陕北能源开发区产业同构化对比研究与趋势预测

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.05.27

Abstract

Abstract: A correct understanding of the situation and evolution trend of regional industrial isomorphism is of great practical significance to formulate scientific economic development policies,especially industrial development policies.Taking Yulin City,the energy exploitation area of northern Shaanxi Province,China,as the source of samples in the study area,the industrial structure model was analyzed firstly with the three industry data during the time period from 1995 to 2015.Then the industrial isomorphism was measured by the similarity coefficient of industrial structure,and compared from both the horizontal and vertical dimensions.Besides,the R/S analysis was adopted to forecast the evolution trend of the industrial isomorphism in Yulin City.The results have revealed as follows:(1) The industrial structure in Yulin City presented a typical mode of "the secondary > the tertiary > the primary",which means the secondary industry constitutes a large portion,and has become the leading force in driving the economic development. (2) The industrial isomorphism in northern Yulin (covering six counties) is at a high-level.So is it in southern Yulin (covering another six counties).Especially the similarity coefficient is 0.976 2 between Shenmu County and Fugu County,and 0.967 5 between Jiaxian and Qingjian County.The majority of the similarity coefficients between six counties in the north and the other six counties in the south are less than 0.9,indicating a less obvious industrial isomorphism. (3) The similar coefficient of the industrial structures between the six counties in the north as a whole and the six counties in the south as a whole is 0.611 2 (> 0.5),which indicated that if the industries continue to be developed without change under the circumstances,the level of industrial isomorphism will keep increased in a periodical variation.The study suggests that the industrial isomorphism in Yulin City has its own inevitability because of the similarity in the resources and tight connection in the economic development among the counties and people there should realize it in setting up future policies to promote regional economic development.

Key words: industrial structure, industrial isomorphism, the similar coefficient, R/S analysis, Yulin City

CLC Number:

F127

XIA Si-you, WEN Qi, ZHAO Yuan, SONG Yong-yong, DU Yi-xian, QIAO Li-na. A comparative study of industrial isomorphism and trend forecast in energy exploitation area of northern Shaanxi Province[J].干旱区地理, 2018, 41(5): 1132-1142.

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A comparative study of industrial isomorphism and trend forecast in energy exploitation area of northern Shaanxi Province

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