Collect ｜ Homepage Advertisement ｜ Contact us ｜ Message
Adv. search

Arid Land Geography >

2018 , Vol. 41 >Issue 4: 874 - 884

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.04.25

Spatio-temporal evolution pattern and influencing factors in synergetic development of industrialization,urbanization,informatization,agricultural modernization and greenization in Gansu Province

Expand
  • College of Geographic and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China

Received date: 2018-01-15

  Revised date: 2018-05-27

Fold

Abstract

This paper selected 87 counties,county-level cities and autonomous counties in Gansu Province,China as the research unit and measured these regions' level of industrialization,urbanization,informatization,agricultural modernization and greenization (abbreviation as "Five Modernizations"),and the coordination development degree of "Five Modernizations",as well as the spatio-temporal evolution pattern and influencing factors.Constructing the model of the "Five Modernizations" collaborative development,the weight of each index was calculated by entropy method.Using the spatial analysis method,Spatial Auto-correlation Analysis and Geographically Weighted Regression analysis (GWR),the spatial-temporal pattern,spatio-temporal evolution trend and influence factors of "Five Modernizations" collaborative development were analyzed.The results show that the coordination development level of "Five Modernizations" in Gansu has been increased gradually.The index of coordination development level of "Five Modernizations" was 0.510 2 in 2015 which suggested a constrained synergy type,meaning the coordination was mildly disordered,or on the verge of disorder or constrained.Considering social and economy factors,this paper selected 12 factors including GDP,total investment in fixed assets,fiscal expenditure,disposable income of urban residents,consumption level of urban residents,disposable income of rural residents,consumption level of rural residents,disposable income of urban and rural residents,consumption level of urban and rural residents,total retail sales of social consumer goods,road length,topography relief and precipitation to explore the influence factors on coordination development of "Five Modernizations".Combining with the spatial autocorrelation analysis method,the global Moran's I value of the coordination development of "Five Modernizations" index in Gansu Province was 0.496 1,which indicated a significant spatial correlation with the confidence level being more than 0.05.In addition using space exploration analysis tool to eliminate the factors whose variance inflation factor variables (VIF) were greater than 10,the remaining factors included total investment in fixed assets,difference in disposable income of urban and rural residents,difference in consumption of urban and rural residents,disposable income of rural residents,fiscal expenditure,precipitation and topographic relief.Input these factors to the GWR model,we had the following results AICc value is -118.63,the R2 value is 0.728 0 and Cond values is less than 30.According to the value of AICc, R2 and Cond,GWR model has good rationality in analyzing the influencing factors.By comparing coefficient of each variable,the influence degree of the seven variables were listed in a descending order as follows:per capita disposable income of rural residents > discretionary disposable income of urban and rural residents > total fixed asset investment > expenditure on finance > topographic relief > consumption difference between urban and rural areas > precipitation.Study of the coordination development level of "Five Modernizations" in Gansu Province can provide reference for the scientific development policy of the county level units in Gansu Province,and put forward some suggestions for the coordination development.

Key words： collaborative development of “Five Modernizations”; entropy method; geographically weighted regression analysis; spatio-temporal evolution trend

Cite this article

ZHENG Hai-song, SHI Pei-ji, KANG Jing . Spatio-temporal evolution pattern and influencing factors in synergetic development of industrialization,urbanization,informatization,agricultural modernization and greenization in Gansu Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2018 , 41(4) : 874 -884 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.04.25

References

[1] 徐维祥,舒季君,唐根年.中国工业化、信息化、城镇化和农业现代化协同发展的时空格局与动态演进[J].经济学动态,2015,(1):76-85.[XU Weixiang,SHU Jijun,TANG Gennian.Spatial and temporal patterns and dynamic evolution of China's industrialization, informatization, urbanization and agricultural modernization[J].Economic Perspectives,2015,(1):76-85.]
[2] 李裕瑞,王婧,刘彦随,等.中国"四化"协同发展的区域格局及其影响因素[J].地理学报,2014,69(2):199-212.[LI Yurui,WANG Jing,LIU Yansui,et al.Spatial pattern and influencing factors of the coordination development of industrialization,informatization,urbanizationand agricultural modernization in China:A prefecture level exploratory spatial data analysis[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(2):199-212.]
[3] 刘满凤,谢晗进.我国工业化、城镇化与环境经济集聚的时空演化[J].经济地理,2015,35(10):21-28.[LIU Manfeng,XIE Hanjin.The space-time evolution analysis of Chinese industrialization, urbanization and environmental-economic agglomeration[J].Economic Geography,2015,35(10):21-28.]
[4] 国家统计局统计科研所信息化统计评价研究组.信息化发展指数优化研究报告[J].管理世界,2011,(12):1-11.Research Group of Statistical Evaluation for Informatization, Institute of Statistical Science and Technology,National Bureau of Statistics.Reprot on informatization development index optimization[[J].Management World,2011,(12):1-11.]
[5] 冯之浚,刘燕华,金涌,等.坚持与完善中国特色绿色化道路[J].中国软科学,2015,(9):1-7.[FENG Zhijun,LIU Yanhua,JIN Yong,et al.Adhering to and perfecting the green road with Chinese characteristics[J].China Soft Science,2015,(9):1-7.]
[6] 陈佳贵,黄群慧,钟宏武.中国地区工业化进程的综合评价和特征分析[J].经济研究,2006,(6):4-15.[CHEN Jiagui,HUANG Qunhui,ZHONG Hongwu.The synthetic evaluation and analysis on regional industrialization[J].Economic Research Journal,2006,(6):4-15.]
[7] 陈明星,陆大道,张华.中国城市化水平的综合测度及其动力因子分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(4):387-398.[CHEN Mingxing,LU Dadao,ZHANG Hua.Comprehensive evaluation and the driving factors of China's urbanization[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2009,64(4):387-398.]
[8] 刘彦随,杨忍.中国县域城镇化的空间特征与形成机理[J].地理学报,2012,67(8):1011-1020.[LIU Yansui,YANG Ren.The spatial characteristics and formation mechanism of the county urbanization in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(8):1011-1020.]
[9] 宋周莺,刘卫东.中国信息化发展进程及其时空格局分析[J].地理科学,2013,33(3):257-265.[SONG Zhouying,LIU Weidong.Spatio-temporal analysis of regional and provincial informatization in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(3):257-265.]
[10] 龙冬平,李同昇,苗园园,等.中国农业现代化发展水平空间分异及类型[J].地理学报,2014,69(2):213-226.[LONG Dongping,LI Tongsheng,MIAO Yuanyuan,et al.The spatial distribution and types of the development level of Chinese agricultural modernization[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(2):213-226.]
[11] 刘凯,任建兰,王成新.中国绿色化的演变特征及其影响因素[J].城市问题,2016,(4):11-17.[LIU Kai,REN Jianlan,WANG Chengxin.Evolution characteristics and influencing factors of China's greening[J].Urban Problems,2016,(4):11-17.]
[12] 段禄峰,张沛.我国城镇化与工业化协同发展问题研究[J].城市发展研究,2009,16(7):12-17.[DUAN Lufeng,ZHANG Pei.Research on the coordinating development of China's urbanization and industrialization[J].Urban Development Studies,2009,16(7):12-17.]
[13] 王瑜炜,秦辉.中国信息化与新型工业化耦合格局及其变化机制分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(2):93-100.[WANG Yuwei,QIN Hui.Spatial pattern and change mechanism analysis on the coupling and coordinating degree of regional informatization and new industrialization in China[J].Economic Geography,2014,34(2):93-100.]
[14] 李为,伍世代.绿色化与城镇化动态耦合探析——以福建省为例[J].福建师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2016,(4):1-9.[LI Wei,WU Shidai.Research on dynamic coupling of greening and urbanization in Fujian Province[J].Journal of Fujian Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition),2016,(4):1-9.]
[15] 杨世箐.新型工业化与农业现代化互动发展测度指标体系的构建[J].统计与决策,2013,(22):67-70.[YANG Shijing.The construction of the index system of new industrialization and agricultural modernization[J].Statistics and Decision,2013,(22):67-70.]
[16] 丁志伟,张改素,王发曾.中原经济区"三化"协同的内在机理与定量分析[J].地理科学,2013, 3(4):402-409.[DING Zhiwei,ZHANG Gaisu,WANG Fazeng.The internal mechanism and quantitative analysis of coordination development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization of Zhongyuan Economic Region[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013, 3(4):402-409.]
[17] 姜会明,王振华.吉林省工业化、城镇化与农业现代化关系实证分析[J].地理科学,2012,32(5):591-595.[JIANG Huiming,WANG Zhenhua.Empirical analysis on the relationship among industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in Jilin Province[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012,32(5):591-595.]
[18] 夏春萍.工业化、城镇化与农业现代化的互动关系研究[J].统计与决策,2010,(10):125-127.[XIA Chunping.Research on the interactive relationship between industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization[J].Statistics and Decision,2010,(10):125-127.]
[19] 潘竟虎,胡艳兴,刘晓,等.中国地级及以上城市"四化"协同发展效率的时空分异测度[J].地理科学,2016,(4):512-520.[PAN Jinghu,HU Yanxing,LIU Xiao,et al.Spatial-temporal pattern of the coordinated development efficiency of the"Four Modernizations" of prefecture level cities or above in China[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,(4):512-520.]
[20] 周振,孔祥智.中国"四化"协同发展格局及其影响因素研究——基于农业现代化视角[J].中国软科学,2015,(10):9-26.[ZHOU Zhen,KONG Xiangzhi.Pattern and influencing factors of coordinated implementation of "Four Tasks" in China:Perspective of agricultural modernization[J].China Soft Science,2015,(10):9-26.]
[21] 徐维祥,舒季君,唐根年.中国工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化同步发展测度[J].经济地理,2014,34(9):1-6.[XU Weixiang,SHU Jijun,TANG Gennian.The measure on the synchronous development of industrialization,informatization,urbanization,agricultural modernization[J].Economic Geography,2014,34(9):1-6.]
[22] 胡艳兴,潘竟虎,陈蜒,等.基于ESDA和GWR的中国地级及以上城市四化协同发展时空分异格局[J].经济地理,2015,35(5):45-54.[HU Yanxing,PAN Jinghu,CHEN Yan,et al.Spatiotemporal pattern of industrialization,information,urbanization and agricultural modernization of prefecture level cities or above in China based on ESDA and GWR[J].Economic Geography,2015,35(5):45-54.]
[23] 丁志伟,张改素,王发曾,等.中国工业化、城镇化、农业现代化、信息化、绿色化"五化"协同定量评价的进展与反思[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(1):4-13.[DING Zhiwei,ZHANG Gaisu,WANG Fazeng,et al.Progress on quantitative evaluation of coordinated development of industrialization,urbanization,agricultural modernization,informationization,and greenization in China and reflections[J].Progress in Geography,2016,35(1):4-13.]
[24] 刘凯,任建兰,张存鹏.中国"五化"协同发展水平演变研究[J].经济问题探索,2016,(4):27-34.[LIU Kai,REN Jianlan,ZHANG Cunpeng.Evolution of Chinese "Five Modernizations" coordinated development level[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2016,(4):27-34.]
[25] 陈耀,周洪霞.中国工业化与城镇化协同性测度分析[J].经济纵横,2014,(6):43-49.[CHEN Yao,ZHOU Hongxia.Analysis on the measurement of the industrialization and urbanization in China[J].Economic Review,2014,(6):43-49.]
[26] 钱丽,陈忠卫,肖仁桥.中国区域工业化、城镇化与农业现代化耦合协同度及其影响因素研究[J].经济问题探索,2012,(11):10-17.[QIAN Li,CHEN Zhongwei,XIAO Renqiao.Study on the coupling coordination degree and influencing factors of regional industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization in China[J].Inquiry into Economic Issues,2012,(11):10-17.]
[27] 廖重斌.环境与经济协同发展的定量评判及其分类体系——以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J].热带地理,1999,19(2):171-177.[LIAO Chongbin.Quantitative judgment and classification system for coordination development of environment and economy:A case study of the city group in the Pearl River Delta[J].Tropical Geography,1999,19(2):171-177.]
[28] 王建伟,毛韬,付鑫.基于ESDA的西北地区公路网分布空间差异分析[J]. 干旱区地理,2013,36(2):329-336.[WANG Jianjun,MAO Tao,FU Xin.Spatial disparities of the distribution of highway network in northwest China based on exploratory spatial data analysis[J].Arid Land Geography,2013,36(2):329-336.]
[29] 王劲峰.空间数据分析教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2010:132-140.[WANG Jinfeng.Spatial data analysis[M].Beijing:Science Press,2010:132-140.]
Options
Outlines

/

〈 〉