新疆旅游产业—经济发展—生态环境耦合态势分析及预测

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.04.30

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 旅游产业作为国家战略产业之一,在经济发展中起到了很大的贡献作用,旅游与经济的发展都以生态环境为主要依托,因此处理好三者之间的关系是实现可持续发展的关键。在构建旅游产业—经济发展—生态环境评价指标体系的基础上,运用耦合协调模型对新疆2008—2017年三大系统耦合协调发展进行综合实证研究,并利用灰色预测模型GM（1,1）对未来五年的耦合协调度进行预测。结果表明：2008—2017年新疆旅游产业—经济发展—生态环境系统综合发展状态可分为两种类型,其中2008—2010年为生态超前型,2011—2017年为经济超前型;三大系统之间具有较高的关联度,从时间维度上看,耦合协调度呈现波动上升的趋势,从协调等级上看,整体从初级协调逐步演变到中级协调;未来几年内,新疆三大系统的耦合协调度总体上呈现小幅增长的趋势,在2021年达到良好协调水平。

关键词: 耦合协调模型, 旅游产业, 经济发展, 生态环境, 新疆

Abstract: As one of the national strategic industries,tourism plays a vital role in supporting the development of related industries,creating employment opportunities,increasing tax revenue,and promoting the overall economic development. Tourism and economic development rely heavily on the ecological environment;however,rapid development tends to negatively affect the environment. Therefore,dealing with the relationship between the three is key to achieving sustainable development. Based on existing research,this paper selects 30 corresponding indicators to establish a tourism industry-economic development-ecological environment evaluation index composed of seven criteria,including the tourism market scale,economic benefits to tourism,tourism industry level,economic scale,economic structure characteristics,environmental pollution status,and environmental governance outcomes. This study also uses the entropy method to standardize the data and further calculate the weights of the indicators of the three systems. As a basis for constructing this evaluation index,this paper uses the coupling coordination model to conduct a comprehensive empirical study of the coupling coordination development of the tourism industry,economic development,and the natural environment in Xinjiang,China from 2008 to 2017. Subsequently,this study predicts the coupling coordination degree of the three systems for the next five years using a GM（1,1） forecasting model. The research demonstrates that the comprehensive evaluation index of the three systems all increase at different degrees. Among these,the economic development system increases the most. Although the tourism industry and ecological environment increase overall,they all decline in the short term under the influence of the economy and the overall social environment. The effect of development on the three sectors of the tourism industry,economic development,and the ecological environment in Xinjiang from 2008 to 2017 can be divided into two types. The comprehensive evaluation index of the natural environment from 2008 to 2010 was higher than that of the tourism industry and economic development,which is ecologically advanced. From 2011 to 2017,the comprehensive evaluation index of economic development was higher than that of the tourism industry and ecological environment. There is a high degree of correlation among the three systems. Over time,the coupling coordination degree shows a trend of rising volatility. Concerning coordination,overall coordination gradually evolves from primary coordination to intermediate coordination. The GM （1,1） forecasting model displayed a high degree of fitting. In the next few years,the coupling coordination degree of the three major systems in Xinjiang will slightly increase and reach a good coordination level in 2021.

Key words: coupling coordination model, tourism industry, economic development, ecological environment, Xinjiang

赵胡兰, 杨兆萍, 韩芳, 时卉, 王璀蓉, 郭姣姣. 新疆旅游产业—经济发展—生态环境耦合态势分析及预测[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(4): 1146-1154.

ZHAO Hu-lan, YANG Zhao-ping, HAN Fang, SHI Hui, WANG Cui-rong, GUO Jiao-jiao. Analysis and forecast of coupling situation among tourism industry-economic development-ecological environment in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(4): 1146-1154.

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