不同水平分辨率BCC_CSM模式对中亚夏季降水模拟能力评估

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 地处干旱和半干旱气候区的中亚地区脆弱的生态环境对气候变化非常敏感，提高气候模式在中亚地区的模拟能力为应对未来气候变化制订科学的措施非常必要。利用两种分辨率的北京气候中心BCC_CSM模式（低分辨率BCC_CSM1.1模式和高分辨率BCC_CSM1.1m模式）提供的1948-2012年间CMIP5历史模拟试验结果系统评估了不同水平分辨率BCC_CSM气候模式对中亚夏季降水的模拟性能，并进一步揭示了水平分辨率对模式性能的影响，同时探讨了可能原因。结果表明：提高模式水平分辨率能够较明显地改善BCC_CSM气候模式对中亚夏季降水年际变率和长期变化趋势的模拟能力，但对整个中亚地区以及中亚西部地区夏季降水气候平均态的改善并不明显。相对于BCC_CSM1.1模式，BCC_CSM1.1 m模式对中亚东部地区夏季降水气候平均态、年际变率以及长期变化趋势的改善比西部地区更加显著。BCC_CSM1.1 m模式改善了对中亚地区夏季大尺度和对流性降水的长期变化趋势以及大尺度降水的气候平均态和年际变率的模拟能力，但对对流性降水气候平均态以及年际变率的模拟效果变得更差。总的说来，BCC_CSM1.1 m模式对中亚夏季总降水模拟性能的提高主要归功于对大尺度降水模拟的明显改善。机制分析表明提高模式水平分辨率能够改善BCC_CSM气候模式对200 hPa西风环流以及850 hPa环流场的模拟进而提高对中亚夏季降水的模拟性能。

关键词: 中亚, 降水, 夏季, BCC_CSM, 水平分辨率

Abstract: The ecological environment over Central Asia which is characterized by semi-arid and arid climates is highly fragile and very sensitive to climate change. It is necessary and valuable to improve the climate models' performance over Central Asia for policy makers to make policies and take actions in response to the climate changes in the future. In this study, based on the output of the CMIP5 historical experiment during 1948-2011, the performance of Beijing Climate Center Climate system model(BCC_CSM) with different horizontal resolutions (BCC_CSM1.1 with coarse resolution and BCC_CSM1.1m with fine resolution) in simulating the summer precipitation over Central Asia during 1948-2011 was evaluated and the possible causes related to the impact of horizontal resolution on the model's performance were also further analyzed and discussed. Results show that increasing horizontal resolution can obviously improve the simulation of inter-annual variability and long term trends of summer precipitation over Central Asia, but has limited improvement in simulating the climatic mean precipitation over the entire Central Asia and western Central Asia. Compared with BCC_CSM1.1 model, BCC_CSM1.1m shows much higher improvement in simulating the climatic mean, inter-annual variability and long term trends of summer precipitation over east Central Asia than over west Central Asia. Meanwhile, BCC_CSM1.1m model shows better performance in simulating the long term trends of convective and large scale precipitation, climatic mean and inter-annual variability of large scale precipitation as well. However, increasing model horizontal resolution tends to deteriorate the convective precipitation simulation. Overall, the improvement of the summer total precipitation simulation over Central Asia in the BCC_CSM1.1m model with finer horizontal resolution is attributed to the improved large scale precipitation simulation, compared with BCC_CSM1.1 model. Further mechanism analysis suggests that increasing model horizontal resolution can contribute to the improvement of the simulated westerlies at 200 hPa level and the atmospheric circulations at 850 hPa level, which leads to a better simulation of the summer precipitation over Central Asia in BCC_CSM1.1m model than that in BCC_CSM1.1 model.

Key words: Central Asia, precipitation, summer, BCC_CSM, horizontal resolution

中图分类号:

P462.61

吴昊旻, 黄安宁, 姜燕敏, 赵勇. 不同水平分辨率BCC_CSM模式对中亚夏季降水模拟能力评估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(6): 1305-1318.

WU Hao-min, HUANG An-ning, JIANG Yan-min, ZHAO Yong. Evaluation of the performance of BCC_CSM Climate Model with different horizontal resolution in simulating the summer precipitation over Central Asia[J]. , 2016, 39(6): 1305-1318.

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