河西走廊东部春季复合低温多雨事件的识别及其变化特征

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.416

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (6): 1147-1156.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.416 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025416

河西走廊东部春季复合低温多雨事件的识别及其变化特征

杨晓玲¹^,²(), 赵慧华¹(), 侍峥嵘¹, 周华¹, 丁文魁¹, 陈静¹

¹ 武威国家气候观象台，甘肃武威 733099
² 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所，甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室，中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室，甘肃兰州 730020

收稿日期:2025-07-23 修回日期:2025-07-29 出版日期:2026-06-25 发布日期:2026-06-29
通讯作者: 赵慧华（1999-），女，本科，助理工程师，主要从事天气预报及预警服务等方面的研究. E-mail: 18993533791@163.com
作者简介:杨晓玲（1971-），女，本科，高级工程师，主要从事天气预报及气候变化等方面的研究. E-mail: wwqxj6150343@163.com
基金资助:
武威市市列科研项目(WW25Z01NY009);武威市市列科研项目(2024WW01237);甘肃省气象局气象科研项目(Zd2024-D-3);国家自然科学基金项目(42375039);国家自然科学基金项目(42175192)

Identification and change characteristics of compound low temperature and rainfall events of spring in the eastern Hexi Corridor

YANG Xiaoling¹^,²(), ZHAO Huihua¹(), SHI Zhengrong¹, ZHOU Hua¹, DING Wenkui¹, CHEN Jing¹

¹ Wuwei National Climate Observation Platform, Wuwei 733099, Gansu, China
² Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China

Received:2025-07-23 Revised:2025-07-29 Published:2026-06-25 Online:2026-06-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

复合低温多雨事件是河西走廊东部高发的复合极端气候事件之一，也是影响农业生产的重要气候指标和气象灾害之一，对农业生产和生态环境造成的危害比单一的极端气候事件更为严重。利用1960—2024年春季河西走廊东部5个气象站的日最低气温和降水观测数据，采用百分位数阈值法和最大靠近原则识别和确定复合低温多雨事件，采用反距离权重插值法和线性趋势法分析复合低温多雨事件时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）河西走廊东部春季及3—5月复合低温多雨事件均呈南多北少的分布特征，表现为古浪>天祝>凉州>永昌>民勤，高值区在古浪浅山区，低值区在民勤荒漠区。（2）河西走廊东部复合低温多雨事件春季及3、4月随年代、年基本呈减少趋势，5月随年代、年总体呈先增多后减少趋势，全区域及各地春季和各月复合低温多雨事件最多频次及出现年份不一致，均有个别年份没有出现复合低温多雨事件。研究结果可为农业生产和生态环境保护提供重要的科学依据和现实价值。

关键词: 识别, 变化特征, 复合低温多雨事件, 百分位数阈值法, 河西走廊

Abstract:

Compound low-temperature and rainfall (CTLR) events are among the complex, high-incidence climate extremes occurring in the eastern Hexi Corridor. They are important climate indicators and meteorological disasters that cause more severe damage to agricultural production and the ecological environment than single extreme climate events. Based on daily minimum temperature and precipitation data from five meteorological stations (spring of 1960—2024) in the eastern Hexi Corridor, CTLR events were identified and characterized via the percentile threshold method and the principle of maximum proximity. Spatiotemporal characteristics of CTLR events were subsequently analyzed using the inverse distance weighting interpolation and linear trend methods. The results show the following: (1) Springtime and March-May CTLR events in the region assumed distribution characteristics of more in the south, less in the north, ranked by frequency as Gulang>Tianzhu>Liangzhou> Yongchang>Minqin. High-frequency areas were clustered in the Gulang shallow mountainous area, whereas the Minqin desert area served as the low-frequency area. (2) Spring, as well as March and April CTLR events showed decadal and annual decreases, whereas May showed a nonmonotonic trend, increasing first before decreasing. Peak CTLR frequency years (spring and monthly) varied across regional and local scales, and CTLR absences were recorded in individual years. This provides an important scientific basis and practical reference for agricultural production and ecological security.

Key words: identification, change characteristics, compound low temperature and rainfall events, percentile threshold method, Hexi Corridor

杨晓玲, 赵慧华, 侍峥嵘, 周华, 丁文魁, 陈静. 河西走廊东部春季复合低温多雨事件的识别及其变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(6): 1147-1156.

YANG Xiaoling, ZHAO Huihua, SHI Zhengrong, ZHOU Hua, DING Wenkui, CHEN Jing. Identification and change characteristics of compound low temperature and rainfall events of spring in the eastern Hexi Corridor[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(6): 1147-1156.

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地名	低温总阈值/℃			降水总阈值/mm
地名	3月	4月	5月	3月	4月	5月
永昌	-11.6	-4.9	0.6	0.7	1.4	2.9
民勤	-9.9	-2.8	4.3	0.2	0.4	1.3
凉州	-7.6	-1.7	4.2	0.6	1.0	2.3
古浪	-9.9	-3.4	1.9	2.1	3.8	6.2
天祝	-15.2	-9.7	-4.0	1.3	2.5	5.3

时段	地名	1960—1969年	1970—1979年	1980—1989年	1990—1999年	2000—2009年	2010—2019年	2020—2024年
春季	全区域	0.0	0.6	0.7	0.1	-0.3	-0.1	-1.5
	永昌	-0.1	0.4	0.8	0.2	-0.5	0.0	-1.1
	民勤	0.3	0.6	0.4	-0.6	-0.2	0.1	-1.4
	凉州	-0.4	0.7	1.2	0.2	-0.4	-0.2	-1.7
	古浪	0.2	0.8	1.0	0.4	-0.9	-0.3	-2.7
	天祝	0.0	0.3	-0.2	0.4	0.2	-0.3	-0.8
3月	全区域	0.4	0.0	0.5	-0.2	-0.1	-0.2	-0.6
	永昌	0.4	-0.5	0.8	0.0	-0.3	-0.3	-0.7
	民勤	0.5	0.0	-0.1	-0.3	0.0	0.2	-0.4
	凉州	0.2	-0.1	0.9	-0.3	-0.2	-0.1	-0.5
	古浪	0.7	0.6	0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.7	-1.2
	天祝	0.0	-0.2	0.3	0.0	0.3	-0.2	-0.4
4月	全区域	0.2	0.4	-0.2	0.1	-0.2	-0.1	-0.4
	永昌	-0.2	0.5	-0.1	0.0	-0.2	0.1	0.0
	民勤	0.1	0.6	0.1	-0.2	-0.2	-0.1	-0.3
	凉州	0.1	0.5	-0.4	0.4	-0.4	-0.2	-0.6
	古浪	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1	-0.2	-0.1	-0.8
	天祝	0.7	0.1	-0.5	0.3	-0.2	-0.4	-0.3
5月	全区域	-0.6	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.2	-0.5
	永昌	-0.4	0.3	0.0	0.1	-0.1	0.1	-0.5
	民勤	-0.2	0.1	0.5	0.0	0.1	0.1	-0.6
	凉州	-0.8	0.2	0.6	0.0	0.1	0.0	-0.7
	古浪	-0.7	-0.1	0.5	0.6	-0.4	0.5	-0.7
	天祝	-0.7	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	-0.1

项目		全区域	永昌	民勤	凉州	古浪	天祝
春季	倾向率/次·(10a)^-1	-0.205	-0.133	-0.195	-0.194	-0.393	-0.109
春季	趋势系数	-0.293	-0.151	-0.261	-0.214	-0.332^*	-0.116
3月	倾向率/次·(10a)^-1	-0.121	-0.119	-0.057	-0.097	-0.299	-0.032
3月	趋势系数	-0.307^*	-0.202	-0.149	-0.188	-0.433^***	-0.069
4月	倾向率/次·(10a)^-1	-0.101	-0.007	-0.100	-0.114	-0.132	-0.151
4月	趋势系数	-0.291	-0.014	-0.267	-0.266	-0.242	-0.257
5月	倾向率/次·(10a)^-1	0.017	-0.007	-0.038	0.010	0.038	0.074
5月	趋势系数	0.045	-0.017	-0.083	0.034	0.058	0.137

地名	春季		3月		4月		5月
地名	频次/次	年份	频次/次	年份	频次/次	年份	频次/次	年份
全区域	6	1979、2010	3	1962、1979	3	1975	3	1992
永昌	8	1989	5	1982	3	1975、1989、2010	3	1977、1992、2016
民勤	5	1975、1979、1982、2010	3	1969、1979	3	1975	4	1961
凉州	8	1979	3	1962、1969、1979、1985、1989、2010	3	1963、1979	4	1980
古浪	9	1979	6	1962	3	1963、1979、1990、1996、2003、2010	5	1992
天祝	7	1992	4	2007	5	1960	5	1992

河西走廊东部春季复合低温多雨事件的识别及其变化特征

Identification and change characteristics of compound low temperature and rainfall events of spring in the eastern Hexi Corridor

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