关键词: 旅游经济, 高质量发展, 时空演变, 障碍度模型, 因子分析, 灰色关联分析

Abstract:

As the ninth largest industry cluster in Xinjiang, the high-quality development of the tourism economy plays a leading role in the region’s modernization in China. This study constructs a seven-dimensional measurement system to evaluate the high-quality development of the tourism economy based on three perspectives: quality, efficiency, and tourist experience. The level of high-quality development in Xinjiang’s tourism economy from 2008 to 2023 is measured, employing geographic information systems spatial visualization to analyze its spatial and temporal evolution characteristics. In addition, the study identifies obstacle sources using the obstacle degree model and explores influencing factors through factor analysis and gray correlation analysis. The results indicate the following. (1) The initial level of high-quality development of the tourism economy in Xinjiang is low, but it has improved rapidly since the introduction of the “tourism to develop Xinjiang” strategy in 2018. (2) Significant spatial and temporal differences in the level of high-quality development are observed within Xinjiang’s tourism economy. The overall trend shows strong development in the north and weaker development in the south, with the east and west exhibiting coherence. This is specifically reflected in the cities of Urumqi, the Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, the Altay Prefecture, and the Kashgar Prefecture, demonstrating a “four-wheel drive” evolution and a “core of three points” symbiotic development pattern. (3) The overall high-quality development of the tourism economy in Xinjiang is primarily constrained by regional innovation capacity. Regions with lower levels of high-quality development face challenges due to a lack of tourism market attractiveness and underdeveloped cultural and tourism resources. (4) Key factors affecting the high-quality development of Xinjiang’s tourism economy include information services, economic support, and tourism transportation, whereas resource elements and tourism services are considered secondary factors. Notably, factors such as increased Internet accessibility, rising disposable incomes, higher fixed-asset investment in the tertiary industry, and expanded highway infrastructure significantly affect the high-quality development of Xinjiang’s tourism economy.

Key words: tourism economy, high-quality development, spatiotemporal evolution, barrier degree model, factor analysis, gray correlation analysis