不同气候情景下环县柠条锦鸡儿分布及土壤碳储量特征

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不同气候情景下环县柠条锦鸡儿分布及土壤碳储量特征

Characteristics of Caragana korshinskii distribution and soil carbon storage in Huan County under different climate scenarios

不同气候情景下环县柠条锦鸡儿分布及土壤碳储量特征

Characteristics of Caragana korshinskii distribution and soil carbon storage in Huan County under different climate scenarios

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doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.407

干旱区地理 ›› 2025, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (5): 812-824.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.407 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2024407

吴双梅¹(), 周冬梅¹, 马静¹, 朱小燕¹, 张军¹(), 江晶², DONG Qinghan³

1.甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院，甘肃兰州 730070
2.甘肃农业大学管理学院，甘肃兰州 730070
3.比利时弗兰芒技术研究院，安特卫普摩尔 2400

收稿日期:2024-07-05 修回日期:2024-08-20 出版日期:2025-05-25 发布日期:2025-05-13
通讯作者: 张军（1977-），男，博士，教授，主要从事生态系统服务与碳中和研究. E-mail: zhangjun@gsau.edu.cn
作者简介:吴双梅（1999-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事生态系统服务与人工林碳储量估算研究. E-mail: 17794196372@163.com
基金资助:
甘肃省重点研发计划项目(23YFNA0036);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(21JR7RA811);甘肃省自然科学基金项目(24JRRA774);甘肃省林业和草原科技创新计划项目(LCKJCX202205);甘肃省教育厅产业支撑计划项目(2023CYZC-45)

WU Shuangmei¹(), ZHOU Dongmei¹, MA Jing¹, ZHU Xiaoyan¹, ZHANG Jun¹(), JIANG Jing², DONG Qinghan³

1. College of Resources and Environmental Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
2. College of Management, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
3. Flemish Institute for Technological Research, Mol 2400, Antwerpen, Belgium

Received:2024-07-05 Revised:2024-08-20 Published:2025-05-25 Online:2025-05-13

摘要： 全球气候变化和土地利用方式转变会对生态系统碳储量产生显著影响。造林可以增汇减排、改善生态环境，柠条锦鸡儿（Caragana korshinskii）作为中国西北地区大量栽植的灌木树种之一，预测其潜在适生区对造林区域的确定及固碳潜力评估具有重要意义。基于甘肃省庆阳市环县104条柠条锦鸡儿分布点数据和环境因子，运用优化后的MaxEnt模型预测了当代（2000s）及未来（2030s、2050s、2070s）其在环县的潜在分布格局，分析了影响其分布的主要环境因子，并结合土地利用数据划分了优先且稳定的造林区域，估算了未来时期环县柠条锦鸡儿的土壤碳储量。结果表明：（1）影响柠条锦鸡儿分布的主要环境因子为生长季月均辐射、气温季节性变动系数、高程、最暖季度平均气温和等温性。（2）柠条锦鸡儿当代潜在适生区主要分布在环县西部及北部地区，总适生区面积约占环县面积的16.59%。（3）未来气候情景中，低等排放情景（SSP126）下柠条锦鸡儿潜在适生区增长较快，而高等排放情景（SSP585）下涨幅较慢。（4）未来气候情景中，柠条锦鸡儿潜在分布的保留区保持较稳定，为连续且集中的面状，增加区域从西部和北部向中部延伸，丧失区域破碎化、分布零散，增加区与丧失区的分布格局表现为交替收缩和扩张趋势。（5）中等排放情景（SSP370）下，柠条锦鸡儿土壤碳储量增加较快，至2070s增加1.017×10⁶ t，增长2.1倍，而低等排放情景（SSP126）和高等排放情景（SSP585）下增加速度较慢。

关键词: 气候情景, 最大熵模型, 潜在适生区, 土壤碳储量, 柠条锦鸡儿

Abstract:

Global climate change and land use alterations significantly affect ecosystem carbon storage. Afforestation enhances carbon sequestration and reduces emissions, thereby improving ecological health. Caragana korshinskii, a widely planted shrub species in northwest China, has important implications for determining afforestation areas and assessing carbon sequestration potential by predicting its suitable habitat. Using 104 distribution points of C. korshinskii and environmental factors from Huan County, Qingyang City, Gansu Province of China, this study employed the optimized MaxEnt model to predict its potential distribution for the current (2000s) and future periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s). The study also analyzed the major environmental factors affecting its distribution, identified priority and stable afforestation areas using land use data, and estimated future soil carbon storage for C. korshinskii in Huan County. The results indicated the following: (1) The major environmental factors influencing the distribution of C. korshinskii include the mean monthly radiation during the growing season, the coefficient of seasonal variation in temperature, elevation, the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, and isothermality. (2) At present, the potential suitable areas for C. korshinskii are primarily distributed in the western and northern regions of Huan County, covering approximately 16.59% of the county’s total area. (3) Under future climate scenarios, the potential suitable areas for C. korshinskii are expected to expand, with greater growth under the low-emission scenario (SSP126) compared to the high-emission scenario (SSP585). (4) The stable areas of potential distribution for C. korshinskii remain relatively stable, forming continuous and concentrated patches. The expansion areas extend from the west and north toward the center, whereas the lost areas are fragmented and scattered, with a back-and-forth contracting and expanding trend in the distribution pattern of the increased areas and the lost areas. (5) Under the medium-emission scenario (SSP370), soil carbon storage of C. korshinskii is expected to increase rapidly, reaching 1.017×10⁶ t by the 2070s, representing a 2.1-fold increase. However, the rate of increase is slower than that under the low-emission scenario (SSP126) and the high-emission scenario (SSP585).

Key words: climate scenarios, MaxEnt model, potential suitable areas, soil carbon storage, Caragana korshinskii

吴双梅, 周冬梅, 马静, 朱小燕, 张军, 江晶, DONG Qinghan. 不同气候情景下环县柠条锦鸡儿分布及土壤碳储量特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(5): 812-824.

WU Shuangmei, ZHOU Dongmei, MA Jing, ZHU Xiaoyan, ZHANG Jun, JIANG Jing, DONG Qinghan. Characteristics of Caragana korshinskii distribution and soil carbon storage in Huan County under different climate scenarios[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(5): 812-824.

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时期	气候情景	面积/km²			变化率/%
时期	气候情景	增加	保留	丧失	增加率	保留率	丧失率
2030s	SSP126	528.40	1077.60	419.25	34.72	70.81	27.55
	SSP370	611.71	1124.17	371.21	40.19	73.87	24.39
	SSP585	525.34	1066.28	430.59	34.52	70.06	28.29
2050s	SSP126	608.49	1091.64	403.73	39.98	71.73	26.53
	SSP370	570.49	1062.45	432.89	37.49	69.81	28.45
	SSP585	541.77	1085.93	410.94	35.60	71.36	27.00
2070s	SSP126	682.51	1131.70	363.67	44.85	74.36	23.90
	SSP370	570.80	1120.15	376.74	37.51	73.60	24.76
	SSP585	561.49	1089.81	407.08	36.89	71.61	26.75

气候情景	时期	土壤碳储量/10⁶ t	较当代增加/10⁶ t	增加倍数
当代	2000s	0.484	-	-
SSP126	2030s	1.093	0.609	1.258
	2050s	2.027	1.543	3.188
	2070s	1.517	1.033	2.134
SSP370	2030s	1.101	0.617	1.275
	2050s	2.034	1.550	3.202
	2070s	1.501	1.017	2.101
SSP585	2030s	1.101	0.617	1.275
	2050s	2.023	1.539	3.180
	2070s	1.498	1.014	2.095

Just accepted

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Just accepted

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时期	生长年限/a	气候情景	土壤碳密度/kg·m^-2
2000s	0	-	0.660
2030s	15	SSP126	1.490
		SSP370	1.500
		SSP585	1.498
2050s	35	SSP126	2.761
		SSP370	2.772
		SSP585	2.756
2070s	55	SSP126	2.068
		SSP370	2.045
		SSP585	2.042

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