基于SD模型的巴彦淖尔市水资源供需平衡方案研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.232

Abstract

Abstract:

With the development of the social economy, the contradiction between the supply and demand of urban water resources has become increasingly prominent. Exploring the balance between urban water resource supply and demand to achieve sustainable economic development has emerged as a critical issue in urban development planning. Based on the current state of local social development, four water resource supply-demand balance schemes (steady-state equilibrium, economic growth, efficient utilization, and comprehensive coordination)were designed using the system dynamics method. The supply and demand situation of water resources in Bayannur City, Inner Mongolia, China from 2016 to 2035 was analyzed. The simulation results indicate that: (1) If Bayannur City adopts the steady-state equilibrium or economic growth schemes, it will likely face a risk of water resource supply failing to meet demand during 2018—2027. (2) The efficient utilization and integrated coordination schemes can effectively mitigate this issue. (3) The comprehensive coordination scheme not only supports local economic development but also significantly reduces the water demand of agriculture, secondary industry, and tertiary industry, thereby alleviating the pressure on water supply and demand. This scheme can serve as the optimal approach for the future development and utilization of local water resources.

Key words: system dynamics, water supply and demand, water balance, Bayannur City

WANG Pingshun, ZANG Xuchao, HOU Fulai, TIAN Guoliang, LI Lu, HAN Xuemin, DONG Shaogang. Water resources supply and demand balance scheme of Bayannur City based on SD model[J].Arid Land Geography, 2025, 48(2): 202-211.

Figures/Tables 8

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变量		2020年	2021年	2022年
GDP	实际值/10⁸元	869.620	1015.230	1084.55
	模拟值/10⁸元	931.186	995.541	1065.430
	ARE误差/%	7.08	1.94	1.76
农业需水量	实际值/10⁸ m³	47.901	48.840	48.500
	模拟值/10⁸ m³	47.965	48.227	48.301
	ARE误差/%	0.13	1.26	0.41
总人口数	实际值/10⁸人	0.0150	0.0150	0.0152
	模拟值/10⁸人	0.0167	0.0166	0.0164
	ARE误差/%	8.28	8.41	8.37
第二产业需水量	实际值/10⁸ m³	0.641	0.689	0.600
	模拟值/10⁸ m³	0.682	0.661	0.648
	ARE误差/%	6.39	4.04	7.98
供水量	实际值/10⁸ m³	56.499	55.864	51.310
	模拟值/10⁸ m³	52.499	52.502	52.509
	ARE误差/%	7.08	6.02	2.34
需水量	实际值/10⁸ m³	49.890	49.790	49.780
	模拟值/10⁸ m³	54.281	54.537	54.616
	ARE误差/%	8.80	9.53	9.71

指标名称	基准年变量值	变量变化范围	基准年供需比	2035年供需比	SA
第二产业产值增长率	2.689%	0%~6.972%	1.04953	1.12010	1.012
第三产业产值增长率	12.572%	-15.788%~0%	1.04953	1.12006	-0.447
单位第二产业GDP需水量	3.76×10^-3 m³·元^-1	-2.816×10^-3~0 m³·元^-1	1.04974	1.12002	-24.958
单位第三产业GDP需水量	8.045×10^-4 m³·元^-1	-7.364×10^-4~0 m³·元^-1	1.04984	1.12006	-88.037
农村居民生活用水定额	19 m³·人^-1·a^-1	-1~0 m³·人^-1·a^-1	1.04970	1.12016	-0.070
城市居民生活用水定额	21 m³·人^-1·a^-1	-1~0 m³·人^-1·a^-1	1.04971	1.12022	-0.071
大型牲畜用水定额	21.9 m³·只^-1·a^-1	-1.095~0 m³·只^-1·a^-1	1.04959	1.12099	-0.065
小型牲畜用水定额	2.01 m³·只^-1·a^-1	-0.103~0 m³·只^-1·a^-1	1.04969	1.12038	-0.687
灌溉需水定额	6.0×10⁷ m³·hm^-2·a^-1	-3.0×10⁴~0 m³·hm^-2·a^-1	1.09701	1.16873	-35.860

Water resources supply and demand balance scheme of Bayannur City based on SD model

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