黄河流域城市生态韧性时空演变特征及影响因素分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2023.381

Abstract

Abstract:

A scientific assessment of urban ecological resilience in China's Yellow River Basin is crucial for shaping the basin's high-quality development advantages and creating a resilient and livable environment. Based on the four-dimensional framework of “Pressure-State-Response-Innovation”, this study constructs an urban ecological resilience evaluation system and investigates the temporal evolution, spatial distribution, and spatial difference characteristics of urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2020 using kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient, and other methods. Moreover, it applies the spatial Durbin model to analyze its influencing factors. The results showed that: (1) The urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin was effectively improved, and the evolution process and polarization characteristics of the downstream, midstream, and upstream were different. (2) The spatial pattern of urban ecological resilience showed a “downstream-midstream-upstream”, gradient decline, with obvious characteristics of spatial agglomeration and regional differentiation. (3) The overall and intraregional differences in urban ecological resilience fluctuated, and inter-regional differences were the main source of spatial differences, with an annual contribution rate of 65.44%. (4) Precipitation, economic development level, and public security construction positively impacted the improvement of urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin, and the opening up level had a positive spillover effect. Infrastructure construction and government intervention also showed a positive spillover effect in improving local urban ecological resilience, whereas the intensity of land development and the degree of environmental pollution would hinder the enhancement of urban ecological resilience. The degree of environmental pollution also had a negative spillover effect. In addition, significant differences were observed in the effects of the influencing factors in the downstream, midstream, and upstream of the Yellow River.

Key words: urban ecological resilience, spatiotemporal evolution, spatial difference, influencing factors, the Yellow River Basin

ZHANG Mingdou, REN Yanting, ZHOU Liang. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(3): 445-454.

Figures/Tables 8

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目标层	准则层	指标层	指标含义	属性	权重
城市生态韧性	压力维度	单位GDP供水量/10^-4m³·元^-1	城市水耗强度	-	0.038
		单位GDP能源消费量/10^-4tce·元^-1	城市能耗强度	-	0.041
		单位GDP建设用地占用面积/10^-8km²·元^-1	城市地耗强度	-	0.042
		单位GDP工业二氧化硫排放量/10^-8t·元^-1	环境污染强度	-	0.040
	状态维度	单位面积水资源总量/m³·km^-2	水资源丰富度	+	0.123
		归一化植被指数（NDVI）	生物资源水平	+	0.065
		人均公园绿地面积/m²·人^-1	生态宜居空间	+	0.070
		建成区绿化覆盖率/%	城市绿化水平	+	0.046
	响应维度	污水处理厂集中处理率/%	环境治理响应	+	0.040
		生活垃圾无害化处理率/%	人居环境改善	+	0.038
		一般工业固体废物综合利用率/%	废物综合利用	+	0.056
		节能环保支出占地方财政支出比/%	环保投入强度	+	0.075
	创新维度	研究与试验发展（R&D）经费投入占GDP比/%	研发投入强度	+	0.137
		科学技术支出占地方财政支出比/%	科技投入强度	+	0.141
		人均专利授权数量指数	创新产出水平	+	0.048

因素分类	影响因素	测度方法
生态空间环境	降水量（PRE）	年均降水量/mm
	土地开发强度（LU）	城市建设用地面积占城市总面积比重/%
	基础设施建设（INF）	人均道路面积/m²·人^-1
	环境污染程度（POL）	工业SO₂、工业废水排放量及PM_2.5年均浓度采用熵值法构建环境污染指数
社会经济环境	经济发展水平（ECO）	人均GDP/10⁴元·人^-1
	对外开放水平（OPEN）	货物进出口额占GDP比重/%
	政府干预程度（GOV）	环境污染治理投资占GDP比重/%
	公共安全建设（PS）	人均公共安全支出/元·人^-1

变量	黄河流域		上游地区		中游地区		下游地区
变量	直接效应	溢出效应	直接效应	溢出效应	直接效应	溢出效应	直接效应	溢出效应
PRE	0.052^*（1.88）	0.097（1.12）	0.025^**（2.51）	0.028（0.76）	0.020^*（1.76）	0.043（1.55）	-0.011（-0.66）	0.030（1.47）
LU	-0.048^***（-2.66）	-0.050（-1.02）	-0.030^*（-1.88）	-0.286^***（-4.77）	-0.042^***（3.76）	0.166^***（4.06）	-0.027^***（-2.86）	0.028（1.01）
POL	-0.017^*（-1.81）	-0.045^*（-1.94）	-0.001（-0.13）	-0.044^*（-1.70）	-0.034^***（-5.21）	-0.057^***（-3.04）	-0.016^***（-3.08）	-0.053^***（-3.98）
INF	0.048^***（3.60）	0.103^***（2.63）	0.040^***（3.06）	0.090（1.27）	0.002（0.24）	-0.005（-0.16）	0.036^*（1.76）	-0.009^**（2.03）
ECO	0.182^***（3.75）	-0.010（-0.10）	0.131^***（3.17）	-0.180^**（-2.33）	0.043（1.39）	-0.014^**（-2.01）	0.072^***（2.92）	0.167^***（2.97）
OPEN	0.009（1.00）	0.032^**（2.08）	-0.005^**（-2.25）	0.048^***（2.65）	0.001（0.34）	0.020（1.61）	0.007^**（2.33）	-0.015（-1.34）
GOV	0.012^**（1.99）	0.034^*（1.82）	-0.029^***（-2.86）	0.022（1.20）	0.019^**（2.47）	-0.022^**（-1.98）	-0.028^***（-4.58）	0.012（1.11）
PS	0.066^*（1.91）	0.026（0.29）	0.064^**（2.23）	0.078（0.83）	0.065^**（1.97）	0.047（0.69）	0.043^**（2.48）	0.022（0.44）
ρ	0.314^***（5.91）		0.520^***（12.78）		0.480^***（9.95）		0.413^***（8.09）
R²	0.545		0.256		0.280		0.129
Log-L	896.476		1001.339		1142.338		1265.606

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin

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