基于格网的青海省干旱灾害综合风险评估

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.06.07

干旱区地理 ›› 2018, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 1194-1203.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.06.07

基于格网的青海省干旱灾害综合风险评估

韩炳宏^1,2, 周秉荣^1,3, 吴让¹, 赵敏⁴, 乜国妍², 牛得草⁵, 傅华⁵

1 青海省防灾减灾重点实验室, 青海西宁 810001;
2 青海省海南州气象局, 青海海南 813000;
3 青海省气象科学研究所, 青海西宁 810001;
4 青海省玉树州气象局, 青海玉树 815000;
5 草地农业生态系统国家重点实验室兰州大学草地农业科技学院, 甘肃兰州 730020

收稿日期:2018-07-07 修回日期:2018-09-21 出版日期:2018-11-25
通讯作者: 周秉荣(1974-),男,青海湟中人,正研级高级工程师,主要从事农业气候资源区划与高寒生态气象方面的研究.E-mail:zbr0515@foxmail.com
作者简介:韩炳宏(1988-),男,甘肃会宁人,硕士,助理工程师,主要从事草地生态学与气象防灾减灾方面的研究.E-mail:hanbh13@lzu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0501903）；青海省软科学研究计划（2015-ZJ-606）资助

Grid-based estimation of drought disaster in Qinghai Province

HAN Bing-hong^1,2, ZHOU Bing-rong^1,3, WU Rang¹, ZHAO Min⁴, NIE Guo-yan², NIU De-cao⁵, FU Hua⁵

1 Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China;
2 Meteorology Station of Hainan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Hainan 813000, Qinghai, China;
3 Institute of Meteorological Science, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China;
4 Meteorology Station of Yushu Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Yushu 815000, Qinghai, China;
5 State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-ecosystem, College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, Gansu, China

Received:2018-07-07 Revised:2018-09-21 Online:2018-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 干旱灾害风险评估是执行区域性干旱灾害风险管理的重要举措，是有效实施气象防灾减灾工作的非工程性技术措施。随着气象现代化的逐步实施，干旱灾害风险评估技术和精度的重要性越加凸显。为科学、准确地评估青海省区域干旱的监测精度和干旱灾害风险等级，以青海省为例，采用青海省1961-2010年50个气象站潜在蒸散和降水数据，基于气象灾害风险度评估理论和方法，并根据《青海省地方干旱等级划分标准》，通过干旱灾害风险度模型和ArcGIS空间分析相结合的方法，较为系统地分析了青海省干旱灾害风险时空分布特征及其灾害风险等级。结果表明：近50 a以来，青海境内主要发生了不同程度的冬春季干旱。从时空分布特征来看，轻、中、重度干旱灾害分布和演化趋势基本一致，干旱灾害易发高发区主要分布于柴达木盆地西北部；环青海湖流域和共和盆地以及东部农业区局地处于中等风险水平，其余地区干旱灾害风险水平较低；从市、县、镇区域单元来看，茫崖、花土沟镇、冷湖及格尔木市干旱灾害风险较高，天峻、都兰、乌兰、共和、兴海、同德、贵南、同仁、化隆、循化及唐古拉等地次之，其余地区干旱灾害风险水平较低，青海境内干旱灾害的发生不仅受降水量影响，还与不同类型的下垫面密切相关。

关键词: 青海省, 干旱灾害, 风险度模型, 风险评估

Abstract: With the gradual implementation of meteorological modernization,the importance of the risk assessment technique as well as its precision about drought disaster is more prominent.While drought is one of the global meteorological disasters to a certain extent,the agricultural and animal husbandry production,ecological environment improvement and social and economic development have been severely restricted.The risk assessment of drought disaster is an important measure to carry out the risk management of regional drought disaster,and it is the non-engineering technical measure to implement the work of meteorological disaster prevention and reduction effectively.The risk assessment of drought disaster in Qinghai Province,China was studied by some scholars,but it was based on vector data of county domain units.Therefore,the results exaggerated the risk degree and spatial distribution of drought disaster,and the accuracy of disaster risk assessment was reduced.In order to assess regional drought monitoring accuracy and the risk levels of drought disaster in Qinghai Province scientifically and accurately,this paper used the potential evapotranspiration and precipitation data from 50 meteorology stations in Qinghai Province during the period from 1961 to 2010 to systematically analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and the risk levels based on the theory and methods of meteorological disaster risk estimation.This was also done with the methods of combining the drought disaster risk degree model and ArcGIS spatial analysis,according to the regional drought grading standard of Qinghai Province.The results showed that the winter and spring drought appeared in Qinghai Province with varying degrees in the period.From the spatial and temporal distribution perspective,the distribution and evolution trends of light,medium and heavy drought were basically identical.The areas prone to drought disaster or with high incidence of drought disaster were mainly located in the northwest of Qaidam Basin,while Qinghai Lake,Gonghe Basin and the eastern agricultural regions were at medium risk level.The rest shared the low levels of drought disaster risk; from the viewpoint of the administration unit,the drought disaster risks were higher in Mangya,Lenghu,Huatugou Town and Golmud City.The drought disaster risks in the regions including Tianjun,Dulan,Wulan,Gonghe,Xinghai,Tongde,Guinan,Tongren,Hualong,Xunhua and Tanggula,were in the medium levels.The rest were with the low levels.In addition,influenced by topography and geomorphology,the Mangya and Lenghu area were in a dry state throughout the whole year,which were more consistent with the reality.Thus,it could be seen that the occurrence of drought disaster in Qinghai Province was not only related to precipitation,but also related to the underlying surface of different types.

Key words: Qinghai Province, drought disaster, the risk model, the estimation of risk

中图分类号:

韩炳宏, 周秉荣, 吴让, 赵敏, 乜国妍, 牛得草, 傅华. 基于格网的青海省干旱灾害综合风险评估[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(6): 1194-1203.

HAN Bing-hong, ZHOU Bing-rong, WU Rang, ZHAO Min, NIE Guo-yan, NIU De-cao, FU Hua. Grid-based estimation of drought disaster in Qinghai Province[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(6): 1194-1203.

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