Characteristic and potential prediction of thunderstorm in Gansu Province
Received date: 2024-02-22
Revised date: 2024-06-27
Online published: 2025-01-02
Based on hourly extreme wind speed and lightning localization data from 2115 observation stations in Gansu Province, China for the period from 2017 to 2021, combined with ECMWF ensemble forecasting data, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics as well as the convective parameter characteristics of thunderstorm were analyzed. The potential prediction of thunderstorm was conducted using a multi-index nested method. The results indicate that thunderstorm primarily occur from April to September, with the highest frequency from May to July, accounting for 65.3% of the total occurrences. The hourly occurrence of thunderstorm is concentrated between 15:00 and 21:00, peaking at 17:00. The spatial distribution of thunderstorm is strongly influenced by the terrain in Gansu Province. Spatially, the frequency of thunderstorm decreases from west to east. Thunderstorm are more frequent in plateaus than in valleys, with the highest occurrences observed in the Gannan Plateau and the lowest in southeastern Gansu Province. Thunderstorm in Gansu Province predominantly fall into categories 8 and 9, while those above category 10 mainly occur in the Hexi Region and Gannan Plateau. Potential forecast probability products for thunderstorm in Gansu Province were obtained based on convective parameters and indicator threshold. Test results reveal a strong concurrence between the forecasted and actual occurrence areas, providing a significant reference value to improve the thunderstorm forecast in Gansu Province.
Key words: thunderstorm; characteristic; potential prediction; Gansu Province
TAN Dan , NIE Canqi , HUANG Wubin , LI Wenyao , XIE Lijun . Characteristic and potential prediction of thunderstorm in Gansu Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2024 , 47(12) : 2083 -2092 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.110
[1] | 俞小鼎, 王秀明, 李万莉, 等. 雷暴与强对流临近预报[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2020: 298-299, 295. |
[Yu Xiaoding, Wang Xiuming, Li Wanli, et al. Near forecast of thunderstorm and severe convection[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2020: 298-299, 295.] | |
[2] | 孙继松, 戴建华, 何立富, 等. 强对流天气预报的基本原理与技术方法—中国强对流天气预报手册[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2014: 13-18. |
[Sun Jisong, Dai Jianhua, He Lifu, et al. Basic principles and technical methods of strong convective weather forecast: China strong convective weather forecast manual[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2014: 13-18.] | |
[3] | 肉孜·阿基, 于碧馨, 李如琦. 2019年8月阿克苏罕见翻山大风精细特征及成因分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023, 46(2): 222-232. |
[Aji Rouzi, Yu Bixin, Li Ruqi. Fine characteristics and cause analysis of rare gale over Tianshan Mountains over Aksu Prefecture in August, 2019[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(2): 222-232.] | |
[4] | 高婧, 井立军, 李新东, 等. 新疆塔城地区雷暴时空分布及变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2010, 33(1): 37-44. |
[Gao Jing, Jing Lijun, Li Xindong, et al. Temporal and spatial distribution of thunderstorm and its change features in Tacheng Prefecture[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2010, 33(1): 37-44.] | |
[5] | 郑永光, 田付友, 孟智勇, 等. “东方之星”客轮翻沉事件周边区域风灾现场调查与多尺度特征分析[J]. 气象, 2016, 42(1): 1-13. |
[Zheng Yongguang, Tian Fuyou, Meng Zhiyong, et al. Survey and multi-scale characteristics of wind damage caused by convective storms in the surrounding area of the capsizing accident of cruise ship “Dongfangzhixing”[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2016, 42(1): 1-13.] | |
[6] | 侯淑梅, 李昱薇, 张鹏, 等. “4·29”山东近海10级以上雷暴大风的成因分析[J]. 气象, 2022, 48(10): 1242-1256. |
[Hou Shumei, Li Yuwei, Zhang Peng, et al. Cause of a thunderstorm gale event over grade 10 along the Shandong coast on 29 April 2021[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2022, 48(10): 1242-1256.] | |
[7] | 陈晓欣, 俞小鼎, 王秀明. 中国大范围雷暴大风事件(Derechos)研究: 时空分布、环境背景和对流系统形态特征[J]. 气象学报, 2022, 80(1): 67-81. |
[Chen Xiaoxin, Yu Xiaoding, Wang Xiuming. A study of large-scale thunderstorm gale events (Derechos) in China: Spatiotemporal distribution, environmental background and convective system morphology[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2022, 80(1): 67-81.] | |
[8] | 方翀, 王西贵, 盛杰, 等. 华北地区雷暴大风的时空分布及物理量统计特征分析[J]. 高原气象, 2017, 36(5): 1368-1385. |
[Fang Chong, Wang Xigui, Sheng Jie, et al. Temporal and spatial distribution of north China thunder-gust winds and the statistical analysis of physical characteristics[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2017, 36(5): 1368-1385.] | |
[9] | 覃卫坚, 寿绍文, 王咏青, 等. 广西雷暴分布特征及灾害成因分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2009, 18(2): 131-138. |
[Qin Weijian, Shou Shaowen, Wang Yongqing, et al. Analysis of distribution characteristics and damage causes of thunderstorm in Guangxi[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2009, 18(2): 131-138.] | |
[10] | 刘兆旭, 刘晶, 范子昂. 2005—2020年新疆雷电灾害特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(5): 1402-1414. |
[Liu Zhaoxu, Liu Jing, Fan Zi’ang. Characteristics of lightnings disasters in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2020[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(5): 1402-1414.] | |
[11] | 许霖, 姚蓉, 王晓雷, 等. 湖南省雷暴大风的时空分布和变化特征[J]. 高原气象, 2017, 36(4): 993-1000. |
[Xu Lin, Yao Rong, Wang Xiaolei, et al. Study of temporal-spatial distribution and variation characteristics of thunderstorm gales in Hunan[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2017, 36(4): 993-1000.] | |
[12] | 柴东红, 杨晓亮, 吴紫煜, 等. 京津冀地区雷暴大风天气的统计分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2017, 36(3): 193-199. |
[Chai Donghong, Yang Xiaoliang, Wu Ziyu, et al. The statistical analysis of thunderstorm gales over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2017, 36(3): 193-199.] | |
[13] | 李力, 万雪丽, 齐大鹏, 等. 贵州省雷暴大风时空分布及对流参数特征分析[J]. 中低纬山地气象, 2020, 44(2): 1-8. |
[Li Li, Wan Xueli, Qi Dapeng, et al. Temporal and spatial distribution of Guizhou thunderstorm gales and the characteristic analysis of convective parameters[J]. Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology, 2020, 44(2): 1-8.] | |
[14] | 井宇, 陈闯, 赵强, 等. 陕西雷暴大风时空分布和气象条件分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2024, 42(4): 576-587. |
[Jing Yu, Chen Chuang, Zhao Qiang, et al. Spatial-temporal distribution and meteorological conditions of thunderstorm gales in Shaanxi[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2024, 42(4): 576-587.] | |
[15] | 廖晓农, 于波, 卢丽华. 北京雷暴大风气候特征及短时临近预报方法[J]. 气象, 2009, 35(9): 18-29. |
[Liao Xiaonong, Yu Bo, Lu Lihua. Climatology and nowcasting methods for thunderstorm gale in Beijing[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2009, 35(9): 18-29.] | |
[16] | 柯元惠, 马明明, 郑艳, 等. 海南岛雷暴大风天气形势和环境参数特征分析[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2022, 41(1): 86-93. |
[Ke Yuanhui, Ma Mingming, Zheng Yan, et al. Analysis of synoptic situation and environmental parameters of thunderstorm gales in Hainan[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2022, 41(1): 86-93.] | |
[17] | 韦惠红, 许冠宇, 刘希文, 等. 湖北省不同类型雷暴大风的时空分布及环境参数特征[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2022, 41(1): 66-75. |
[Wei Huihong, Xu Guanyu, Liu Xiwen, et al. Spatial-temporal distribution and environmental parameter characteristics for different types of thunderstorm gales in Hubei Province[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2022, 41(1): 66-75.] | |
[18] | 严仕尧, 李昀英, 齐琳琳, 等. 华北产生雷暴大风的动力热力综合指标分析及应用[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2013, 32(1): 17-23. |
[Yan Shiyao, Li Yunying, Qi Linlin, et al. Analysis and application of thermo-dynamical and dynamical indexes associated with thunderstorm gale in north China[J]. Torrential Rain and Disasters, 2013, 32(1): 17-23.] | |
[19] | 王军德, 苏振娟, 张丽娜, 等. 甘肃省极端降水指数时空变化特征[J]. 水土保持研究, 2022, 29(4): 270-276, 291. |
[Wang Junde, Su Zhenjuan, Zhang Lina, et al. Characteristics of temporal and spatial variation of extreme precipitation index in Gansu Province[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2022, 29(4): 270-276, 291.] | |
[20] | 谭丹, 黄玉霞, 沙宏娥. 甘肃省强对流天气特征分析[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2022, 31(2): 222-232. |
[Tan Dan, Huang Yuxia, Sha Hong’e. Characteristic analysis of severe convective weather in Gansu Province[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2022, 31(2): 222-232.] | |
[21] | 鲍文中, 张强, 陶健红, 等. 甘肃气候[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2018: 1-2, 122-123, 215-216. |
[Bao Wenzhong, Zhang Qiang, Tao Jianhong, et al. Gansu climate[M]. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2018: 1-2, 122-123, 215-216.] | |
[22] | 张宏芳, 巨晓璇, 卢珊, 等. 精细化网格的降水预报解析方法对比[J]. 气象科技进展, 2019, 9(3): 7-14. |
[Zhang Hongfang, Ju Xiaoxuan, Lu Shan, et al. Comparison of parsing methods for fine grid precipitation forecasting[J]. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2019, 9(3): 7-14.] | |
[23] | 费海燕, 王秀明, 周小刚, 等. 中国强雷暴大风的气候特征和环境参数分析[J]. 气象, 2016, 42(12): 1513-1521. |
[Fei Haiyan, Wang Xiuming, Zhou Xiaogang, et al. Climatic characteristics and environmental parameters of severe thunderstorm gales in China[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2016, 42(12): 1513-1521.] | |
[24] | 陈思容, 朱伟军, 周兵. 中国雷暴气候分布特征及变化趋势[J]. 大气科学学报, 2009, 32(5): 703-710. |
[Chen Sirong, Zhu Weijun, Zhou Bing. Climate characteristic and variation tendency of thunderstorm in China[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 2009, 32(5): 703-710.] | |
[25] | 王宝鉴, 刘维成, 黄玉霞, 等. 1961—2011年甘肃雷暴气候分布特征及变化趋势[J]. 中国沙漠, 2015, 35(5): 1346-1352. |
[Wang Baojian, Liu Weicheng, Huang Yuxia, et al. Climate distribution characteristics and trends of thunderstorm during 1961—2011 in Gansu, China[J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2015, 35(5): 1346-1352.] | |
[26] | 尤伟, 臧增亮, 潘晓滨, 等. 夏季青藏高原雷暴天气及其天气学特征的统计分析[J]. 高原气象, 2012, 31(6): 1523-1529. |
[You Wei, Zang Zengliang, Pan Xiaobin, et al. Statistical analyses on characteristic and environmental aspect of summer thunderstorm over the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Plateau Meteorology, 2012, 31(6): 1523-1529.] | |
[27] | 央美, 旦增格列, 达瓦泽仁, 等. 那曲地区雷暴天气时空变化特征及影响因素[J]. 应用气象学报, 2014, 25(6): 751-760. |
[Yang Mei, Danzeng Gelie, Dawa Zeren, et al. The trend and distribution of thunderstorm activity and influencing factors in Nagqu Prefecture[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2014, 25(6): 751-760.] | |
[28] | 雷蕾, 孙继松, 魏东. 利用探空资料判别北京地区夏季强对流的天气类别[J]. 气象, 2011, 37(2): 136-141. |
[Lei Lei, Sun Jisong, Wei Dong. Distinguishing the category of the summer convective weather by sounding data in Beijing[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2011, 37(2): 136-141.] |
/
〈 |
|
〉 |