新疆塔城地区极端气温变化特征及其影响因子分析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.02.06

Abstract

Abstract:

The Tacheng Prefecture is in the northwestern Xinjiang, China, and is sensitive to climate change. Based on the daily temperature data of seven national meteorological stations in the Tacheng Prefecture, sea surface temperature (SST) from the Physical Sciences Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and atmospheric circulation indices from the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration from 1961 to 2018, and using some mathematical statistics method, such as the least-squares method, the R/S analysis method, Mann-Kendall tests, and the correlation analysis method, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme air temperature indices and its influencing factors were analyzed. The results show that the annual maximum daily maximum temperature indices increased at a rate of 0.09 ℃ per decade, which is insignificant, whereas the annual minimum of daily minimum temperature indices warmed at a rate of 0.97 ℃ per decade. The cool indices (cool days, cool nights, frosts days, and icing days) decreased at rates of 1.75 ℃, 5.24 ℃, 4.07 ℃, and 1.84 ℃ per decade, whereas warm indices (warm nights, summer days, and tropical nights) significantly increased at rates of 1.79 ℃, 5.89 ℃, 2.18 ℃, and 2.08 ℃ per decade. The future trends of 10 extreme temperature indices were the same as the past 58 years. The variation of cool and warm indices was asymmetrical. The magnitude of the coldest daily minimum temperature was greater than the warmest daily maximum temperature. The change range of night indices (cool nights, warm nights) was larger than that of day indices (cool days, warm days). The warming magnitude of the most extreme temperature indices was greater in the northern Tacheng Prefecture than the southern. The annual minimum daily minimum temperature (cool days and cool nights) changed suddenly in the early 1980s, and warm days, warm nights, summer nights, tropical nights, and frost days showed a sudden warming change in the mid-1990s. In summary, the influence of atmospheric circulation was higher for cool indices than warm indices. Cool days, cool nights, frost days, and icing days positively correlated with circulation indices, such as the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex area, Asia polar vortex area index in winter, Pacific polar vortex area, North America polar vortex area, Atlantic-Eurasian polar vortex area index, Eurasian and Asian meridional circulation index. However, these cool indices negatively correlated with Eurasian and Asian zonal circulation and the Tibetan Plateau index. Those warm indices (warm days, warm nights, summer days, and tropical nights) positively correlated with the Northern Hemisphere subtropical high area, Western Pacific subtropical high area indices in summer, and the Tibetan Plateau index. The cool indices negatively correlated with Atlantic Ocean SST and Niño Region (Tropical Pacific) SST, whereas warm indices positively correlated with Atlantic Ocean SST, more remarkable night indices responded to SST than day indices.

Key words: extreme temperature events, change characteristics, atmospheric circulation index, sea surface temperature, Tacheng Prefecture

GAO Jing,LI Shengnan,JING Lihong,MAO Weiyi,JING Lijun. Varialility characteristics of extreme temperature and its influencing factors in Tacheng Prefecture, Xinjiang[J].Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(2): 346-359.

Figures/Tables 13

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Tab. 7

Tab. 8

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类型	名称	代码	单位	定义
极值指数	最高气温极高值	TXx	℃	每年T_max的最大值
极值指数	最低气温极低值	TNn	℃	每年T_min的最小值
相对指数	冷昼日数	TX10p	d	T_max<1961—2018年的第10个百分位值的天数
	冷夜日数	TN10p	d	T_min<1961—2018年的第10个百分位值的天数
	暖昼日数	TX90p	d	T_max>1961—2018年的第90个百分位值的天数
	暖夜日数	TN90p	d	T_min>1961—2018年的第90个百分位值的天数
绝对指数	霜冻日数	FD0	d	每年T_min<0 ℃的天数
	冰冻日数	ID0	d	每年T_max<0 ℃的天数
	夏季日数	SU25	d	每年T_max>25 ℃的天数
	热夜日数	TR20	d	每年T_min>20 ℃的天数

极端指数变化趋势	1961— 1970年	1971— 1980年	1981— 1990年	1991— 2000年	2001— 2010年	2011— 2018年	塔城地区	全球^[28]	中国^[29]	西北地区^[30]	新疆^[31]	天山北坡^[18]
TXx/℃·(10a)^-1	-0.84	0.09	-0.08	1.08	0.09	0.42	0.09	0.11	-	0.17	-	0.02
TNn/℃·(10a)^-1	-5.86	2.05	-0.82	-1.75	0.74	7.80	0.97***	0.45	-	0.46	-	0.63**
TX10p/d·(10a)^-1	27.40	-11.18	-2.10	-3.00	0.25	-15.29	-1.75	-0.67*	-0.70*	-1.50	-2.60**	-1.07*
TN10p/d·(10a)^-1	23.93	-17.60	-6.76	-0.41	-2.37	-14.68	-5.24***	-1.09*	-1.44**	-4.80*	-6.57**	-3.23**
TX90p/d·(10a)^-1	-9.49	13.62	-8.51	24.23	3.23	12.33	1.79*	0.80*	1.00*	2.44*	3.59**	1.28*
TN90p/d·(10a)^-1	-6.32	15.19	0.36	30.99	3.71	6.09	5.89***	1.17	2.12**	4.52*	6.23**	2.95**
FD0/d·(10a)^-1	14.66	-12.47	2.94	-4.72	-1.97	0.68	-4.07***	-1.80*	-2.84**	-	-3.69**	-2.89**
ID0/d·(10a)^-1	23.11	-3.38	-6.85	1.96	7.07	-12.21	-1.84*	-1.23*	-	-	-1.61*	-1.63*
SU25/d·(10a)^-1	-17.90	11.58	1.27	24.39	0.48	-3.61	2.18**	0.47*	1.77**	-	2.14*	1.34*
TR20/d·(10a)^-1	-4.48	4.13	-1.16	13.81	3.46	2.94	2.08***	0.91*	1.44**	-	1.17**	2.05**

冷指数	过去趋势	Hurst值	未来趋势	持续强度	暖指数	过去趋势	Hurst值	未来趋势	持续强度
TNn	+	0.84	+	强	TXx	+	0.65	+	较弱
TX10p	–	0.73	–	较强	TX90p	+	0.66	+	较强
TN10p	–	0.90	–	极强	TN90p	+	0.91	+	极强
FD0	–	0.82	–	强	SU25	+	0.72	+	较强
ID0	–	0.72	–	较强	TR20	+	0.88	+	极强

极端指数	T_mean	TXx	TNn	TX10p	TN10p	TX90p	TN90p	FD0	ID0	SU25	TR20
突变年份	1989年	○	1980年	1980年	1981年	1995年	1993年	1994年	1987年	1995年	1994年
突变后增/减百分比	↑21.7%	○	↑13.5%	↓21.5%	↓33.0%	↑25.3%	↑72.9%	↓8.6%	↓8.1%	↑9.4%	↑67.8%
突变后变化趋势	↗	○	↗	↘	↘	↗	↗	↘	↘	↗	↗
显著升/降年份	1991年	○	1991年	1999年	1987年	2008年	1989年	1997年	2006年	2005年	1997年

地理位置	TNn	TX10p	TN10p	FD0	ID0	TXx	TX90p	TN90p	SU25	TR20
经度	-0.50	0.74	0.38	0.43	0.89*	-0.08	-0.77*	-0.44	-0.29	0.30
纬度	-0.19	-0.61	-0.07	-0.76	-0.47	0.66	0.67	0.32	0.23	-0.78*
海拔高度	-0.52	-0.05	-0.05	-0.50	0.30	0.50	-0.06	-0.01	0.09	-0.53

Varialility characteristics of extreme temperature and its influencing factors in Tacheng Prefecture, Xinjiang

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环流指数		冷指数					环流指数		暖指数
环流指数		TNn	TX10p	TN10p	FD0	ID0	环流指数		TXx	TX90p	TN90p	SU25	TR20
北半球极涡面积	冬季	-0.40**	0.37**	0.45**	0.36**	0.32*	北半球副热带高压面积	夏季	0.07	0.25	0.69**	0.29*	0.57**
	12月	-0.16	0.15	0.20	0.17	0.10		6月	0.06	0.24	0.62**	0.26*	0.52**
	1月	-0.37**	0.44**	0.48**	0.29*	0.39**		7月	0.08	0.22	0.62**	0.25	0.55**
	2月	-0.37**	0.24	0.32*	0.33*	0.23		8月	0.04	0.26*	0.67**	0.33*	0.56**
亚洲极涡面积	冬季	-0.33*	0.47**	0.43**	0.18	0.35**	西太平洋副热带高压面积	夏季	0.05	0.16	0.50**	0.10	0.43**
	12月	0.00	0.10	0.09	0.16	0.06		6月	0.05	0.24	0.54**	0.18	0.48**
	1月	-0.34**	0.47**	0.38**	0.05	0.27*		7月	0.11	0.13	0.41**	0.03	0.35**
	2月	-0.33*	0.39**	0.41**	0.20	0.42**		8月	-0.03	0.04	0.38**	0.07	0.31*

指数	冷指数					暖指数
指数	TNn	TX10p	TN10p	FD0	ID0	TXx	TX90p	TN90p	SU25	TR20
AMO	0.30*	-0.28*	-0.46**	-0.61**	-0.38**	-0.03	0.32*	0.66**	0.44**	0.62**
NTA	0.25	-0.2	-0.41**	-0.52**	-0.33*	0.01	0.23	0.55**	0.28*	0.50**
TSA	0.11	-0.02	-0.24	-0.25	-0.20	0.04	0.15	0.41**	0.15	0.35**
TNA	0.15	-0.18	-0.33*	-0.47**	-0.31*	0.00	0.25	0.49**	0.27*	0.46**
CAR	0.41**	-0.32*	-0.50**	-0.60**	-0.42**	-0.02	0.27*	0.61**	0.35**	0.57**
Niño3	0.31*	-0.30*	-0.41**	-0.30*	-0.21	0.24	0.16	0.22	0.05	0.21
Niño4	0.29*	-0.22	-0.37**	-0.34**	-0.25	0.01	0.02	0.16	0.00	0.10
Niño1+2	0.31*	-0.28*	-0.39**	-0.28*	-0.15	0.28*	0.18	0.28*	0.06	0.29*
Niño3.4	0.28*	-0.27*	-0.35**	-0.25	-0.23	0.13	0.06	0.10	-0.02	0.08

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