气候变化背景下中国新疆与中亚五国旅游气候舒适度时空演变分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.590

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国新疆与中亚五国作为典型干旱区和丝绸之路旅游文化带，其旅游气候舒适度时空变化及未来风险亟待系统评估。基于高分辨率格点气象数据和CMIP6多模式模拟结果，系统分析了1960—2100年度假气候指数（Holiday climate index，HCI）的时空演变。结果表明：（1） HCI整体呈上升趋势，区域和季节差异显著，山区增幅较大，部分干旱盆地略有下降；SSP585情景下未来HCI增幅及不确定性均高于SSP245情景。（2） HCI年内变化呈“单峰型”与“双峰型”2类模式，未来气候变暖将导致部分区域夏季舒适性下降，高排放情景下远期（2071—2100年）夏季HCI甚至低于历史基准期（1985—2014年），导致旅游适宜窗口收窄。（3） HCI空间分布呈现明显纬度地带性与垂直分异，高值区集中于低海拔、低纬度区域，未来高值区范围进一步扩展，但夏季高舒适区（HCI>90）受极端高温影响出现缩减。（4）旅游气候舒适期显著延长，高排放情景下增幅更大但波动增强；空间上呈低纬度、低海拔地区舒适期高，而高纬度、高海拔地区偏低的格局，高海拔山区远期增幅显著。研究结果可为区域旅游业气候适应与可持续发展提供科学依据。

关键词: HCI, 旅游气候舒适度, 气候变化情景, 时空演变, 气候风险

Abstract:

As a typical arid region and a key corridor along the Silk Road tourism route, Xinjiang, China, and the five Central Asian countries require a systematic assessment of the spatiotemporal variability of tourism climate comfort and its future risks. Based on high-resolution gridded meteorological data and CMIP6 multimodel simulations, this study systematically analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of the holiday climate index (HCI) from 1960 to 2100. The results indicate the following: (1) The HCI exhibits an overall increasing trend, with notable regional and seasonal variations. Greater increases occur in mountainous areas, whereas some arid basins exhibit slight decreases. Under the SSP585 scenario, both the magnitude of future HCI increases and associated uncertainties are higher than those under the SSP245 scenario. (2) Intra-annual variations of HCI exhibit “single-peak” and “double-peak” patterns. Future warming is projected to reduce summer comfort in some regions, with summer HCI under the high-emission SSP585 scenario in the late future (2071—2100) falling below the historical baseline (1985—2014), thereby narrowing the suitable tourism window. (3) The spatial distribution of HCI shows clear latitudinal zonality and vertical differentiation, with high-value areas concentrated in low-altitude, low-latitude regions. Although these high-value areas are projected to expand further in the future, extremely high summer temperatures are expected to reduce the extent of the highest-comfort zones (HCI>90). (4) The tourism climate comfort period has significantly lengthened, with greater increases under high-emission scenarios, though accompanied by enhanced variability. Spatially, comfort periods are longer in low-latitude, low-altitude regions and shorter in high-latitude, high-altitude areas, with significant increases projected in high-altitude mountainous regions over the long term. These findings provide a scientific basis for climate adaptation and the sustainable development of the tourism sector in the region.

Key words: HCI, tourism climate comfort, climate change scenarios, spatiotemporal evolution, climate risk

关靖云, 孙之阳, 徐晓亮, 程乙峰, 宋贝贝, 房瑞莹. 气候变化背景下中国新疆与中亚五国旅游气候舒适度时空演变分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(4): 697-712.

GUAN Jingyun, SUN Zhiyang, XU Xiaoliang, CHENG Yifeng, SONG Beibei, FANG Ruiying. Spatiotemporal evolution of tourism climate comfort in Xinjiang, China and five Central Asian countries under climate change[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(4): 697-712.

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模式名称	所属国家（地区）	模式所属机构	分辨率（纬度×经度）
ACCESS-CM2	澳大利亚	CSIRO	1.25°×1.875°
ACCESS-ESM1-5	澳大利亚	CSIRO	1.25°×1.875°
BCC-CSM2	中国	BCC	1.125°×1.125°
CanESM5	加拿大	CCCma	2.8°×2.8°
INM-CM5-0	俄罗斯	INM RAS	2.0°×1.5°
IPSL-CM6A-LR	法国	IPSL	1.25°×2.5°
NorESM2-LM	挪威	NCC	2.5°×1.9°
NorESM2-MM	挪威	NCC	1.25°×0.9°

等级分类	有效温度/℃	云量覆盖率/%	风速/km·h^-1	日降水量/mm
10	23~25	11~20	1~9	0.00
9	20~22、26	1~10、21~30	10~19	0.01~2.99
8	27~28	0、31~40	0、20~29	3.00~5.99
7	18~19、29~30	41~50	-	-
6	15~17、31~32	51~60	30~39	-
5	11~14、33~34	61~70	-	6.00~8.99
4	7~10、35~36	71~80	-	-
3	0~6	81~90	40~49	-
2	-5~-1、37~39	90~99	-	9.00~12.00
1	≤-6	100	-	-
0	≥39	-	50~70	12.01~25.00
-1	-	-	-	>25.00
-10			>70

HCI分值区间	评分描述
90~100	理想
80~89	优异
70~79	优良
60~69	良好
50~59	可接受
30~49	临界
10~29	难以接受
0~9	危险