不对称性相互依赖背景下中吉自由贸易实现路径——基于局部均衡理论的模拟

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2018.04.01

Abstract

Abstract: The asymmetry interdependence is the normal state of economic and trade cooperation between China and Kyrgyzstan.Free trade between China and Kyrgyzstan is an important part of the interconnection strategy of the Silk Road Economic Belt,and it is also a breakthrough point for China to carry out the free trade zone process to the west.The paper uses the partial equilibrium model to simulate the trade effects and domestic economic effects of China and Kyrgyzstan free trade zone under different tariff strategies from the BEC products.The research shows that under the same scope of tariff cuts,the changes in the trade effect between 2002 and 2016 in China and Kyrgyzstan are basically the same as the changes in the export trade of the two countries at that stage,which indicated that the trade effect is positively related to the trade volume.In 2016,the mutual reduction of tariffs between China and Kyrgyzstan has a significant impact on the trade effect,welfare improvement and tariff loss of the two sides,and there are significant differences in the impact on different commodities,especially for China's trade promotion.For China,the most important products for trade promotion and impact on China are processed industrial products.It is also the most obvious tariff loss to China.The most significant product for China's welfare improvement is industrial finished goods.Primary industrial supplies are the products that have the most significant impact on Kyrgyzstan's trade promotion.The most significant products for Kyrgyzstan's welfare improvement and tax losses are processed industrial products.The key to achieving the free trade between China and Kyrgyzstan is to find a balance between the two sides, so as to increase the enthusiasm of the Kyrgyz Republic to build a free trade zone.Based on comprehensive considerations,China's optimal strategy is to directly adopt zero tariffs,while Kyrgyzstan is gradually reducing tariffs.

Key words: asymmetry interdependence, China-Kyrgyzstan free trade, partial equilibrium model, trade effect

CLC Number:

F741.2

GAO Zhi-gang, SONG Ya-dong. Way of free trade between China and Kyrgyzstan under the background of asymmetry interdependence:A simulation based on partial equilibrium theory[J].干旱区地理, 2018, 41(4): 679-685.

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Way of free trade between China and Kyrgyzstan under the background of asymmetry interdependence:A simulation based on partial equilibrium theory

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