利用树木年轮重建阿勒泰地区1572—2014年初夏平均温度

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000–6060.2021.01.03

Abstract

Abstract:

Dendroclimatology is one of the important methods for examining the past global climate changes. Here, the study area is the upper stream of China’s climate and weather, located on the Altay Mountains’ southern slope in northwestern China. Reconstructing the climatic variation series in this region is very important in recognizing the climatic variations on the Altay Mountains’ southern slope in the past. In the summer of 2014, the three tree-ring samples sites (trees of 79 and tree cores of 261) were collected for Larix sibirica from the upper tree line of forests at the midwestern Altay Mountains. We developed three kinds of tree-ring width chronologies by the ARSTAN program. In this study, we chose the regional tree-ring standard chronology (DKH) and used 7 meteorological station data close to the sampling site. Single correlation census showed that the correlation between the regional tree-ring chronology from the 7 meteorological stations and the average current June temperature is significant with the best single correlation coefficient of 0.705 (P<0.00001). In this study, we used the regional tree-ring standard chronology to reconstruct this region’s average June temperature since 1572 AD. The explained variance of the function was 49.6% (F=50.27948, P<0.00001). Many verifications showed that the reconstructed temperature series was reliable. After 11 a of reconstructed temperature series was calculated, in the past 443 a, we found the following: (1) 10 warm periods in 1577—1585, 1605—1622, 1636—1644, 1654—1681, 1724—1752, 1805—1808, 1831—1844, 1875—1913, 1950—1980, and 1993—2009; and (2) nine cold periods were found in 1586—1604, 1623—1635, 1645—1653, 1682—1723, 1753—1804, 1809—1830, 1845—1874, 1929—1938, and 1981—1992. The warmest period occurred in 1605—1622, and the coldest period occurred in 1682—1723. The 1875—1913 period was the most extended warm period, whereas the 1753—1804 period was the most prolonged cold period. Power spectrum analysis showed that there exist some significant change periods of 2.37-2.39 a and 2.19 a (P<0.05) and 73.50 a, 14.00 a, 7.30 a, and 2.29 a (P<0.10) in temperature. The cycle of 2.19 a may be related to the quasi-biennial oscillation. The moving t-test technique showed the abrupt change of temperature occurred in the 1684 and 1719 periods from cold to warm in this region. According to the spatial correlation analysis results, the temperature reconstructed series represents the early summer temperature changes in the Altay Prefecture. Our reconstructed mean June temperature series change trend, cold, and warm periods were consistent with the former reconstructed temperature series of the Altay Mountains western and south slopes.

Key words: Altay Prefecture, Larix sibirica, regional standardization chronology, average temperature change

NIU Junqiang,YUAN Yujiang,ZHANG Tongwen,CHEN Feng,ZHANG Ruibo,SHANG Huaming,JIANG Shengxia. Reconstruction of early summer temperature during 1572—2014 from tree-rings in the Altay Prefecture[J].Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(1): 27-35.

Figures/Tables 10

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References 35

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采样点名称	北纬/N	东经/E	海拔/m	坡向	坡度/°	最大树龄/a	样本量（株/树芯）
大东沟南（DDN）	48°11′	88°14′	2219	SSW	25°	337	24/78
喀拉哈依萨依（KLH）	47°55′	88°30′	2299	NW	23°	493	26/87
红山嘴南（HSN）	48°03′	88°55′	2403	NEE	17°	477	29/96

年表	DDN	KLH	HSN
大东沟南（DDN）	1	0.594^*	0.549^*
喀拉哈依萨依（KLH）	0.594^*	1	0.602^*
红山嘴南（HSN）	0.549^*	0.602^*	1

统计量	DKH年表
平均敏感度	0.181
标准差	0.193
一阶自相关	0.358
所有序列相关系数	0.370
信噪比	80.527
样本总体代表性	98.8
子样本信号强度（SSS）>0.85的起始年	1572

偏暖阶段	年数/a	平均距平/℃	偏冷阶段	年数/a	平均距平/℃
1577—1585年	9	0.19	1586—1604年	19	0.16
1605—1622年	18	0.55	1623—1635年	13	0.29
1636—1644年	9	0.23	1645—1653年	9	0.35
1654—1681年	28	0.53	1682—1723年	42	0.54
1724—1752年	29	0.29	1753—1804年	52	0.37
1805—1808年	4	0.26	1809—1830年	22	0.39
1831—1844年	14	0.32	1845—1874年	30	0.25
1875—1913年	39	0.29	1929—1938年	10	0.08
1950—1980年	31	0.25	1981—1992年	12	0.31
1993—2009年	17	0.45

Reconstruction of early summer temperature during 1572—2014 from tree-rings in the Altay Prefecture

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