甘肃省雷暴大风活动特征及潜势预报研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.110

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用甘肃省2017—2021年2115个气象观测站逐小时极大风速与闪电定位资料，结合欧洲中期天气预报中心集合预报数据，分析了甘肃省雷暴大风时空特征与对流参数统计特征，运用多指标叠套法开展了雷暴大风潜势预报研究。结果表明：（1）甘肃省雷暴大风主要发生在4—9月，其中5—7月发生次数占全年的65.3%。一天中雷暴大风集中出现在15:00—21:00， 17:00达到峰值，凌晨至上午发生次数极少。（2）雷暴大风分布与地形密切相关，具有中西部多、东部少，高原多、谷地少的分布特征；雷暴大风高值区出现在甘南高原，低值区出现在陇东和陇南。雷暴大风主要以8、9级大风为主，10级以上主要出现在河西地区和甘南高原。（3）基于对流参数和指标阈值得到了甘肃省雷暴大风的潜势预报概率产品，通过个例检验，预报落区与实际发生区域有较好的一致性，研究结果表明该方法对甘肃省雷暴大风预报具有一定的参考性。

关键词: 雷暴大风, 活动特征, 潜势预报, 甘肃省

Abstract:

Based on hourly extreme wind speed and lightning localization data from 2115 observation stations in Gansu Province, China for the period from 2017 to 2021, combined with ECMWF ensemble forecasting data, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics as well as the convective parameter characteristics of thunderstorm were analyzed. The potential prediction of thunderstorm was conducted using a multi-index nested method. The results indicate that thunderstorm primarily occur from April to September, with the highest frequency from May to July, accounting for 65.3% of the total occurrences. The hourly occurrence of thunderstorm is concentrated between 15:00 and 21:00, peaking at 17:00. The spatial distribution of thunderstorm is strongly influenced by the terrain in Gansu Province. Spatially, the frequency of thunderstorm decreases from west to east. Thunderstorm are more frequent in plateaus than in valleys, with the highest occurrences observed in the Gannan Plateau and the lowest in southeastern Gansu Province. Thunderstorm in Gansu Province predominantly fall into categories 8 and 9, while those above category 10 mainly occur in the Hexi Region and Gannan Plateau. Potential forecast probability products for thunderstorm in Gansu Province were obtained based on convective parameters and indicator threshold. Test results reveal a strong concurrence between the forecasted and actual occurrence areas, providing a significant reference value to improve the thunderstorm forecast in Gansu Province.

Key words: thunderstorm, characteristic, potential prediction, Gansu Province

谭丹, 聂灿齐, 黄武斌, 李文瑶, 谢丽君. 甘肃省雷暴大风活动特征及潜势预报研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(12): 2083-2092.

TAN Dan, NIE Canqi, HUANG Wubin, LI Wenyao, XIE Lijun. Characteristic and potential prediction of thunderstorm in Gansu Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(12): 2083-2092.

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区域	自然地理区	行政区划
河西	河西	酒泉市、嘉峪关市、张掖市、金昌市、武威市
河东	陇中	兰州市、白银市、定西市、临夏州
	陇东	庆阳市、平凉市
	陇南	天水市、陇南市
	甘南	甘南州

类型	物理量参数			中位数
类型	物理量参数	4月	5月	6月	7月	8月	9月
水汽	FH500	2.5	1.8	2.7	2.8	2.7	2.4
	FH700	3.6	2.6	2.3	3.2	3.3	2.4
	IFVQ700	-0.2	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.3
	IFVQ850	-0.5	-0.3	-0.4	-0.5	-0.3	-0.4
热力	CAPE	129.6	60.7	107.8	164.4	117.0	121.2
	K	17.1	15.1	16.8	21.9	21.3	18.0
	LI	-0.5	-0.8	0.3	-0.9	-1.1	-1.9
	A	8.6	6.3	6.1	5.5	4.5	7.7
	SI	5.6	4.9	5.3	3.8	3.9	3.7
动力	D850	-1.8	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.7
动力	W500	-2.4	-0.7	-0.8	-0.7	-0.3	-0.3

参数	阈值	参数	阈值	参数	阈值
FH500	2.5	CAPE	110.0	A	6.0
FH700	2.8	K	18.4	D850	-0.6
IFVQ700	-0.2	LI	-0.7	W500	-0.6
IFVQ850	-0.4	SI	4.5