Collect ｜ Homepage Advertisement ｜ Contact us ｜ Message
Adv. search

Arid Land Geography >

2025 , Vol. 48 >Issue 2: 308 - 322

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.320

Ecology and Environment

Analysis and prediction of landscape ecological risk in Ebinur Lake Basin based on PLUS model

  • ZHANG Zihan ,
  • WANG Jinjie ,
  • DING Jianli ,
  • ZHANG Jinming ,
  • GE Xiangyu
Expand
  • 1. College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, Xinjiang, China
    3. Xinjiang Institute of Technology, Aksu 843100, Xinjiang, China

Received date: 2024-05-26

  Revised date: 2024-06-11

  Online published: 2025-02-25

Fold

Abstract

The evaluation of landscape ecological risk is an emerging interdisciplinary field combining geography and ecology, with significant importance for regional environmental assessment and land resource planning. This study focuses on the Ebinur Lake Basin, Xinjiang, China using remote sensing data on land use from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 to quantitatively analyze dynamic land use changes over three decades. The landscape ecological risk index and geostatistical methods were applied to assess the degree and spatiotemporal variation of ecological risks in the basin. Additionally, the PLUS model was used to simulate and predict the spatial distribution of land use and ecological risks under multiple 2030 scenarios. The results revealed the following: (1) Grassland and bare land dominate the basin, covering over 70% of the area, while shrubland and wetlands occupy smaller areas. Between 1990 and 2020, farmland and impervious surfaces expanded significantly, while grassland area shrank, representing the main land use changes. (2) From 1990 to 2020, the global landscape ecological risk, indicated by the Moran index (Moran’s I), showed a significant positive trend, with risks increasing and exhibiting a clustering effect, following a spatial distribution pattern of “low at the edges, high in the center”. (3) By 2030, land use changes in the basin are expected to stabilize, with grassland and bare land remaining dominant. (4) The spatial distribution of ecological risks in 2030 under different scenarios aligns with historical trends. Among these scenarios, the ecological protection scenario is most effective at mitigating risks while balancing socioeconomic development, making it ideal for achieving sustainable development.

Key words： land use; landscape ecological risk; PLUS forecast; multi-scenario simulation; Ebinur Lake Basin

Cite this article

ZHANG Zihan , WANG Jinjie , DING Jianli , ZHANG Jinming , GE Xiangyu . Analysis and prediction of landscape ecological risk in Ebinur Lake Basin based on PLUS model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2025 , 48(2) : 308 -322 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.320

References

[1] 付在毅, 许学工. 区域生态风险评价[J]. 地球科学进展, 2001, 16(2): 267-271.
  [Fu Zaiyi, Xu Xuegong. Regional ecological risk assessment[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2001, 16(2): 267-271. ]
[2] Tian P, Li J L, Gong H B, et al. Research on land use changes and ecological risk assessment in Yongjiang River Basin in Zhejiang Province, China[J]. Sustainability, 2019, 1(10): 2817, doi: 10.3390/su11102817.
[3] 莫贵芬, 冯建中, 王中美, 等. 中亚阿姆河跨境流域景观生态风险时空演变特征分析[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2022, 40(1): 123-131.
  [Mo Guifen, Feng Jianzhong, Wang Zhongmei, et al. Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of landscape ecological risk in the transboundary basin of Amu Darya River, Central Asia[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2022, 40(1): 123-131. ]
[4] Huang H, Wang P, Xie H. Ecological risk assessment of land use change in the Poyang Lake eco-economic zone, China[J]. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2013, 10(1): 328-346.
[5] 汪翡翠, 汪东川, 张利辉, 等. 京津冀城市群土地利用生态风险的时空变化分析[J]. 生态学报, 2018, 38(12): 4307-4316.
  [Wang Feicui, Wang Dongchuan, Zhang Lihui, et al. Spatiotemporal analysis of the dynamic changes in land use ecological risks in the urban agglomeration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2018, 38(12): 4307-4316. ]
[6] 井云清, 张飞, 陈丽华, 等. 艾比湖湿地土地利用/覆被-景观格局和气候变化的生态环境效应研究[J]. 环境科学学报, 2017, 37(9): 3590-3601.
  [Jing Yunqing, Zhang Fei, Chen Lihua, et al. Investigation on eco-environmental effects of land use/cover-landscape pattern and climate change in Ebinur Lake Wetland Nature Reserve[J]. Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae, 2017, 37(9): 3590-3601. ]
[7] Gao L N, Tao F, Liu R R, et al. Multi-scenario simulation and ecological risk analysis of land use based on the PLUS model: A case study of Nanjing[J]. Sustainable Cities and Society, 2022, 85: 104055, doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2022.104055.
[8] 彭建, 党威雄, 刘焱序, 等. 景观生态风险评价研究进展与展望[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(4): 664-677.
  [Peng Jian, Dang Weixiong, Liu Yanxu, et al. Review on landscape ecological risk assessment[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(4): 664-677. ]
[9] 刘琪. 基于土地利用变化的延河流域景观生态风险评价[D]. 西安: 西北大学, 2016.
  [Liu Qi. Landscape ecological risk assessment of Yanhe watershed based on land use change[D]. Xi’an: Northwest University, 2016. ]
[10] 曹祺文, 张曦文, 马洪坤, 等. 景观生态风险研究进展及基于生态系统服务的评价框架: ESRISK[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(5): 843-855.
  [Cao Qiwen, Zhang Xiwen, Ma Hongkun, et al. Review of landscape ecological risk and an assessment framework based on ecological services ESRISK[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(5): 843-855. ]
[11] 康紫薇, 张正勇, 位宏, 等. 基于土地利用变化的玛纳斯河流域景观生态风险评价[J]. 生态学报, 2020, 40(18): 6472-6485.
  [Kang Ziwei, Zhang Zhengyong, Wei Hong, et al. Landscape ecological risk assessment in Manas River Basin based on land use change[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2020, 40(18): 6472-6485. ]
[12] 吕乐婷, 张杰, 孙才志, 等. 基于土地利用变化的细河流域景观生态风险评估[J]. 生态学报, 2018, 38(16): 5952-5960.
  [Lü Leting, Zhang Jie, Sun Caizhi, et al. Landscape ecological risk assessment of Xi River Basin based on land-use change[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2018, 38(16): 5952-5960. ]
[13] 郝军, 田雅楠, 戈锋, 等. 嫩江中游内蒙古段土地利用与景观生态风险响应关系研究[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(11): 6132-6140.
  [Hao Jun, Tian Ya’nan, Ge Feng, et al. Correlational relationship between land use and landscape ecological risks in Inner Mongolia section of middle Nenjiang[J]. China Environmental Science, 2023, 43(11): 6132-6140. ]
[14] 陈全通, 殷浩然, 李艳红, 等. 秦巴山地景观生态风险的时空分异[J]. 水土保持通报, 2022, 42(3): 239-246.
  [Chen Quantong, Yin Haoran, Li Yanhong, et al Spatial and temporal differentiation of landscape ecological risk in Qinling-Daba Mountains[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2022, 42(3): 239-246. ]
[15] Cui B H, Zhang Y L, Wang Z F, et al. Ecological risk assessment of transboundary region based on land-cover change: A case study of Gandaki River Basin, Himalayas[J]. Land, 2022, 11(5): 638, doi: 10.3390/land11050638.
[16] 高宾, 李小玉, 李志刚, 等. 基于景观格局的锦州湾沿海经济开发区生态风险分析[J]. 生态学报, 2011, 31(12): 3441-3450.
  [Gao bin, Li Xiaoyu, Li Zhigang, et al. Assessment of ecological risk of coastal economic developing zone in Jinzhou Bay based on landscape pattern[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2011, 31(12): 3441-3450. ]
[17] Hamad R, Balzter H, Kolo K. Predicting land use/land cover changes using a CA-Markov model under two different scenarios[J]. Sustainability, 2018, 10(10): 3421, doi: 10.3390/su10103421.
[18] Peng J, Hu X X, Wang X Y, et al. Simulating the impact of Grain-for-Green Programme on ecosystem services trade-offs in northwestern Yunnan, China[J]. Ecosystem Services, 2019, 39: 100998, doi: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.100998.
[19] 王保盛, 廖江福, 祝薇, 等. 基于历史情景的FLUS模型邻域权重设置——以闽三角城市群2030年土地利用模拟为例[J]. 生态学报, 2019, 39(12): 4284-4298.
  [Wang Baosheng, Liao Jiangfu, Zhu Wei, et al. The weight of neighborhood setting of the FLUS model based on a historical scenario: A case study of land use simulation of urban agglomeration of the Golden Triangle of southern Fujian in 2030[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2019, 39(12): 4284-4298. ]
[20] 周满意, 王承武. 基于PLUS模型的乌鲁木齐市“三生”空间多情景模拟[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(7): 4021-4030.
  [Zhou Manyi, Wang Chengwu. Multi-scenario simulation of “production-livelihood-ecological” space in Urumqi based on PLUS[J]. China Environmental Science, 2024, 44(7): 4021-4030. ]
[21] Han J Z, Hu Z Q, Wang P J, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution and optimization analysis of ecosystem service value: A case study of coal resource-based city group in Shandong, China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022, 363: 132602, doi: 10.1016/J.JCLEPRO.2022.132602.
[22] 杨朔, 苏昊, 赵国平. 基于PLUS模型的城市生态系统服务价值多情景模拟——以汉中市为例[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2022, 36(10): 86-95.
  [Yang Shuo, Su Hao, Zhao Guoping. Multi-scenario simulation of urban ecosystem service value based on PLUS model: A case study of Hanzhong City[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2022, 36(10): 86-95. ]
[23] 张艳, 李骏南, 潘博华. 基于PLUS模型的黄河流域生态系统服务评价及多情景预测——以陕西段为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(11): 1935-1946.
  [Zhang Yan, Li Junnan, Pan Bohua. Evaluation and multi-scenario prediction of ecosystem services in the Yellow River Basin based on PLUS model: A case of Shaanxi section[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(11): 1935-1946. ]
[24] 雷小牛, 李宏健, 刘艳红, 等. 新疆艾比湖流域生态环境保护修复治理的基本思路及对策[J]. 水利发展研究, 2023, 23(5): 38-48.
  [Lei Xiaoniu, Li Hongjian, Liu Yanhong, et al. Basic ideas and measures of ecological environment protection, restoration and governance in Ebinur Lake Basin in Xinjiang[J]. Water Resources Development Research, 2023, 23(5): 38-48. ]
[25] 刘景明, 丁建丽, 包青岭, 等. 基于同位素揭示艾比湖流域地下水特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(2): 201-210.
  [Liu Jingming, Ding Jianli, Bao Qingling, et al. Characteristics of groundwater in Ebinur Lake Basin using isotopes method[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(2): 201-210. ]
[26] 丁建丽, 葛翔宇, 王敬哲. 中国艾比湖湿地识别及其时空动态变化[J]. 自然资源学报, 2021, 36(8): 1949-1963.
  [Ding Jianli, Ge Xiangyu, Wang Jingzhe. Ebinur Lake wetland identification and its spatio-temporal dynamic changes[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2021, 36(8): 1949-1963. ]
[27] Yang J, Huang X. The 30 m annual land cover dataset and its dynamics in China from 1990 to 2019[J]. Earth System Science Data, 2021, 13(8): 3907-3925.
[28] 邓晓辉, 王琳, 欧彩虹, 等. 基于PLUS模型的长株潭都市圈景观生态风险动态分析[J]. 地理与地理信息科学, 2024, 40(1): 47-54, 98.
  [Deng Xiaohui, Wang Lin, Ou Caihong, et al. Dynamic analysis of landscape ecological risk in Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan Metropolitan Area based on PLUS model[J]. Geography and Geo-information Science, 2024, 40(1): 47-54, 98. ]
[29] 张廷, 胡玉柱, 胡海辉, 等. 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的哈尔滨市土地利用及生境质量预测[J]. 环境科学, 2024, 45(8): 4709-4721.
  [Zhang Ting, Hu Yuzhu, Hu Haihui, et al. Prediction of land use and habitat quality in Harbin City based on the PLUS-InVEST model[J]. Environmental Science, 2024, 45(8): 4709-4721. ]
[30] 牛统莉, 熊立华, 陈杰, 等. 基于PLUS模型的长江流域土地利用变化模拟与多情景预测[J]. 武汉大学学报(工学版), 2024, 57(2): 129-141, 151.
  [Niu Tongli, Xiong Lihua, Chen Jie, et al. Land use simulation and multi-scenario prediction of the Yangtze River Basin based on PLUS model[J]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2024, 57(2): 129-141, 151. ]
[31] 李琛, 高彬嫔, 吴映梅, 等. 基于PLUS模型的山区城镇景观生态风险动态模拟[J]. 浙江农林大学学报, 2022, 39(1): 84-94.
  [Li Chen, Gao Binpin, Wu Yingmei, et al. Dynamic simulation of landscape ecological risk in mountain towns based on PLUS model[J]. Journal of Zhejiang A & F University, 2022, 39(1): 84-94. ]
[32] 王敏, 胡守庚, 张绪冰, 等. 干旱区绿洲城镇景观生态风险时空变化分析——以张掖绿洲乡镇为例[J]. 生态学报, 2022, 42(14): 5812-5824.
  [Wang Min, Hu Shougeng, Zhang Xubing, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution of landscape ecological risk in oasis cities and towns of arid area: A case study of Zhangye oasis township[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022, 42(14): 5812-5824. ]
[33] 尉芳, 刘京, 夏利恒, 等. 基于LUCC的陕西渭北旱塬区景观生态风险评价[J]. 中国环境科学, 2022, 42(4): 1963-1974.
  [Wei Fang, Liu Jing, Xia Liheng, et al. Landscape ecological risk assessment in Weibei dryland region of Shaanxi Province based on LUCC[J]. China Environmental Science, 2022, 42(4): 1963-1974. ]
[34] 张月, 张飞, 周梅, 等. 干旱区内陆艾比湖区域景观生态风险评价及时空分异[J]. 应用生态学报, 2016, 27(1): 233-242.
  [Zhang Yue, Zhang Fei, Zhou Mei, et al. Landscape ecological risk assessment and its spatio-temporal variations in Ebinur Lake region of inland arid area[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2016, 27(1): 233-242. ]
[35] 于航, 刘学录, 赵天明, 等. 基于景观格局的祁连山国家公园景观生态风险评价[J]. 生态科学, 2022, 41(2): 99-107.
  [Yu Hang, Liu Xuelu, Zhao Tianming, et al. Landscape ecological risk assessment of Qilian Mountain National Park based on landscape pattern[J]. Ecological Science, 2022, 41(2): 99-107. ]
[36] Wang S Y, Liu J S, Ma T B. Dynamics and changes in spatial patterns of land use in Yellow River Basin, China[J]. Land Use Policy, 2009, 27(2): 313-323.
[37] 张松林, 张昆. 全局空间自相关Moran指数和G系数对比研究[J]. 中山大学学报(自然科学版), 2007, 46(4): 93-97.
  [Zhang Songlin, Zhang Kun. Comparison between General Moran’s index and Getis-Ord General G of spatial autocorrelation[J]. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni, 2007, 46(4): 93-97. ]
[38] Zhang M X, Bao Y B, Xü J, et al. Ecological security evaluation and ecological regulation approach of East-Liao River Basin based on ecological function area[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2021, 132: 108255, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108255.
[39] 韩楚翘, 郑江华, 王哲, 等. 基于PLUS-InVEST模型吐哈盆地陆地生态系统碳储量时空变化及多情景模拟[J]. 干旱区地理, 2024, 47(2): 260-269.
  [Han Chuqiao, Zheng Jianghua, Wang Zhe, et al. Spatiotemporal variation and multiscenario simulation of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems in the Turpan-Hami Basin based on PLUS-InVEST model[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(2): 260-269. ]
[40] 李俊, 杨德宏, 吴锋振, 等. 基于PLUS与InVEST模型的昆明市土地利用变化动态模拟与碳储量评估[J]. 水土保持通报, 2023, 43(1): 378-387.
  [Li Jun, Yang Dehong, Wu Zhenfeng, et al. Dynamic simulation of land use changes and assessment of carbon storage in Kunming City based on PLUS and InVEST models[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2023, 43(1): 378-387. ]
[41] 杨伶, 王金龙, 周文强. 基于多情景模拟的洞庭湖流域LUCC与生境质量耦合演变分析[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(2): 863-873.
  [Yang Ling, Wang Jinlong, Zhou Wenqiang. Coupling evolution analysis of LUCC and habitat quality in Dongting Lake Basin based on multi-scenario simulation[J]. China Environmental Science, 2023, 43(2): 863-873. ]
[42] 李晓航, 张飞, 周梅, 等. LUCC视角下的艾比湖流域典型区域景观格局时空变化研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2016, 30(7): 53-58.
  [Li Xiaohang, Zhang Fei, Zhou Mei, et al. The spatial-temporal dynamic changes of landscape patterns in typical region of Ebinur Lake based on LUCC[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2016, 30(7): 53-58. ]
Options
Outlines

/

〈 〉