Impact and pathways of population growth-decline differentiation on urban economic resilience in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration
Received date: 2024-11-09
Revised date: 2024-12-19
Online published: 2025-06-18
As China accelerates the construction of new development models and advances high-quality development, human capital has become a key driver of intercity competitiveness. In recent years, the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration has experienced significant population decline and insufficient human capital competitiveness, which have directly weakened its urban economic resilience. This study examines six representative cities within the Lanzhou-Xining (Lanxi) urban agglomeration, employing a linear mixed-effects model to analyze the effects and mechanisms of differentiated population growth and decline on urban economic resilience in 2010, 2015, and 2020. The findings reveal the following characteristics of urban economic resilience in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration. (1) Between 2010 and 2020, urban economic resilience generally increased across the Lanxi region, forming a “core-edge” structure, with Lanzhou City and Xining City at the core and other cities at the periphery. (2) Variations in population growth significantly affected urban economic resilience, with population inflows exerting positive externalities on regional resilience. (3) The rationalization of the industrial structure did not moderate the impact of population change on urban economic resilience. In cities experiencing population loss, initial declines facilitated some degree of industrial restructuring; however, this mode of adjustment was not sustainable over time. (4) Population change also influenced the level of local informatization, which in turn affected urban economic resilience. Population growth supported the development of urban informatization, thereby strengthening urban economic resilience. Based on these findings, it is recommended to promote coordinated regional development, enhance human capital accumulation, accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading, and advance population policy in tandem with informatization initiatives to improve the economic resilience of major cities in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration.
WANG Yifei , KONG Dezhen , LUO Yuxuan , MAO Jinhuang , WANG Meimei . Impact and pathways of population growth-decline differentiation on urban economic resilience in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025 , 48(6) : 1020 -1030 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.692
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