关中-天水城市群与环长株潭城市群经济影响因素作用特征分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 依据面板数据分析结果将关中-天水城市群和环长株潭城市群的经济发展影响因素分为共有要素、主导要素和其他要素三类，并通过向量自回归分析、脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析分别对各类影响因素的作用强度与特征进行分析与对比分析。结果表明：（1）关中-天水城市群的市场发育程度弱于环长株潭城市群，市场条件的优化将显著增强区域经济发展活力。（2）环长株潭城市群流通能力的发展超前于该城市群的发展需求，对当地经济发展形成暂时性负担。（3）关中-天水城市群以科技发展为主导的经济模式将保持长久强劲的推动力。（4）环长株潭城市群以第二产业为主导动力，但是这一驱动力并不足以支撑该城市群的持续发展，应当对其进行调整。

关键词: 影响因素, 计量经济, 城市群, 中西部地区, 对比分析

Abstract: With the urban agglomerations as the growth poles of regions,the development of economic system of urban agglomeration is the circulation and interaction in the region. Therefore,it is important to compare those urban agglomerations with similar quality,history,construction,development orientation,etc.,in order to present some references. This paper chose the Guanzhong-Tianshui Economic Region Urban Agglomeration of northwest China and the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan "3+5" Urban Agglomeration of central China(abbreviated to "Changzhutan") as the cases. The paper used the panel data regression to divide the economic development factors into three groups:common,dominant and others. Then,in order to enrich the theoretical thinking about the characteristics and the differentiation of the economic development under the background about "the balanced development of the central and western regions of China",the paper tried to use VAR,IRF and VD methods to analyze and compare the action intensity and features of each factor. The result showed as follows:Firstly,the degree of market development of Guanzhong-Tianshui was weaker than that of Changzhutan. And the regional economic momentum could be stronger when the market conditions improved. Secondly,the transport level of Changzhutan had gotten ahead of its current needs,and limited the development. With the economic environment and conditions improved,the limitation would vanish. Thirdly,science and technology promoted Guanzhong-Tianshui economic growth permanently. So,this urban cluster,maybe,could be built as the regional creative economic center. Finally,as the core power of Changzhutan,the secondary industry could not promote this region developing fast and permanently. And,this industry was not suit for the development strategy of ecological cities. Therefore, the industry structure needed to be restructured. Generally speaking,the paper used economic methods to compare the economic features of those two urban agglomerations,tried to discover the characteristics and models, and made up the gap that the individuality we just focused before. Therefore,this paper could give some interesting thoughts for requirement of "the Belt and Road Initiative" strategy.

Key words: influence factors, quantitative economy, inland urban agglomeration, One Belt and One Road, comparative analyze

中图分类号:

F290

黄玉兴, 陈忠暖, 陈业滨, 蔡永龙. 关中-天水城市群与环长株潭城市群经济影响因素作用特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2016, 39(5): 1135-1142.

HUANG Yu-xing, CHEN Zhong-nuan, CHEN Ye-bin, CAI Yong-long. Comparative analysis of factor features of economic development of Guanzhong-Tianshui and Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomerations[J]. , 2016, 39(5): 1135-1142.

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