干旱区人居环境系统耦合协调的时空演变及作用机制研究——以新疆为例

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.262

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

干旱区人居环境受到干旱自然条件的制约呈现出系统失衡的态势，如何促进系统耦合协调对干旱区人居环境建设至关重要。为探索系统耦合协调视野下干旱区人居环境的时空演化机制，以新疆14地州市人居环境为研究对象，构建干旱区人居环境系统协调发展评价体系，基于5个子系统的耦合协调度模型，综合运用熵值法、GIS空间分析与结构方程模型，探索2003—2019年新疆人居环境系统耦合协调度的时空演变规律与耦合作用机制。研究表明：（1）在时间维度上，2003—2019年新疆人居环境系统的耦合度与耦合协调度均呈现波动上升趋势，14地州市之间增速不均匀。（2）在空间维度上，形成“中间高、两侧低、北高南低”的空间分布格局，在东西方向由“一字型”向“倒U型”演变，在南北方向由“一字型”向“U型”再到“斜线型”演变。（3）在作用机制方面，主要形成“人类系统→社会系统→居住系统→支撑系统”，以及“社会系统→自然系统”的作用路径，其作用效应依次为0.570、0.972、0.953、-1.189。其中，人类系统是干旱区人居环境协调发展的根本动力，通过社会系统正向或负向地间接作用于其他系统。

关键词: 干旱区人居环境, 系统耦合, 空间分析, 结构方程模型, 新疆

Abstract:

Human settlements in arid areas are restricted by the areas’ natural drought condition, which shows an obvious characteristic of system imbalance. Therefore, promoting system coupling and coordination is important for the construction of human settlements in arid areas. To explore the spatiotemporal evolution mechanism of the human settlements in arid areas from the perspective of system coupling coordination, this study considers the human settlements of 14 administrative regions of prefecture level in Xinjiang, China as the research object. An evaluation system is created for the coordinated development of human settlements in arid areas. Based on the coupling coordination degree model of five subsystems, this study comprehensively uses the entropy method, GIS spatial analysis, and structural equation model to explore the spatiotemporal evolution law and coupling mechanism of the coupling coordination degree of the human settlements system in Xinjiang from 2003 to 2019. The results show the following: (1) Time dimension: from 2003 to 2019, the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of the human settlements system in Xinjiang showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the growth rate was uneven among the 14 administrative regions of prefecture level. (2) Spatial dimension: forming the spatial distribution pattern of “high in the middle, low on both sides, high in the north and low in the south”, evolving from “one-line type” to “inverted U type” in the east-west direction, and from “one-line type” to “U type” and then to “oblique line type” in the north-south direction. (3) Mechanism of action: mainly formed the path of “human system→social system→residential system→support system”, and “social system→natural system”, the effect is respectively 0.570, 0.972, 0.953, and -1.189. Among them, the human system is the fundamental driving force for the coordinated development of human settlements in arid areas, and affects other systems positively or negatively through the social system.

Key words: human settlements in arid area, system coupling, space analysis, structural equation model, Xinjiang

姚岚博, 冶建明, 王芸, 朱现伟. 干旱区人居环境系统耦合协调的时空演变及作用机制研究——以新疆为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(6): 1013-1023.

YAO Lanbo, YE Jianming, WANG Yun, ZHU Xianwei. Spatiotemporal evolution and mechanism of coupling coordination of human settlements system in arid area: A case of Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(6): 1013-1023.

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系统	潜在变量	观测指标	单位	性质	权重
新疆人居环境系统	自然系统	年平均气温	℃	正向	0.1091
		年平均降水量	mm	正向	0.1263
		年日照时数	h	正向	0.1027
		水资源总量	10⁸ m³	正向	0.1469
		水土流失治理面积	10³ hm²	正向	0.2899
		空气质量达到及好于二级天数的占比	%	正向	0.1281
		工业能源消费总量	10⁴ t标准煤	负向	0.0969
	人类系统	年末人口数	10⁴人	正向	0.1612
		城市人口密度	人·km^-2	正向	0.2977
		人口自然增长率	%	正向	0.1592
		非农业人口占总人口的比例	%	正向	0.1814
		城镇登记失业率	%	负向	0.2006
	社会系统	人均GDP	元	正向	0.1131
		第二产业产值占地区生产总值比重	%	正向	0.0857
		第三产业产值占地区生产总值比重	%	正向	0.1201
		全社会固定资产投资	10⁴元	正向	0.1734
		各级各类学校数	个	正向	0.1584
		每万人口医疗卫生机构床位数	张	正向	0.1009
		文化、体育与娱乐业固定资产投资	10⁴元	正向	0.2483
	居住系统	建成区面积	km²	正向	0.2392
		城镇人均住房建筑面积	m²	正向	0.2402
		房地产开发投资完成额	10⁴元	正向	0.2571
		建成区绿化覆盖率	%	正向	0.1002
		人均公园绿地面积	m²	正向	0.1633
	支撑系统	城市用水普及率	%	正向	0.0598
		城市燃气普及率	%	正向	0.0581
		供热面积	10⁴ m²	正向	0.2026
		人均日生活用水量	L	正向	0.2097
		污水处理率	%	正向	0.1561
		生活垃圾处理率	%	正向	0.1005
		人均道路面积	m²	正向	0.2133

耦合协调度	耦合协调度等级	耦合协调度	耦合协调度等级
0.00~0.09	极度失调	0.50~0.59	勉强耦合协调
0.10~0.19	严重失调	0.60~0.69	初级耦合协调
0.20~0.29	中度失调	0.70~0.79	中级耦合协调
0.30~0.39	轻度失调	0.80~0.89	良好耦合协调
0.40~0.49	濒临失调	0.90~1.00	优质耦合协调

年份	Moran’s I指数	Z得分	P值
2003	-0.213	-0.539	0.590
2008	-0.170	-0.359	0.720
2013	-0.328	-1.039	0.299
2019	-0.282	-0.779	0.436

理论假设	作用路径	实际估计值	近似标准误差	临界比率	作用效应
H1	自然系统→人类系统	-0.212	0.285	-0.743	-0.263
H2	居住系统→人类系统	0.530	0.318	1.665	1.139
H3	人类系统→社会系统	1.315	0.390	3.373	0.570^***
H4	社会系统→居住系统	0.905	0.061	14.938	0.972^***
H5	居住系统→支撑系统	0.267	0.061	4.392	0.953^***
H6	社会系统→自然系统	-0.639	0.079	-8.100	-1.189^***