多维度视角下新疆农村经济可持续发展

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 科技进步与水土资源是促进经济可持续发展的有力杠杆及资源保证，劳动力是农村经济发展的重要主体。运用生态足迹理论计算了1990-2015年的新疆农村生态人口承载力，该指标代表了农村经济可持续发展水平，并建立与农业全要素生产率、科技投入占总投入比率、水资源灌溉利用率、耕地复耕指数、新疆劳动力转移、劳动力转移性收入的VAR模型。研究结果表明：新疆农村人均资源占有量不断地增大，可承载生态人口数量逐年下降；科技投入目前对于新疆农村经济可持续发展的影响并不明显，短期看来，农业全要素生产率对于其发展有抑制作用，但长期看来有巨大的促进作用；在短期，水资源灌溉利用率有抑制作用，但在长期，有拉动作用；耕地复耕指数长期有抑制作用；短期来说，劳动力转移和劳动力转移性收入对于其发展有促进作用，长期有抑制作用。

关键词: 可持续发展, 科技进步, 水土开发, 劳动力转移

Abstract: The sustainable economy development depends on the science and technology progress and the land and water resources. The former is a powerful lever and the latter guarantee the resources. Needless to say, the labor force is an important subject of the economic development. Based on the ecological footprint models, this study estimated the ecological footprint and carrying capacity of the rural areas in Xinjian, China during the period from 1990 to 2015, which represents the level of rural sustainable development, and used the VAR model to analyze the relationship between sustainable rural economy development and the agricultural total factor productivity, the ratio of the investment on science and technology to the total investment, the water resource utilization rate, the cultivated land resumption index, the transfer of labor force,and the labor transfer income. The results showed that the average resource per capita in the rural areas was increased,but the ecological population was decreased year by year. On the sustainable development of rural economy,the effect of science and technology investment was not obvious. The agricultural total factor productivity seemed to have a negative effect in short term, but in long term it has a great promoting effect. The water resources utilization rate had an inhibitory effect in short term, but in the long term, it has a catalyst effect. The cultivated land resumption index had the restraining effect in the long term. The labor force transfer and its corresponding income will promote the rural economy development in the short term, but it seems to have a restraining effect in the long run.

Key words: sustainable development of rural economy, Scientific and technological progress, Soil and water development, Labor transfer

中图分类号:

F320.3

李光明, 刘丹玉. 多维度视角下新疆农村经济可持续发展[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(3): 668-678.

LI Guang-ming, LIU Dan-yu. Sustainable development of rural economy in Xinjiang from the perspective of multidimensional[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(3): 668-678.

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