MSWEP降水产品在黄河流域气象干旱监测中的适用性评价

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.299

Abstract

Abstract:

This study aims to evaluate the accuracy of the multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MS WEP) product for drought monitoring in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1981 to 2020 using several statistical indicators and the standardized precipitation index (SPI) with multiple time scales. The run theory was used to identify drought events and quantitatively analyze their spatial and temporal characteristics. The following results are presented. (1) The monthly precipitation from the MSWEP product is well correlated with that from the ground observation represented by the Chinese precipitation analysis product (CPAP), and the determination coefficient reaches 0.9347. (2) The MSWEP product could successfully capture the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of multiyear precipitation. (3) The SPI calculated on the basis of the MSWEP product could generally reproduce the SPI pattern calculated on the basis of CPAP. However, the correlations differ from region to region. MSWEP product has a satisfactory performance in the middle and lower reaches of the river basin despite its poor performance in capturing the wetness or dryness condition in the source area of the Yellow River Basin with correlation coefficients lower than 0.5. Notably, the capability of the MSWEP product for capturing drought decreases with the increase in the SPI time scales. (4) The performance of the MSWEP product in the middle and lower reaches of the watershed is significantly better than that in the upper reaches. (5) MSWEP product can effectively capture the characteristics of drought events, such as duration, intensity, and severity. Thus, the MSWEP product is generally suitable for drought monitoring in the middle and low reaches of the Yellow River Basin. However, further correcting the overestimation error of precipitation in the application of MSWEP in areas with complex terrain in the source region of the Yellow River Basin is necessary.

Key words: drought monitoring, multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation (MSWEP) product, standardized precipitation index, applicability evaluation, Yellow River Basin

XU Xintong,ZHU Li,LYU Xiaoyu,GUO Hao. Applicability evaluation of MSWEP product for meteorological drought monitoring in the Yellow River Basin[J].Arid Land Geography, 2023, 46(3): 371-384.

Figures/Tables 13

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SPI值	干旱等级
SPI≤-2.0	特旱
-2.0<SPI≤-1.5	重旱
-1.5<SPI≤-1.0	中旱
-1.0<SPI≤-0.5	轻旱
SPI>-0.5	无旱

干旱事件	降水产品	起止时间	峰值时间	历时/个月	烈度	峰值	严重度
DE1	CPAP	1986年9—11月	1986年11月	3	1.17	1.24	3.51
DE1	MSWEP	1986年9—11月	1986年11月	3	1.31	1.36	3.93
DE2	CPAP	1997年6—12月	1997年10月	7	0.92	1.22	6.41
DE2	MSWEP	1997年6—12月	1997年10月	7	0.93	1.23	6.53
DE3	CPAP	1998年10月—1999年3月	1999年2月	6	1.35	2.27	8.09
DE3	MSWEP	1998年10月—1999年3月	1999年2月	6	1.13	1.90	6.79

Applicability evaluation of MSWEP product for meteorological drought monitoring in the Yellow River Basin

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