新疆区域经济联系网络时空格局演变

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.117

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以新疆15个地州市为研究对象，运用区域流强度模型和引力模型，分析2010—2019年新疆辐射能力以及区域间的经济联系，采用社会网络分析方法探究经济联系网络结构演变特征，为优化新疆区域经济网络结构和区域经济一体化发展提出建议。结果表明：（1）区域流强度整体表现为北高南低的发展格局，10 a间平均提升率达60%，以乌鲁木齐市和喀什地区为首区域流强度相关指标增长最为显著，但中心区域的辐射带动能力总体较弱。（2） 2019年新疆弱经济联系数量占比降至48.57%，低等级经济联系格局显著，逐步形成以乌鲁木齐市为中心、克拉玛依市和石河子市为次中心的放射状空间联系格局，10 a间经济联系整体略有增长，过程中虹吸效应远大于涓滴效应。（3）网络中心势2019年达63.61%，整体中心性水平以极化效应为主，区域经济发展不均衡，凝聚子群内部成员不断发生变化，空间分割现象显著。新疆整体经济联系时空网络格局“核心-边缘”现象显著，呈现出“东北强、西南弱”的空间分布格局。

关键词: 区域流强度, 经济联系, 社会网络分析, 新疆

Abstract:

Xinjiang is an underdeveloped region in China, and as the core area of the Western Development and the “Belt and Road”, it is an important gateway for China to open up to Central and South Asia. The linkages and development of Xinjiang’s regional economy are of great relevance to the quality development of the economy and its organic integration into the overall layout of the country’s opening up to the west. Using ArcGIS 10.2 and Ucinet 6.2 software, this study uses 2010, 2015, and 2019 as time points, relying on the regional flow model and gravity model, to measure regional flow intensity and regional economic linkages and analyze the economic network structure evolution of 15 prefectures and cities in Xinjiang, China over the decade in terms of point degree centrality and cohesive subgroups through social network analysis. The research results show the following: (1) Regional flow intensity shows high and low development patterns in the north and south, respectively, with an average improvement rate of 60% over the decade, with Urumqi City and Kashgar region leading the way in terms of regional flow intensity-related indicators, with both partially increasing, but the core drive of the central region is generally slightly weaker, and the radiation range and intensity should be strengthened. (2) The number of weak economic ties in Xinjiang dropped to 48.57% in 2019, but the pattern of low-level economic ties is significant. Xinjiang’s regional economic linkages have not fully formed a network and still suffer from development deficiencies, gradually forming a radial spatial linkage pattern with Urumqi City as the center and Karamay City and Shihezi City as sub-centers; however, the overall degree of economic linkage enhancement over the decade is not high, and the siphoning effect is significantly greater than the trickle-down effect in the process. (3) The structure of Xinjiang’s economic linkage network from 2010 to 2019 remains unstable, with the central potential of the network reaching 63.61% in 2019. Regions with strong economic linkages have strong agglomeration, diffusion, and resource control capabilities over the surrounding areas and show a higher degree of point centrality in the network. The spatial segmentation phenomenon is severe, and the overall spatiotemporal network pattern of economic ties in Xinjiang has a significant “core-edge” phenomenon, showing a spatial distribution pattern of “strong in the northeast and weak in the southwest”.

Key words: regional flow intensity, economic connection, social network analysis, Xinjiang

李南, 李晓东, 刘想, 刘柏伶. 新疆区域经济联系网络时空格局演变[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(6): 1978-1987.

LI Nan, LI Xiaodong, LIU Xiang, LIU Bailing. Evolution of spatial and temporal pattern of regional economic connection network in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(6): 1978-1987.

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地州市	总外向功能量			区域流强度			区域流倾向度
地州市	2010年	2015年	2019年	2010年	2015年	2019年	2010年	2015年	2019年
乌鲁木齐市	14.76	20.09	19.23	60.41	141.19	183.67	0.33	0.28	0.26
克拉玛依市	7.73	8.27	6.21	30.16	61.97	61.30	0.46	0.43	0.33
石河子市	3.81	4.24	3.37	13.43	28.96	27.04	0.42	0.41	0.39
吐鲁番市	2.32	2.09	1.57	6.77	12.45	12.54	0.25	0.24	0.16
哈密市	1.45	1.87	1.86	4.66	11.39	15.23	0.18	0.19	0.18
昌吉州	2.80	5.16	3.65	9.21	31.97	28.68	0.15	0.21	0.17
伊犁州直	3.06	3.98	3.58	8.72	21.50	23.97	0.12	0.14	0.12
塔城地区	7.74	8.04	1.12	21.61	42.83	7.80	0.43	0.41	0.10
阿勒泰地区	2.59	3.09	1.87	7.44	16.96	13.01	0.28	0.34	0.21
博州	2.56	1.86	1.28	7.66	9.77	8.86	0.35	0.22	0.18
巴州	1.84	2.22	2.34	5.80	13.41	18.75	0.11	0.11	0.11
阿克苏地区	2.31	3.85	2.81	6.65	20.31	19.14	0.13	0.18	0.13
克州	1.49	1.75	1.65	3.70	9.17	11.27	0.33	0.31	0.23
喀什地区	5.25	6.87	7.56	15.00	39.64	50.12	0.27	0.26	0.22
和田地区	2.69	4.07	6.12	7.70	21.48	41.63	0.28	0.32	0.34

地州市	2010年	2015年	2019年
乌鲁木齐市	94.144	94.390	95.012
克拉玛依市	47.586	50.588	52.526
石河子市	53.708	56.374	47.288
吐鲁番市	37.295	47.091	32.607
哈密市	37.412	42.873	33.898
昌吉州	36.645	41.595	39.670
伊犁州直	31.880	35.580	33.564
塔城地区	30.267	32.441	31.649
阿勒泰地区	30.521	32.852	32.043
博州	30.895	33.791	32.666
巴州	35.048	35.142	35.557
阿克苏地区	30.308	32.347	32.368
克州	32.207	34.001	35.365
喀什地区	30.236	32.301	31.648
和田地区	30.545	33.178	32.379
平均值	39.246	42.303	39.883