At present,general circulation models (GCMs) can represent the main features of the global atmospheric circulation reasonably well,but their capability in reproducing regional scale climatic details is rather limited owing to their low-resolution.As a result,there is a need to develop tools of downscaling GCM predictions of climate change to regional and local scales.Statistical downscaling are the main tools for downscaling.Statistical downscaling method is to build relation between large-scale climate elements (atmospheric circulation index) and regional climate (temperature,precipitation).Then,this relationship is tested by independent observation data.Finally,this relation is applied in the large-scale climate model to output information and predict the change trend of regional climate.The dynamic extended range forecast (DERF) has good prediction capability which provided the monthly average of ensemble forecast.Many studies have been made to statistically downscale large scale climatic information to regional level in East China by use of DERF's data.This paper focuses on the research of statistical downscaling method and its application over Shaanxi Province,China.Statistical downscaling method based on stepwise linear regressions and common empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) is applied in this paper.It has two predictors in this research.One is the monthly temperature data obtained at 96 observation stations in January and July from 1982 to 2015,which is provided by Shaanxi Meteorological Administration.The other is climatic predictors which are derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in January and July from 1961 to 2015,and the dynamic extended range forecast (DERF) product from National Climate Center of China were applied to predict temperature by using the forecast model and compared with the observed temperature.It is built prediction model between the large scale climate predictor and the observed temperature by use of statistical downscaling.The main results of this research can be summarized in the following items:EOF as for large scale climate main modal method and sea level pressure and altitude difference field as predictors are feasible;In January,the consistent anomaly symbol rate of simulated values and observed values greater than 60% reached 50 counties of the province's 96 counties,and the rate of most of the northern Shanbei,Guanzhong and the southern Shannan has reached 70% or so.In July,the consistent anomaly symbol rate of simulated values and observed values greater than 60% reached 60 counties of the province's 96 counties,and the symbol rate of Western Guanzhong and the southern Shannan reached 75% or so.
WEI Na, HE Chen-xin, LIU Pei-pei
. Predictive analysis of monthly temperature in Shaanxi Province based on statistical downscaling method[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2018
, 41(6)
: 1178
-1183
.
DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.06.05
[1] 李维京,陈丽娟.动力延伸预报产品释用方法的研究[J].气象学报,1999,57(3):338-345.[LI Weijing,CHEN Lijuan.Research on reexplanation and reanalysis method of dynamical extended rang forecast products[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,1999,57(3):338-345.]
[2] 陈丽娟,李维京,张培群,等.降尺度技术在月降水预报中的应用[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(6):648-655.[CHEN Lijuan,LI Weijing,ZHANG Peiqun,et al.Application of a new downscaling model to monthly precipitation forecast[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2003,14(6):648-655.]
[3] 李维京,张培群,李清泉.动力气候模式预测系统业务化及其应用[J].应用气象学报,2005,16(增刊):1-11.[LI Weijing,ZHANG Peiqun,LI Qingquan.Research and operational application of dynamical climate model prediction system[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2005,16(Supp):1-11.]
[4] 范丽军,符淙斌,陈德亮.统计降尺度法对未来区域气候变化情景预估的研究进展[J].地球科学进展.2005,20:320-329.[FAN Lijun,FU Congbin,CHEN Deliang.Review on creating future climate change scenarios by statistical downscaling techniques[J].Advance in Earth Sciences.2005,20:320-329.]
[5] 陈丽娟,李维京.月动力延伸预报产品的评估和解释应用[J].应用气象学报,1999,10(4):486-490.[CHEN Lijuan,LI Weijing.The score skill and interpretation of monthly dynamic extended rang forecast[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,1999,10(4):486-490.]
[6] 王世玉,钱永甫.P-σ九层区域气候模式对东亚区域气候季节与年际变化的模拟[J].大气科学,2003,27(5):798-810.[WANG Shiyu,QIAN Yongfu.Seasonal and interannual variation simulation of the regional climate of east Asia by a nine-level P-σ regional climate model[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2003,27(5):798-810.]
[7] 林纾,陈丽娟,陈彦山,等.月动力延伸预报产品在西北地区月降水预测中的释用[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(4):555-560.[LIN Shu,CHEN Lijuan,Chen Yanshan,et al.Interpretation of monthly dynamical extended range forecast products in northwest China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2007,18(4):555-560.]
[8] 严小冬,古书鸿.IEOF法在MDERF产品对贵州5月气温预测释用中的应用[J].贵州气象,2008,32(3):7-9.[YAN Xiaodong,GU Shuhong.IEOF method in MDERF product to Guizhou in May temperature prediction with application[J].Journal of Guizhou,2008,32(3):7-9.]
[9] 栗瑶,王红丽,刘健,等.黄河上游地区近千年气候变化的模拟重建[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(6):1023-1029.[LI Yao,WANG Hongli,LIU Jian,et al.Reconstruction of climate change over upper reaches of Yellow River Basin during Last Millennium[J].Arid Land Geography,2013,36(6):1023-1029.]
[10] 黄金龙,陶辉,苏布达,等.塔里木河流域极端气候事件模拟与RCP4.5情景下的预估研究[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(3):490-498.[HUANG Jinlong,TAO Hui,SU Buda,et al.Simulation of climate extreme events in the Tarim River Basin and projection under the RCP4.5 scenario[J].Arid Land Geography,2014,37(3):490-498.]
[11] 吴晶,罗毅,李佳,等.CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区模拟能力评价[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(3):499-508.[WU Jing,LUO Yi,LI Jia,et al.Evaluation of CMIP5 modes's simulation ability in the northwest arid areas of China[J].Arid Land Geography,2014,37(3):499-508.]
[12] WILBY R L,WIGLEY T M L.Downscaling general circulation model output:A review of methods and limitations[J].Progress in Physical Geography,1997,21:530-548.
[13] HUTH R.Statistical downscaling of daily temperature in central Europe[J].J Climate,2002,15:1731-1742.
[14] MO R,STRAUS D M.Statistical dynamical seasonal prediction bas-ed on principal component regression of GCM ensemble integrations[J].Monthly Weather Rev,2002,130(9):2167-2187.
