基于SPEI的辽西地区气象干旱时空分布特征

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 干旱是辽西地区最为频繁的自然灾害之一，已严重制约人们的生活和经济发展。以辽宁省西部作为研究区域，借助该区8个气象站点1960-2015年逐月气温、降水数据，计算年、季、月时间尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI），并进行Mann-Kendall 趋势变化和ArcGIS空间可视化分析，揭示了辽西地区近56a气象干旱的时间变化趋势，以及干旱频率和干旱强度的空间分布特征。结果表明：近56a辽西地区干旱发生频率呈现上升趋势，尤其是21世纪以来；季节干旱变化趋势不甚明显，各季节均有干旱发生，其中秋季干旱最严重；辽西各地区均有干旱发生，在年尺度、季尺度和月尺度下发生频率分布不均，总体呈西部频率高东部频率低的趋势；21世纪以来发生连续干旱次数较多，干旱发生强度呈现西南强，东北弱的分布特征，高值中心在建平。

关键词: 气象干旱, SPEI指数, 时空分布, 辽西地区

Abstract: Drought is one of the frequent natural disasters in the western region of Liaoning Province, and has seriously limited the production and living of people and economic development. In this paper, taking the western region of Liaoning Province as the research object, the daily temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 2015 were collected to calculate the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index( SPEI )at different scales in one month, three months and twelve months. Combined with M-K method and ArcGIS spatial visualized analysis, temporal evolution tendency, frequency and intensity of drought occurrence distribution features of the region were revealed. The results show as follows:(1)Drought in western region of Liaoning Province began in 1968, and the drought frequency increased later; there were three times of continuous drought in 1960-2015, and the most serious one happened from 2000 to 2002. SPEI index decreased by 0.12·(10 a)^-1 in recent 56 years, indicating the increasing trend of drought. At the 0.05 significance level, mutation began in 1995. At seasonal scale, drought occurred in spring and summer were more serious, but the general trend was relatively stable. Autumn linear trend declined significantly, in contrast, it showed a slight rise tendency in winter. Interannual variation of seasonal drought showed fluctuation change.(2)The drought frequency showed different distribution at different scales in the western region of Liaoning Province. The frequency occurred at annual scale(22%-32%)was all less than that at month scale(33%-37%), Jianping was the high value center. Frequency in summer and autumn was higher, and the maximum value was above 35%; both of them decreased progressively from southeast to northwest, the high value center was Jinzhou. The drought intensity was strong in the southwest and weak in the northeast, the strongest place was Jianping(24%). The temporal distribution shows that, Jianping and Chaoyang had the most times of continuous drought, however, the longest time happened in Xingcheng and Suizhong. Large range of durative droughts occurred in 1961, the second half of 1983 and 21^st century. SPEI index, which considered the element of warming under global warming, and selected precipitation and evaporation as the indicators, has favorable applicability in the western region of Liaoning Province, it is available to reflect the spatio-temporal distribution characteristic of drought in recent 56 years. This paper can provide a theoretical basis and references for the drought monitoring, assessment and early warning.

Key words: meteorological drought, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, spatio-temporal distribution, the western region of Liaoning Province

中图分类号:

P429

何鑫, 吴吉东, 李颖, 冯玉. 基于SPEI的辽西地区气象干旱时空分布特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2017, 40(2): 340-347.

HE Xin, WU Ji-dong, LI Ying, FENG Yu. Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of meteorological drought in western region of Liaoning Province based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J]. , 2017, 40(2): 340-347.

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