关键词: 农地规模经营, 农户意愿, 影响因素, Binary Logistic回归模型

Abstract: At present large-scale land management becomes one of the most effective ways of resolving agriculture problems in China, Chinese farmers in different areas also have their own willingness on this issue. Also, there are some new breakthroughs both on rural land circulation and largescale land management in Shandan county, in the middle of Hexi Corridor. They have made a great progress in the field. Then in this paper, we will do a basic research on their large-scale land management. In order to carry out large-scale land management in the future, we need to acknowledge peasant’s willingness and influencing factors at first. We have searched for a large number of documents and thesis in this field, read them carefully. After have an original knowledge on this issue, we visit the local farmers and government, talk to them, discuss with them, and try our best to make quite a lot of useful questionnaire investigations papers. Finally 216 set of effective questionnaire papers have been selected, which come from eight villages and towns large-scale planting households and common farmers in Shandan County. The results of peasant’s willingness on large-scale land management as follows: seventy-nine households look forward to enlarge land scale, it holds up about 36.57%. sixty-eight households hope to decrease land scale, it holds up about 31.48%. Fifty-six households are willing to keep current scale, it holds up about 25.93%. The rest have no idea about it. Why do they make such different decisions? In order to explore the reasons, we do further research using qualitative and quantitative analysis of influencing factors mainly includes: peasant’s personal details, family conditions, technical training, government policy and so on. Binary Logistic model is widely used in the area of analyzing personal willingness and their influence factors. Based on the 216 set of effective date, a Binary Logistic model is set up to do further quantitative analysis to explain it accurately. We choose ten factors to do the research: householder’s schooling, farmers’ income, population, workforce’s quantity, family practical land area, agricultural skill training, rural land circulation market price, peasant’sawareness of government preferential policy, levels of family mechanization and science, famer worker’ s income and so on. All variables influences on farmer’s actual effect and Mechanism of action are basically accord with theory analysis. The model estimation shows that only 6 factors have significant impacts on the determination of large-scale land management. With help of using model, we find out the main reasons. The women and old men aging farmer workers have lower ability in working, so they prevent enlarging land scale and weaken Large-scale land management. Higher proportion of non-agriculture incomes is an important factor of discouraging farmers to manage more land, because they could earn much more money in other channels. farmers who own big family practical land area have more strong desire for larger scale land, because they are good at large-scale farming. The higher level of science and technology is technique basis of promoting land scale use, owing these high-technology, a few persons are able deal with more land. Local government also makes beneficial policy to encourage large-scale land management.

Key words: large-scale land management, households&rsquo, willingness, influencing factors, Binary Logistic model