关键词: 新亚欧大陆桥, 暴雨灾变, 灰色灾变预测, 新疆

Abstract: Starting from Shilehe and strectching westward to Alataw, Xinjiang section of the NewEurasian Continental Bridge is 1, 448. 75103 km long. Natural disasters caused by rainstormsare serious and occupy 76% of the total. In this paper, the occurring time of the rainstorm cataclysm events, including those occurred and will occur, is forecasted and verified by using greycataclysm forecast method. Firstly, the critical values of catastrophic rainstorms are determinedby analyzing the serious cataclysm events caused by rainstorms and occurred in 1975, 1979, 1987, 1989, 1992 and 1996 repectively along a typical section of Xinjiang Section of the NewEurasian Continental Bridge. Secondly, the temporal series of rainstorm cataclysm years is correspondingly fixd by using rainstorm cataclysm alignments. Thirdly, the GM (1, 1) sequenceresponding formula of cataclysm year alignments and the prediction formula of cataclysm yearsare obtained by using GM (1, 1) model. By analyzing the data, following conclusions can beobtained: (1) the curve of the relationship between the actual values and the forecasted valuesshows that the application of GM (1, 1) is practicable in forecasting the rainstorm cataclysmevents; (2) GM (1, 1) model has an extensive application in forecasting cataclysm events; (3) It is easy to forecast and has accurate prediction values. Based on which, two serious cataclysnrainstorms occurring in near future are forecasted, i. e. they will occur around 2003 and 2011 respectively.

Key words: the New Eurasian Continental Bridge, rainstorm cataclysm event, grey cataclysm forecast, Xinjiang