黄河流域城乡收入差距时空格局及其对城镇化的响应

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.050

Abstract

Abstract:

Interpreting the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the urban-rural income gap and the urbanization level in the Yellow River Basin and exploring their relationship are of great significance for addressing the imbalance in urban-rural and regional development, narrowing the urban-rural income gap, and promoting integrated urban-rural development. This paper took 76 prefectures and cities in the Yellow River Basin as research objects and employed the Theil index, kernel density estimation, spatial econometric model, GIS, and mathematical analysis methods to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the urban-rural income gap and urbanization level from 2005 to 2020. It revealed the extent of the former’s response to the latter and examined other influencing factors of the urban-rural income gap. The results indicated the following. (1) From 2005 to 2020, the urban-rural income gap in the Yellow River Basin showed a narrowing trend, that in different zones exhibited a stair-step increase trend of “lower reaches<middle reaches<upper reaches”, and that between regions showed a narrowing and converging trend. Looking at different regions, 35 prefectures and cities, including Aba, Ankang, and Linfen, showed an “inverted U-shaped” trend in the urban-rural income gap, whereas 35 prefectures and cities, including Anyang, Baoji, and Baotou, showed a nearly linear trend in the urban-rural income gap. In terms of spatial distribution, the urban-rural income gap in the Yellow River Basin showed an upward trend from north to south and tended to decrease from west to east. (2) From 2005 to 2020, the urbanization level in the Yellow River Basin transformed from being mainly at a low level to being mainly at a medium to high level, with a significant increase in urbanization level. (3) The impact of urbanization level on the urban-rural income gap in the Yellow River Basin exhibited a nonlinear “inverted U-shaped” feature. After the urbanization level exceeded a certain threshold, its impact on the urban-rural income gap changed from positive promotion to negative inhibition. The impact of urbanization level on the urban-rural income gap exhibited spatial heterogeneity. In the upstream and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin, the impact of urbanization level on the urban-rural income gap showed an “inverted U-shaped” feature, whereas the impact of urbanization level on the urban-rural income gap exhibited a negative linear feature in the downstream area. There was a spatial spillover effect of urbanization level in adjacent areas, and both the local urbanization level and the urbanization level in adjacent areas had significant nonlinear inverted “U-shaped” relationships with the local urban-rural income gap. These research results can provide reference and guidance for narrowing the urban-rural income gap in the Yellow River Basin and promoting urban-rural integration.

Key words: urban-rural income, urbanization, spatial lag model, Yellow River Basin

SHI Haijin, ZHAO Xinzheng, LI Xiangxiang, HUANG Yuzhong, YU Xing, XIANGLI Bochen. Spatio-temporal pattern of urban-rural income gap in the Yellow River Basin and its response to urbanization[J].Arid Land Geography, 2024, 47(10): 1781-1793.

Figures/Tables 12

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年份	莫兰指数	莫兰指数均值	莫兰指数标准差	Z统计量	P值
2005	0.024	-0.013	0.015	2.260	0.024
2010	0.052	-0.013	0.015	4.214	0.000
2015	0.086	-0.013	0.016	6.321	0.000
2020	0.070	-0.013	0.015	5.604	0.000

模型种类	显著性检验
LM-lag	8.702^***
Robust LM-lag	8.886^***
LM-error	0.022
Robust LM-error	0.186
Hausman	79.260^***
LR_ind	23.130
LR_time	446.180^***

变量	OLS模型1	SLM模型2	SLM模型3
(lnui)²	-1.1745^*** （0.1177）	-1.1448^*** （0.1149）	-1.1138^*** （0.1166）
lnui	-3.2045^*** （0.2339）	-2.9685^*** （0.2459）	-3.0231^*** （0.2223）
lnesin	-0.5754^** （0.2671）	0.3741 （0.2747）
lnfaipi	-0.0909^*** （0.0303）	-0.0991^*** （0.0306）
lnpbea	0.0779 （0.0513）	-0.1271^** （0.0608）
lnhmpa	-0.1453^*** （0.0287）	-0.1090^*** （0.0323）
AIC	370.7102	359.3769
BIC	396.7294	389.1132
R-sq	0.59	0.58

变量	黄河流域上游	黄河流域中游	黄河流域下游
(lnui)²	-1.1411^*** （0.1710）	-0.9182^*** （0.2726）	-0.3988 （0.3507）
lnui	-3.0147^*** （0.3880）	-2.2709^*** （0.5491）	-1.0993^* （0.6349）
lnesin	0.0932 （0.4016）	-1.4921^** （0.7290）	1.0006^* （0.5938）
lnfaipi	-0.0593 （0.0640）	-0.1025^** （0.0476）	-0.0494 （0.0342）
lnpbea	-0.1846^** （0.0918）	-0.1218 （0.1081）	-0.3446^** （0.1501）
lnhmpa	-0.1470^*** （0.0538）	-0.3776^*** （0.1094）	-0.1206 （0.1361）

变量	直接效应		间接效应		总效应
变量	系数	Z值	系数	Z值	系数	Z值
(lnui)²	-1.1375^***	-9.90	-0.4821^***	-3.29	-1.6196^***	-7.10
lnui	-2.8861^***	-11.97	-1.2198^***	-3.44	-4.1059^***	-8.19
lnesin	0.3580	1.33	0.1499	1.20	0.5079	1.31
lnfaipi	-0.1058^***	-3.31	-0.0444^**	-2.48	-0.1503	-3.21
lnpbea	-0.1132^*	-1.72	-0.0465	-1.49	-0.1597^*	-1.69
lnhmpa	-0.0975^***	-3.34	-0.0404^***	-2.60	-0.1379^***	-3.36

Spatio-temporal pattern of urban-rural income gap in the Yellow River Basin and its response to urbanization

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