Abstract: In order to improve the ability to cope with meteorological disasters, the study of short-term heavy rain and hail weather forecast and early warning method must be further carried out. The mathematical statistics and cumulative frequency method are used in the paper. Statistical diagnosis contrast analysis is developed on the basis of the circulation background of short-time strong rainfall and hail weather during 2008-2014, as well as physical parameters. Strong convective weather conceptual model is built for the southeast of Gansu Province, China. The similarities and distinctions as well as physical parameters of the two kinds of strong convective weather are finally obtained: the shear line in the low troposphere impact system plays an important role in the short-time heavy rainfall and hail of the east of Gansu. It is much more likely to have short-time heavy rainfall than hail in lower atmosphere of 700 hPa with shear line. There is an obvious distinction between hail and short-time heavy rainfall in the physical parameters such as △T_700-500, the heights of 0℃ and -20℃, atmospheric precipitable water, 700hPa specific humidity, K index、θse500、θse700、0-6km vertical wind shear. The threshold is also obtained which is beneficial to the better distinguishing of the weathers. The innovations of the paper are that the circulation background of the short-time strong rainfall and hail and physical conditions of variance analysis are contributed to distinguish strong weather types. Tested results indicate that forecast indicators play an active role in the weather prediction in the southeast of Gansu Province, as to the difference of the proximity warning of the two kinds of strong convective weathers, the further studies should be carried out in future.

Key words: severe eonveetive weathe, convective parameter, comparative analysis, forecast warning indicators