Abstract: Urumqi region in which its economics is very developed and its population is concentrated has been one of the highest water resource utilization inland-river field in northwest China. As regards the degree of exploitation and utilization, there is not a quantity concept and exists many different recognitions.
According to setting up exchange simulation and pre-dictive model of water resource, this paper has calculated the present leading water quantity, net utilizing water quantity, present possible leading water quantity and possible utilizing water quantity in present water conservancy condition in average water year. The results show that the total practical water resource quantity is 6.432×10⁸ m³ in Urumqi region, however, the present net utilizing water quantity which is 111.2% of the total water resource quantity is 7.152×10⁸ m³ and exceeds the maximum possible leading water quantity（5.5779×10⁸ m³）and total water resource quantity in the condition of water balance. At the same time, the quantity of extra-excavating groundwater is about 1.20×10⁸ m³. Evidently, the exploitation and utilization of water resource is overdone. Such long term conditions as this＂water consuming deficit＂will threaten the industry and agriculture production and the stability of oasis in this region. Now it is necessary for us to reinforce the management of water resource systematically and to build a water-threft society.