	4.88、0.62、0.49
			143-035、146-032、 146-034	2.16、0.13、0.28	2015	Landsat8 （OLI、TIRS）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	0.32、4.59、3.43
			146-035、146-036、 147-034	2.19、1.45、3.35				142-033、142-034、 142-035	0.95、0.66、3.12
			147-035、147-036、 148-034	0.86、2.13、0.06				143-035、146-032、 146-034	2.73、1.09、1.40
2000	Landsat5 （TM）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	0.58、1.20、0.58				146-035、146-036、 147-034	1.64、1.78、3.32
			142-033、142-034、 142-035	1.27、0.67、0.06				147-035、147-036、 148-034	1.61、5.92、0.11
			143-035、146-032、 146-034	3.96、1.75、0.44	2020	Landsat8 （OLI、TIRS）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	0.55、1.01、3.97
2000	Landsat7 （ETM+）	30	146-035、146-036、 147-034	0.03、1.60、0.77				142-033、142-034、 142-035	0.79、0.24、1.26
2000	Landsat7 （ETM+）	30	147-035、147-036、 148-034	0.02、0.33、2.37				143-035、146-032、 146-034	3.93、2.82、1.07
2005	Landsat5 （TM）	30	140-033、141-033、 141-034	2.16、1.94、1.83				143-035、146-032、 146-034	3.93、2.82、1.07
			140-033、141-033、 141-034	2.16、1.94、1.83	2024	Sentinel-2 （MSI）	10		<5
			143-035、146-032、 146-034	1.51、0.40、2.91
			142-033、142-034、 142-035	0.38、0.76、0.25

表1

表2

图2

表3

图3

表4

图4

图5

图6

图7

图8

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年份	车尔臣河	和田河	库木库里盆地
1990	2.84（5.55%）	3.18（9.30%）	12.08（0.89%）
1995	1.68（3.28%）	3.44（10.06%）	8.69（0.70%）
2000	10.56（20.64%）	8.67（25.35%）	12.53（0.92%）
2005	8.28（16.18%）	4.06（11.87%）	16.45（1.01%）
2010	9.06（17.71%）	4.24（12.40%）	16.56（0.90%）
2015	6.38（12.47%）	3.86（11.29%）	16.10（0.81%）
2020	12.37（24.17%）	6.75（19.74%）	32.76（1.50%）
2024	16.38（9.26%）	8.38（8.67%）	24.56（1.05%）

年份	车尔臣河流域	和田河流域	库木库里盆地	总面积
1990	38.08	49.65	1351.45	1439.18
1995	22.66	52.16	1248.08	1322.90
2000	141.44	78.80	1365.46	1585.70
2005	94.82	67.55	1622.82	1785.19
2010	125.29	58.93	1847.22	2031.44
2015	116.48	70.97	1995.40	2182.85
2020	158.79	74.18	2184.21	2417.18
2024	176.94	96.63	2340.65	2614.22

年份	分级
	0.05~0.10 km²		0.10~0.50 km²		0.50~1.00 km²		>1.00 km²
	数量/个	面积/km²	数量/个	面积/km²	数量/个	面积/km²	数量/个	面积/km²
1990	40	2.86	52	11.09	4	2.92	20	1402.65
1995	32	2.35	30	6.28	5	3.64	19	1310.63
2000	104	7.18	160	33.17	21	14.50	40	1520.79
2005	89	5.96	109	23.96	19	12.00	35	1743.27
2010	89	6.17	124	25.88	29	20.91	29	1978.48
2015	93	6.57	106	23.36	20	13.81	32	2139.11
2020	109	7.59	153	32.62	26	17.84	41	2359.13
2024	128	8.99	166	34.93	31	21.48	71	2548.81
1990—2024	220.00%	214.34%	219.23%	214.97%	675.00%	635.62%	255.00%	81.71%

1990—2024年昆仑山北坡典型流域湖泊时空动态变化研究

Spatiotemporal dynamic changes of typical lakes on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains from 1990 to 2024

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