黄土高原退耕还林与植被恢复的空间错配格局及影响因素研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.722

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

植被恢复是生态恢复的前提，系统分析退耕还林强度与植被恢复的空间错配关系是科学制定生态保护与修复政策的基础。借助植被恢复潜力实现度和退耕还林强度的相对差异，分析了黄土高原植被恢复空间错配格局的时空变化特征，并运用地理加权回归对植被恢复空间错配格局的影响因素进行了探究。结果表明：（1） 2000—2022年黄土高原植被恢复效果不断提升，2022年植被恢复潜力实现度整体在0.75以上。青海南部和山西西部植被恢复的理论最大潜力值高于0.60，但潜力实现度低于0.65，是未来植被恢复的重点区域。（2）退耕区域内，退耕还林强度与植被恢复的空间错配指数值普遍高于0.70，表现为严重的空间不匹配，且空间错配现象正逐渐向整个区域扩散。（3）农村人口压力和农业产业结构是加剧黄土高原退耕还林强度与植被恢复空间错配的主要因素，其对黄土高原顺利实现退耕还林政策的生态目标带来挑战。未来，黄土高原应聚焦优化农业产业结构和提高城镇建设用地的集约化程度等政策措施，缓解退耕还林强度与植被恢复的空间错配关系。

关键词: 退耕还林, 植被恢复, 空间错配, 潜力实现度, 地理加权回归

Abstract:

Vegetation restoration is fundamental to ecological restoration. A systematic analysis of the spatial mismatch between the Grain for Green Project intensity and vegetation restoration is the basis of scientific ecological protection and restoration policies. Based on the relative difference between the realization degree of vegetation restoration potential and the Grain for Green Project intensity, this study analyzed the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of the spatial mismatch pattern of vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau, and explored its influencing factors by using geographical weighted regression. The results showed that: (1) The effect of vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau had continuously improved from 2000 to 2022, with the overall realization degree of vegetation restoration potential exceeding 0.75 in 2022. The theoretical maximum value of vegetation restoration potential in southern Qinghai and western Shanxi exceeded 0.60, but the potential realization degree was lower than 0.65, making these areas key for future vegetation restoration. (2) The spatial mismatch index of the Grain for Green Project intensity and vegetation restoration was generally higher than 0.70, indicating a serious spatial mismatch, and this mismatch was gradually spreading throughout the region. (3) Rural population pressure and agricultural industrial structure were the primary factors contributing to the spatial mismatch between the Grain for Green Project intensity and vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau, which brings challenges to the successful achievement of the ecological objectives of the Grain for Green Project. In the future, the Loess Plateau should focus on optimizing the agricultural industrial structure and increasing the intensification of urban construction land, so as to alleviate the spatial mismatch between the Grain for Green Project intensity and vegetation restoration.

Key words: the Grain for Green Project, vegetation restoration, spatial mismatch, potential realization degree, geographical weighted regression

王超, 何友均, 韩丽丽. 黄土高原退耕还林与植被恢复的空间错配格局及影响因素研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2025, 48(10): 1815-1827.

WANG Chao, HE Youjun, HAN Lili. Spatial mismatch pattern and its influencing factors between the Grain for Green Project and vegetation restoration in the Loess Plateau[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(10): 1815-1827.

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数据类型	数据名称	数据描述	数据来源	用途
土壤数据	土壤类型	数据类型为栅格格式，空间分辨率为1 km×1 km，利用ArcGIS 10.7将数据重采样为90 m×90 m	资源环境科学与数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn）	构建相似生境单元
DEM数据	高程、坡度、坡向	数据类型为栅格格式，空间分辨率为90 m×90 m	中国科学院地理空间数据云（https:// www.gscloud.cn）	构建相似生境单元
遥感产品	土地利用	数据类型为栅格格式，利用ArcGIS 10.7将数据重采样为90 m×90 m	武汉大学CLCD数据集（https://zenodo.org/record/5816591）	计算退耕还林政策强度
	EVI	数据类型为栅格格式，时间分辨率为16 d合成产品，空间分辨率为250 m×250 m，利用ArcGIS 10.7将数据重采样为90 m×90 m	Google Earth Engine	计算植被恢复潜力实现度
	FVC	数据类型为栅格格式，时间分辨率为30 d合成产品，空间分辨率为250 m×250 m，利用ArcGIS 10.7将数据重采样为90 m×90 m	地球资源数据云（http://www.gis5g.com）	稳健性分析
气象数据	年平均气温、年累计降水量	数据类型为TXT格式，时间分辨率为日值，空间分辨率为全国752个站点，利用R平台将数据转为栅格格式，利用ArcGIS 10.7对气象数据进行插值，并重采样至90 m×90 m	国家气象科学数据中心（https://data.cma.cn）	空间错配指数影响因素分析
社会经济数据	农村人口压力	农村人口数量占区域总人口的比重	2000—2022年《中国县域统计年鉴》、各省份《统计年鉴》
	农业产业结构	农业产值与地区生产总值的比重
	乡村经济水平	农村居民人均可支配收入占人均GDP的比重

变量	2005年	2010年	2015年	2022年
年平均气温	1.42	2.16	1.22	1.43
年累计降水量	1.25	2.17	1.18	1.64
农村人口压力	1.41	1.34	1.35	1.40
农业产业结构	2.02	2.11	1.75	1.33
乡村经济水平	1.54	1.74	1.38	1.09

年份	2005年	2010年	2015年	2022年
相关系数	0.71	0.72	0.79	0.83
常数项	0.44	0.45	0.37	0.26
决定系数（R²）	0.84	0.79	0.84	0.90
P值	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00