Assessment and prediction of water resource vulnerability in Kekeya area under the future multi-scenario model
Received date: 2024-03-16
Revised date: 2024-07-30
Online published: 2025-04-18
With the rapid economic development and the population growth, the fragility of water resources has become a key constraint on the sustainable development of the Kekeya Project Area in Xinjiang, China. Based on natural, anthropogenic and socio-economic factors, an evaluation index system of water resource fragility was constructed incorporating four developmental scenarios: status-quo development, economy orientation, resource conservation, and green coordination. The system dynamics model was employed to assess and predict water resource fragility in the region. Results indicate that from 2010 to 2020, the water fragility of the area decreased with increased water conservation efforts, but overall fragility remained moderate. Of the four development scenarios, simulation results for water resources’ healthy development showed, first, an upward trend for water resources’ future fragility, and, second, that resource conservation scenario will best alleviate imbalance between water supply and demand. Therefore, adjusting economic structure and innovating water-saving technologies can have a positive effect on alleviating water resource fragility. Future development should prioritize not only the economic development of the Kekeya Project Zone, but also increase the intensity of ecological construction to achieve high-quality, sustainable water resource management in the in the region.
YANG Xuemei , WANG Ranghui , LIU Chunwei . Assessment and prediction of water resource vulnerability in Kekeya area under the future multi-scenario model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025 , 48(4) : 640 -648 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.170
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