基于变权-云模型理论的尉-且沙漠公路沙害综合评价

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.031

Abstract

Abstract:

Assessing aeolian sand hazards is fundamental to the construction, operation, and maintenance of desert highways. However, conventional evaluation methods often suffer from excessive subjectivity, highlighting the need for an objective and robust assessment framework. Focusing on the Yuli-Qiemo desert highway in China, this study proposes a novel, data-driven method for evaluating aeolian sand-hazard risks, based on extensive field investigations conducted in 2023 and analyses. First, a variable-weight cloud model was established, incorporating ten key indicators. A modified analytic hierarchy was used to determine the indicator fixed weights. Second, a dual-score evaluation method, integrated with computational algorithms, enabled automated batch processing of indicator stratification and dynamic weight adjustment based on variable-weight theory. Third, the variable-weight cloud model was used to classify hazard levels, which were validated against historical sand hazard records. The results indicate that (1) The proposed method enables efficient and accurate assessment of aeolian sand hazards along entire highways, transitioning from isolated segment evaluation to full-route analysis. This is achieved through the automated computation of state values and real-time adjustment of indicator weights. (2) Comparison with historical sand hazard records yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.91 (P<0.001), indicating a significant positive correlation within the 95% confidence interval and demonstrating the method’s ability to reduce human subjectivity. (3) The overall aeolian sand-hazard risk of the Yuli-Qiemo desert highway is high. Grade III hazard segments dominate (65.46%), followed by grade IV (30.91%), with no segments classified as grade I. The risk is low at the northern and southern ends of the highway, high in the middle segments, and gradually increases in severity from north to south. Middle segments K180-K250 and K30-K60 are the most severely affected and warrant prioritized mitigation efforts. This novel method for identifying and predicting aeolian sand hazard risks along desert highways offers critical insights to inform targeted prevention and control strategies.

Key words: Yuli-Qiemo desert highway, sand hazard, variable-weight cloud model, dual-score evaluation method, dynamic weight adjustment

LYU Mingkun, LIU Chunmei, YANG Xiangjun, LING Yuan, LI Shengyu, LYU Zhentao. Comprehensive evaluation of sand hazards on the Yuli-Qiemo desert highway based on the variable weight-cloud model theory[J].Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(1): 69-79.

Figures/Tables 14

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Tab. 1

Fig. 3

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Tab. 4

Tab. 5

Tab. 6

Characteristic values of the standard evaluation cloud for sand accumulation hazards on highways"

公路沙害等级	评价区间	$E x k$	$E n k$	$H e k$
轻度	0~25	12.5	4.167	0.417
中度	25~50	37.5	4.167	0.417
重度	50~75	62.5	4.167	0.417
极重度	75~100	87.5	4.167	0.417

Tab. 6

Fig. 4

Tab. 7

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

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评价目标	一级指标	二级指标	指标性质	恒权权重
沙漠公路沙害综合评价	区域地貌条件	流动沙丘高度/m	定量	0.213
		下垫面形态	定性	0.050
		沿线沙源分布/%	定性	0.117
	工程设计因素	路基高度/m	定量	0.083
		迎风弯凹凸面	定性	0.028
		坡率	定量	0.073
		曲线半径/m	定量	0.035
	区域风动力条件	输沙势/VU	定量	0.202
		起沙风频率/%	定量	0.148
		路风夹角/(°)	定量	0.050

评价指标	指标分级
评价指标	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ
流动沙丘高度/m	<1	1~3	3~5	>5
下垫面形态	草方格	石方格	砾石	自然表面
沿线沙源分布	分布有胡杨、红柳包、芦苇等植物，分布的淤土地、平沙地和稀疏沙丘疏密度为20%~40%，且有盐土、草甸土和龟裂性土分布	分布有红柳、沙拐枣等植物，分布的稀疏沙丘疏密度为20%~40%；或无植被分布的沙丘及沙丘链，其疏密度小于60%；或无植被分布的平沙地，有残余盐土、半固定风沙土和粗沙平地分布	分布有红柳、沙拐枣等植被，分布的沙丘及沙丘链疏密度为60%~80%；或无植被分布的稀疏沙丘，其疏密度为40%~60%，大部分为风沙土	无植被分布，分布的高大密集的沙丘及沙丘链，其疏密度为80%~100%，全部为风沙土
起沙风频率/%	<5	5~15	15~35	>35
输沙势/VU	<200	200~300	300~400	>400
路基高度/m	1~2	2~3	3~4	4~5
坡率	1:1~1:2	1:2~1:3	1:3~1:4	1:4~1:5
路风夹角/(°)	0~15	15~45	45~75	75~90

公路沙害等级	路面积沙厚度/cm	评分区间
轻度（一级）	≤5	0~25
中度（二级）	5~20	25~50
重度（三级）	20~50	50~75
极重度（四级）	≥50	75~100

评价指标	状态值
评价指标	R1	R2	R3	R4
移动沙丘高度	98.91	99.46	99.28	97.63
下垫面形态	24.01	23.38	26.07	25.79
沿线沙源分布	26.76	55.13	62.50	98.91
路基高度	34.49	33.72	33.61	34.86
迎风弯凹凸面	74.21	66.40	34.45	32.81
坡率	30.11	28.61	28.71	30.37
曲线半径	34.37	10.51	1.65	9.26
输沙势	24.90	31.58	35.86	48.89
起沙风频率	33.17	37.98	40.48	50.48
路风夹角	28.57	25.19	13.47	8.12

评价指标	恒权权重	变权权重
评价指标	恒权权重	R1	R2	R3	R4
移动沙丘高度	0.213	0.466	0.431	0.426	0.360
下垫面形态	0.050	0.027	0.024	0.026	0.022
沿线沙源分布	0.117	0.070	0.131	0.148	0.201
路基高度	0.083	0.063	0.057	0.056	0.050
迎风弯凹凸面	0.028	0.047	0.039	0.020	0.016
坡率	0.073	0.049	0.043	0.043	0.039
曲线半径	0.035	0.027	0.008	0.001	0.006
输沙势	0.202	0.112	0.130	0.146	0.171
起沙风频率	0.148	0.109	0.114	0.121	0.129
路风夹角	0.050	0.032	0.026	0.014	0.007

Comprehensive evaluation of sand hazards on the Yuli-Qiemo desert highway based on the variable weight-cloud model theory

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References 21

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路段	Ex	En	He
R1	73.674	2.018	0.521
R2	66.206	2.204	0.674
R3	66.329	2.358	0.563
R4	75.320	1.992	0.636

[1]	ZHENG Zhipeng, MA Benteng, CHENG Jianjun, WEI Jinming. Characteristics of wind-sand environment and control measures of sand damage along Yuli-Qiemo Desert Highway [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(10): 1680-1691.
[2]	WANG Xue-qin, LEI Jia-qiang. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ALIGNMENT OF ROUTES AND DEGREES OF WIND-SAND HAZARD IN THE DRIFTING-SAND REGION——A Case Study of Tarim Desert Highway [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2000, 23(3): 221-226.