人口增减分化对兰西城市群城市经济韧性的影响与作用路径

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.692

Abstract

Abstract:

As China accelerates the construction of new development models and advances high-quality development, human capital has become a key driver of intercity competitiveness. In recent years, the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration has experienced significant population decline and insufficient human capital competitiveness, which have directly weakened its urban economic resilience. This study examines six representative cities within the Lanzhou-Xining (Lanxi) urban agglomeration, employing a linear mixed-effects model to analyze the effects and mechanisms of differentiated population growth and decline on urban economic resilience in 2010, 2015, and 2020. The findings reveal the following characteristics of urban economic resilience in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration. (1) Between 2010 and 2020, urban economic resilience generally increased across the Lanxi region, forming a “core-edge” structure, with Lanzhou City and Xining City at the core and other cities at the periphery. (2) Variations in population growth significantly affected urban economic resilience, with population inflows exerting positive externalities on regional resilience. (3) The rationalization of the industrial structure did not moderate the impact of population change on urban economic resilience. In cities experiencing population loss, initial declines facilitated some degree of industrial restructuring; however, this mode of adjustment was not sustainable over time. (4) Population change also influenced the level of local informatization, which in turn affected urban economic resilience. Population growth supported the development of urban informatization, thereby strengthening urban economic resilience. Based on these findings, it is recommended to promote coordinated regional development, enhance human capital accumulation, accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading, and advance population policy in tandem with informatization initiatives to improve the economic resilience of major cities in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration.

Key words: population change, urban economic resilience, influence pathways, Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration

WANG Yifei, KONG Dezhen, LUO Yuxuan, MAO Jinhuang, WANG Meimei. Impact and pathways of population growth-decline differentiation on urban economic resilience in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(6): 1020-1030.

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References 34

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维度	指标	说明	方向
经济稳定性	通胀率	（本期CPI-上期CPI）/上期CPI	-
	人均GDP	GDP/常住人口	+
	城镇登记失业率	失业人口/适龄人口	-
	净出口与GDP比值	（出口-进口）/GDP	+
	财政赤字率	（财政支出-财政收入）/GDP	-
经济创新性	教育经费投入	教育事业经费支出/常住人口	+
	科技研发投入	R&D经费支出/常住人口	+
	创新成果产出	专利申请量+专利授予量	+
经济恢复性	人均固定资产投资额	固定资产投资总额/常住人口	+
	人均社会消费品零售额	社会消费品零售总额/常住人口	+
	旅游人数	年度旅游总人次	+
	GDP发展水平	名义GDP/CPI	+
	私营企业和个体就业人数占比	（私营企业就业人数+个体就业人数）/常住人口	+
经济流通性	金融机构贷款余额	年度金融机构贷款余额	+
经济流通性	人均货运量	货运量/常住人口	+

城市	2010年	2015年	2020年
兰州市	0.244	0.537	0.689
西宁市	0.156	0.360	0.368
海南藏族自治州	0.271	0.204	0.221
海东市	0.056	0.141	0.197
定西市	0.042	0.108	0.145
白银市	0.118	0.177	0.224

模型	固定效应	随机效应	校正赤池信息准则	对数似然	固定效应解释方差	总解释方差
a	人口变动	（截距\|城市）	-2.504	9.508	0.778	0.778
b	人口变动	（截距\|年份）	-3.103	12.826	0.751	0.893
c	人口变动	（截距\|城市）+（截距\|年份）	-2.504	9.508	0.778	0.889

参数	（截距\|城市）+（截距\|年份）	（截距\|城市）
截距	0.232（0.001）^***	0.232（0.021）^***
人口变动	-0.004（0.001）^***	-0.004（0.001）^***
组间方差	0.004	0.005

参数	模型1				标准化系数	模型2				标准化系数
参数	回归系数	标准误	t值	显著性	标准化系数	回归系数	标准误	t值	显著性	标准化系数
截距	0.232^**	0.021	11.070	0.000	-	0.010	0.058	0.173	0.865	-
人口变动	-0.004^**	0.001	-6.514	0.000	-0.852	-0.003^**	0.001	-4.547	0.000	-0.724
产业结构合理化程度	-	-	-	-	-	0.125	0.101	1.232	0.238	0.172
信息化程度	-	-	-	-	-	0.178^**	0.049	3.671	0.003	0.434

Impact and pathways of population growth-decline differentiation on urban economic resilience in the Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration

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中介路径	总效应	中介效应值	标准误	Z值	显著性	95%置信区间	直接效应
产业结构合理化程度中介效应	-0.004^**	0.001	0.124	0.004	0.997	-0.053~0.437	-0.003^**
信息化程度中介效应	-0.004^**	-0.001	0.105	-0.010	0.992	-0.449~-0.029	-0.003^**

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