近期哈尔里克山脉冰川变化遥感监测

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 哈尔里克山脉冰川的快速退缩已经影响到吐鲁番坎儿井的水量，先前关于该区冰川研究不够细致，且最新资料报道较为短缺。以哈尔里克山脉冰川为研究对象，基于Landsat TM/ETM+和OLI影像（1992、2002、2010、2016年），通过比值阈值法、目视解译结合GIS技术，提取了该地区四期冰川边界，同时对研究区周边气温、降水以及日照时数进行线性趋势分析，研究其与冰川的响应关系。结果表明：（1）1992—2016年，哈尔里克山脉冰川总体呈现出持续退缩趋势，面积退缩了13.18%，年均退缩率为0.56%，近年来退缩速率有所减缓。（2）近似估算的冰储量在过去25 a间减少了18.33%，冰川物质亏损将对该区短缺的水资源提供了危险的信号。（3）冰川退缩率与冰川规模呈指数函数变化趋势；低海拔区冰川存在明显的末端升高趋势；N和NW向的冰川占明显优势，但N向退缩率最慢。（4）分形理论分析表明该地区冰川未来退缩将趋于一种稳定状态。该区气温和日照时数的显著上升导致其冰川退缩，同时冰川规模、海拔和坡向分布也是冰川变化的重要因素；对比发现该区冰川退缩速率较天山其他区域慢。

关键词: 哈尔里克, 冰川变化, 遥感, 分形理论

Abstract: The glacier change can affect human survival and socio-economic development.Therefore,how to improve dynamic monitoring of glacier change is especially important.This paper took the glaciers in Hal Rick Mountain,east Tianshan Mountains,China as the study object.The number of glaciers and the boundary,area,elevation and exposure of each glacier and the changes in those aspects were investigated using the ratio threshold method and visual interpretation based on ASTER-GDEM and Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI remotely sensed data from 1992,2002,2010 and 2016.Meanwhile,the climate data in the surrounding area were analyzed using linear regression to understand the relationship between glacier and climate change.A relationship between perimeter and area was established using the fractal theory,and we calculated the fractal dimension and the spatial structure stability index of the glaciers by linear regression analysis.According to the stability index,the basic characteristics of the glacier change from 1992 to 2016 in the Hal Rick Mountain were analyzed and a preliminary forecast of glacier change trend in the future was given.The results show that the glacier areas in the region was decreased by 13.18% from 1992 to 2016,the average annual recession rate was 0.56%.The glaciers recession rate had been slowed down in the last few years.The estimated ice reserves had been fallen by 18.33% in the past 25 years which signals an alarm on the region[JP8]'[JP]s water supply.The recession ratios and the scales of the glaciers showed an exponential function distribution trend in general with an obvious rising tendency for those glaciers of low altitude. The smaller glaciers displayed bigger recession rates than the larger glaciers.The glaciers on the northeastern slope have the bigger recession rates while those on the northern slope,the smaller recession rates..The characteristics of the spatial structure of the glaciers were analyzed based on the fractal theory which indicated that the recession of the glaciers will tend to be stable in the future.The glacier change is a response to the remarkable rise of the temperature and increase of sunshine duration.The annual precipitation showed an downward trend which had not compensated the mass loss of water resource caused by the glacier recession.It may become a threat in the summer when the decreased runoff leads to water shortage for household water consumption in the areas of low altitudes.

Key words: Hal Rick Mountain, glacier change, remote sensing, fractal theory

中图分类号:

TP79

何毅, 闫浩文, 杨宇雷, 刘文婷, 张立峰, 邱丽莎. 近期哈尔里克山脉冰川变化遥感监测[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(2): 358-366.

HE Yi, YAN Hao-wen, YANG Yu-lei, LIU Wen-ting, ZHANG Li-feng, QIU Li-sha. Dynamic monitoring of glacier change in Hal Rick Mountain[J]. 干旱区地理, 2018, 41(2): 358-366.

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