基于GIS的干旱区LUCC分析和模拟方法探讨

doi:10.13826/j.cnki.cn65-1103/x.2003.02.016

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 土地利用/土地覆被变化(LUCC)问题中的过程、趋势、驱动力研究及生态环境综合评价是目前的重点研究领域。在现有的“3S”技术应用于LUCC研究的基础上, 对三工河流域近20年的土地利用/土地覆被变化情况进行动态分析, 发现耕地大面积增加, 增长幅度达到13%, ;城市、村庄及工矿建设得到飞速发展, 城市面积扩大了近十倍;荒草地、盐碱地总体趋势是大面积减少, 直接性或间接性的向耕地、灌木林地、城市、村庄发生了转移。同时探讨了利用地理元胞自动机模型(GeoCA)分析的方法对干旱区LUCC进行时空演变研究, 目的在于找寻一种对LUCC进行预测分析及模拟的方法。此方法有利于更好地进行生态环境综合评价和土地利用合理规划。

关键词: GIS, LUCC, 分析和模拟, 干旱区

Abstract: Issue of LUCC has aroused increasing attentions from international groups and worldwide countries since 1990, and becomes the core program of global environmental change research. Land use and land cover change (LUCC) of oasis in mid-scale is one of the key contents in the environmental change of arid region and has an accumulating effect on environmental change in the arid land. The study on LUCC in the arid region has great significance in regional and global change. Now its research focuses on process, trend, drive forces and environment appraise. In China, the study on the modern process of LUCC is significantly importantfor better understanding land use change and environmental management for sustainable development. This paper analyses the dynamic changes of LUCC in the Sangong River Valley of Fukang County Xinjiang in the past 20 years, and discusses a way of GeoCA model analysis on the spatio-temporal variability of arid LUCC, which can provides LUCC prediction analysis, stimulation and environmental appraise. RS, GIS and GPS is a kind of powerful technique and method in capturing LUCC data and analyzing its spatial change. Establishing mathematical models in the range, speed, regional differences and trend index of LUCC, especially the model of LUCC trend and state, the process and trend of oasis LUCC can be deeply studied, including b-i direction process, single-direction process, positive and negative process, rising and falling trend, etc. these models are applied to oasis of arid region and satisfactory effects have been obtained. Cellular Automaton (CA) Model provides GIS with a bottom-to-top spatio-temporal modeling frame, which is composed of a fourfold：cells, states, neighbors and rules. The simplicity and flexibility make CA able to simulate a variety of behaviors of complex systems. The cellular automaton is built within a grid GIS system to facilitate easy access to GIS databases for constructing the constraints. The essence of the model is that constraint space is used to regulate cellular space. Considering the characteristic of Geo-Spatial system and cellular automata, GeoCA model is brought forward as a general framework of cellular automata based model for simulating and analyzing complex Geo-Spatial system. GeoCA is a scheme for the study of Geo-Spatial system, through which profound principle can be explored. In addition, LUCC impacts on environment represent on regional climate, atmospheric quality, soil properties, water quantity and quality and so on. All researches discussed above are of great benefit to environment appraise and suitable layout of land.

Key words: GIS, LUCC, arid region

中图分类号:

X820.2

阎金凤, 陈曦. 基于GIS的干旱区LUCC分析和模拟方法探讨[J]. 干旱区地理, 2003, 26(2): 185-191.

YAN Jin-feng, CHEN Xi. Analysis and Stimulation Method Discussion on LUCC of Arid Region Based on GIS[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2003, 26(2): 185-191.

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