未来多情景下柯柯牙工程区水资源脆弱性评价及预测

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Assessment and prediction of water resource vulnerability in Kekeya area under the future multi-scenario model

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doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.170

Abstract:

With the rapid economic development and the population growth, the fragility of water resources has become a key constraint on the sustainable development of the Kekeya Project Area in Xinjiang, China. Based on natural, anthropogenic and socio-economic factors, an evaluation index system of water resource fragility was constructed incorporating four developmental scenarios: status-quo development, economy orientation, resource conservation, and green coordination. The system dynamics model was employed to assess and predict water resource fragility in the region. Results indicate that from 2010 to 2020, the water fragility of the area decreased with increased water conservation efforts, but overall fragility remained moderate. Of the four development scenarios, simulation results for water resources’ healthy development showed, first, an upward trend for water resources’ future fragility, and, second, that resource conservation scenario will best alleviate imbalance between water supply and demand. Therefore, adjusting economic structure and innovating water-saving technologies can have a positive effect on alleviating water resource fragility. Future development should prioritize not only the economic development of the Kekeya Project Zone, but also increase the intensity of ecological construction to achieve high-quality, sustainable water resource management in the in the region.

Key words: water vulnerability, system dynamics model, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Kekeya area

YANG Xuemei, WANG Ranghui, LIU Chunwei. Assessment and prediction of water resource vulnerability in Kekeya area under the future multi-scenario model[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(4): 640-648.

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目标层	准则层	指标层	指标属性	数据来源/计算方式
柯柯牙工程区水资源脆弱性	自然因素	降水量（X₁）	-	气象资料数据
		森林覆盖率（X₂）	-	森林面积/区域总面积×100%
		蒸发量（X₃）	+	统计年鉴数据
		年径流（X₄）	+	统计年鉴数据
	人为因素	人口密度（X₅）	+	总人口/区域面积
		水资源开发利用率（X₆）	+	总用水量/水资源总量
		农业生产用水量（X₇）	+	农业用水/总用水量
		人均生活用水量（X₈）	-	生活用水总量/总人口
	经济社会因素	人均GDP（X₉）	-	地区生产总值/总人口
		单位工业产值用水量（X₁₀）	-	工业用水总量/工业增加值
		工业用水比例（X₁₁）	+	工业用水量/总用水量
		城镇化率（X₁₂）	+	城镇人口/总人口

指标	熵值法	CRITIC法	总权重	指标	熵值法	CRITIC法	总权重
X₁	0.066	0.072	0.069	X₇	0.079	0.059	0.069
X₂	0.090	0.117	0.103	X₈	0.039	0.066	0.052
X₃	0.092	0.101	0.096	X₉	0.072	0.121	0.097
X₄	0.086	0.084	0.085	X₁₀	0.087	0.086	0.087
X₅	0.095	0.062	0.079	X₁₁	0.122	0.083	0.102
X₆	0.065	0.066	0.066	X₁₂	0.108	0.083	0.095

发展情景	情景描述
现状发展型	该情景涉及的各方面增长率以及各类用水定额均保持恒定不变，维持历史变化趋势
经济导向型	该情景重点突出经济发展的重要性，强调相关经济指标的重要性，例如人口变化率、城镇化率增长率等
资源节约型	该情景下大力推行节约用水和废水处理循环利用，实现地区水资源的高质量可持续发展
绿色协调型	该情景是结合现状发展型以及节约资源型，在保持社会经济的稳定发展下，加大生态建设力度

参数	发展情景
参数	现状发展型	经济导向型	资源节约型	绿色协调型
第一产业增长率	6.50	10.00	3.00	8.00
第二产业增长率	9.20	14.00	4.80	11.00
第三产业增长率	8.80	12.00	5.00	10.00
人口增长率	1.00	2.00	0.60	1.40
城镇化率增长率	0.29	0.50	0.18	0.38
工业用水增长率	0.80	1.00	0.60	0.90

Just accepted

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