新疆风灾时空分布特征分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.05.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

风灾是新疆危害较重的气象灾害,其灾害的时空分布对风灾防御意义重大。利用1980-2019年新疆86县（市）死亡人数、倒塌房屋数、倒塌棚圈数、牲畜死亡数、农作物受灾面积以及风灾的出现次数6种风灾要素数据,通过构建风灾灾损指数,统计检验各类指数的概率密度服从伽玛分布,并进行灾损等级划分,分析风灾时空分布特征。结果表明：近40 a来新疆风灾灾损呈波动性上升趋势,尤其是1998年以后风灾损失呈偏重发生;春季是新疆风灾的高发季节,风灾各要素灾损在4、5月占全年的67%~90%;夏季风灾损失相对春季较小,秋、冬两季风灾损失最小。全疆各县风灾各要素灾损空间分布表明,南疆风灾发生频次明显多于北疆,农作物受灾面积主要多发、重发在天山两侧各县,死亡人数特重等级出现在南疆;风灾综合灾损特重、严重2个等级的区域主要集中在天山南麓哈密市至阿克苏地区一带以及喀什地区、和田地区等地,其中阿克苏地区风灾灾损最严重。

关键词: 风灾, 灾损指数, 等级划分, 时空分布, 新疆

Abstract:

Wind disaster is one of the most serious meteorological disaster occurrences in Xinjiang, China. Its temporal and spatial distributions are of great significance to wind disaster prevention. Based on the data of six types of disasters that occurred in Xinjiang during the period of 1980-2019, we calculated herein the yearly and monthly accumulated values of the corresponding six disaster factors, namely the number of deaths, collapsed houses, collapsed sheds, number of livestock deaths, affected area of crops, and number of wind disasters from 86 in the county-level city (prefecture-level city). We then constructed a wind disaster damage index (Z) that obeys the Γ distribution and has passed the significance test by using the ratio weighting and linear dimensionless methods to classify the abovementioned six factors into four categories of mild, moderate, severe, and extra severe. The assessment results suggest that the wind disaster losses in Xinjiang have shown a wavelike increase in the recent 40 years. These losses reached the extra severe level for the six factors over these 40 years. For disasters that occurred after 1998, five of these six factors became more serious beyond 2005, which may be related to the increase of the crop areas. The result of the wind disaster proportion in each month shows that these wind disasters mainly occur in April and May, accounting for 67%-90% of that of the whole year. This demonstrates that spring is a critical season, during which wind disasters happen with the highest frequency and the biggest loss over Xinjiang. Compared with those during spring, the disaster losses during the other seasons are smaller, especially for autumn and winter. Thus, focusing on disaster prevention and relief during spring is important. As regards the spatial distribution of wind disasters, the disaster areas in southern Xinjiang are always larger than those in northern Xinjiang. The crop losses are frequently located in the sides of Tianshan Mountain. The high rate of the number of deaths was also observed in southern Xinjiang. The distribution of the composite damage index of wind disasters further suggests that the severe and extra severe grades of wind disasters were concentrated in Turpan, Aksu, and Kashi Prefectures. Only severe-grade events happen in Shihezi and Fuhai county-level cities (prefecture-level cities) in northern Xinjiang. The losses are the most serious in Aksu because of its larger crop areas and intensive flow downward Tianshan Mountain. Aksu, Bayingolin, Kashi, and Hotan Prefectures in southern Xinjiang and Turpan and Hami City in eastern Xinjiang generally always suffer from severe wind damages, requiring the government to provide prevention measures.

Key words: wind disaster, damage index, grade division, spatial-temporal distribution, Xinjiang

张太西,王慧,余行杰. 新疆风灾时空分布特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(5): 1281-1289.

ZHANG Taixi,WANG Hui,YU Xingjie. Spatial-temporal distribution of wind disasters in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(5): 1281-1289.

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参数	出现次数（A）	死亡人数（B）	倒塌房屋数（C）	倒塌棚圈数（D）	牲畜死亡数量（E）	受灾面积（F）	县(市)综合灾损（G）	年综合灾损（H）
实际灾损最大值	77	28	2460	3572	46069	475312	-	-
指数平均值（μ）	0.30	0.15	0.17	0.09	0.13	0.14	0.19	0.24
指数方差（σ²）	0.04	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.04
形状参数（α）	2.30	0.74	0.77	0.27	0.53	0.74	2.30	1.54
尺度参数（β）	0.13	0.20	0.22	0.32	0.24	0.19	0.08	0.16
判识统计量（V）	3.65	9.19	4.80	9.31	7.30	6.27	4.56	8.23

要素	特重（1级）	严重（2级）	较重（3级）	一般（4级）
累积分布函数（K）	K>0.90	0.75<K≤0.90	0.50<K≤0.75	K≤0.50
出现次数（A）	A>0.56	0.40<A≤0.56	0.26<A≤0.40	A≤0.26
死亡人数（B)	B>0.37	0.21<B≤0.37	0.09<B≤0.21	B≤0.09
倒塌房屋数(C)	C>0.41	0.23<C≤0.41	0.10<C≤0.23	C≤0.10
倒塌棚圈数(D)	D>0.26	0.09<D≤0.26	0.02<D≤0.09	D≤0.02
牲畜死亡数量（E）	E>0.34	0.17<E≤0.34	0.06<E≤0.17	E≤0.06
受灾面积（F）	F>0.34	0.19<F≤0.34	0.08<F≤0.19	F≤0.08
县（市）综合灾损（G）	G>0.35	0.25<G≤0.35	0.16<G≤0.25	G≤0.16
年综合灾损(H)	H>0.51	0.33<H≤0.51	0.19<H≤0.33	H≤0.19