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Arid Land Geography >

2021 , Vol. 44 >Issue 5: 1365 - 1372

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.05.17

Earth Surface Process

Runoff changes of the Aksu River under different exploitation scenarios in the upper river

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  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2020-11-16

  Revised date: 2021-05-09

  Online published: 2021-09-22

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Abstract

The Sary-Jaz River originates in Kyrgyzstan, and its water inflow accounts for about 44.3% of the total water resources of the Aksu River, which is very useful for sustainable economic and social development of the Aksu River Basin. In recent years, Kyrgyzstan has planned to build an interbasin water transfer project in the Sary-Jaz River Basin (upstream of the Aksu River), affecting the water resources of the Aksu River Basin. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis of the runoff trend of the Sary-Jaz River Basin based on the data from hydrological stations in the Aksu River Basin and investigate the impacts of water resources on the lower Aksu River under various development scenarios. Based on the results from 1958 to 2015, the annual runoff of the Sary-Jaz River exhibited a significant increase. There was also a big difference in the annual runoff, mainly concentrated in July and August. Seasonal runoff tended to increase significantly in spring and winter, with a slight increase in summer and autumn. Among the decades of change, 1958 to 1959 were relatively low water levels, 1990 to 1999 were relatively high water levels, and the rest were normal water periods. Therefore, the Kyrgyzstan interbasin water transfer project will significantly impact the Aksu River runoff in the future. Based on a seasonal analysis, the interbasin water transfer project will substantially impact the Aksu River runoff, directly reducing the lower Aksu River runoff. Based on an annual analysis, the interbasin water transfer project will directly reduce the lower Aksu River runoff. Also, as water transfer increases, the runoff of the Aksu River Basin will continue to decline. The results obtained from this study can provide a reference for the Chinese government to address the adverse impacts of the interbasin water transfer project on the Aksu River runoff.

Key words： runoff; the exploitation scenarios; hydraulic engineering; multiple linear regression model; Aksu River; Sary-Jaz River

Cite this article

CHEN Shuo,DUAN Weili,LI Xiaoyang . Runoff changes of the Aksu River under different exploitation scenarios in the upper river[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021 , 44(5) : 1365 -1372 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.05.17

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