陕西省固碳服务供需关系时空演变特征及影响因素

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.761

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (5): 939-948.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.761 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025761

陕西省固碳服务供需关系时空演变特征及影响因素

耿甜伟¹^,²(), 韩晚星¹^,², 林菲¹^,², 李振环³()

¹ 太原师范学院地理科学学院，山西晋中 030619
² 太原师范学院汾河流域地表过程与资源生态安全山西省重点实验室，山西晋中 030619
³ 宁波财经学院人文学院，浙江宁波 315175

收稿日期:2025-11-24 修回日期:2025-12-18 出版日期:2026-05-25 发布日期:2026-05-25
通讯作者: 李振环（1990-），男，博士，讲师，主要从事区域可持续发展及空间管控等方面的研究. E-mail: lizhenhuan@nbufe.edu.cn
作者简介:耿甜伟（1993-），男，博士，讲师，主要从事生态系统服务及空间规划等方面的研究. E-mail: gengtianwei1002@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(42301346);山西省基础研究计划(202203021222243);山西省基础研究计划(202303021222222);浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题(24NDQN126YBM);宁波财经学院硕士学位培育点重点项目(1320230943)

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the supply and demand relationship of carbon sequestration services in Shaanxi Province

GENG Tianwei¹^,²(), HAN Wanxing¹^,², LIN Fei¹^,², LI Zhenhuan³()

¹ Institute of Geographical Science, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, Shanxi, China
² Shanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Security in Fenhe River Valley, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, Shanxi, China
³ College of Humanities, Ningbo University of Finance and Economics, Ningbo 315175, Zhejiang, China

Received:2025-11-24 Revised:2025-12-18 Published:2026-05-25 Online:2026-05-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

生态系统固碳服务供需时空演变特征及其影响机制对于破解碳治理难题，实现“双碳目标”具有重要的现实意义和参考价值。以陕西省为例，通过碳固持表征固碳供给，修正能源消耗量表征固碳需求，分析了2015—2023年陕西省固碳服务供需时空演变特征及供需关系转化过程，并借助地理探测器揭示影响供需关系的主导因子及交互作用，填补了固碳服务供需影响因素的薄弱环节。结果表明：（1） 2015—2023年陕西省固碳供给呈波动缓慢增长，不同区域差异显著，但空间特征变化不大，低值区与高值区由北向南依次间隔分布。（2） 2015—2023年陕西省固碳需求持续快速增加，2023年高值范围进一步扩大，低值与次低值范围减少。（3） 2015—2023年陕西省固碳供需状态从轻度盈余变为轻度赤字，且赤字有扩大的趋势，多数区县供需状态转移方向为“下探式”。空间特征上表现为南北高、中间低，盈余区县与赤字区县组团分布且界限明显。（4）固碳需求对供需关系的影响高于供给，其中能源因素影响最大，社会经济因素次之，自然因素影响最小。年均降水量、私人汽车拥有量、民用汽车拥有量、人口数量、工业废气排放量是影响供需关系的主导因子。主导因子交互后作用均高于交互前，除工业废气排放量与其余因子为非线性增强效应外，其余因子交互效应均为双因子增强。

关键词: 固碳服务, 供需特征, 影响因素, 陕西省

Abstract:

Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing mechanisms of the supply and demand of ecosystem carbon sequestration services is critical for solving carbon governance problems and achieving dual carbon goals. Taking Shaanxi Province of China as an example, this study measured carbon sequestration supply via sequestration capacity and demand via revised energy consumption. It also analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and the transformation process of the supply-demand relationship of carbon sequestration services in Shaanxi Province from 2015 to 2023 and identified the dominant factors and interactive effects affecting the supply-demand relationship with the help of the geodetector method, filling the gaps on influencing factors of carbon sequestration service supply and demand. The results reveal that (1) From 2015 to 2023, the carbon sequestration supply in Shaanxi Province exhibited a fluctuating and slow growth trend, with significant differences among different regions, with only slight changes in spatial characteristics. The low- and high-value areas were distributed alternately from north to south. (2) From 2015 to 2023, the carbon sequestration demand in Shaanxi Province continued to increase rapidly. In 2023, the scope of high-value areas further expanded, whereas the scope of low- and sub-low-value areas decreased. (3) The supply-demand status of carbon sequestration in Shaanxi Province shifted from mild surplus to mild deficit from 2015 to 2023, with a tendency of deficit expansion. The supply-demand status of most districts and counties shifted in a “declining” direction. Regarding spatial characteristics, a high in the north and south and low in the middle pattern was observed, with surplus districts/counties and deficit districts/counties distributed in clusters and their boundaries being distinct. (4) The impact of carbon sequestration demand on the supply-demand relationship was stronger than that of supply, with energy factors having the greatest impact, followed by socioeconomic factors, and natural factors having the smallest effect. The annual average precipitation, private car ownership, civil car ownership, population size, and industrial waste gas emissions were dominant factors affecting the supply-demand relationship. The interactive effects of the dominant factors were all higher than those before the interaction; however, the interaction between industrial waste gas emissions and other factors showed a nonlinear enhancement effect. Therefore, the interaction effects of other factors were all characterized by bivariate enhancement.

Key words: carbon sequestration services, supply and demand characteristics, influencing factors, Shaanxi Province

耿甜伟, 韩晚星, 林菲, 李振环. 陕西省固碳服务供需关系时空演变特征及影响因素[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(5): 939-948.

GENG Tianwei, HAN Wanxing, LIN Fei, LI Zhenhuan. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the supply and demand relationship of carbon sequestration services in Shaanxi Province[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(5): 939-948.

图/表 11

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区域	2015年	2020年	2023年
关中	28.18	27.04	26.05
陕北	32.36	31.45	32.48
陕南	39.12	40.79	42.26
全省	99.66	99.28	100.79

供需指标	2015年	2020年	2023年
供需差值/10⁶t	29.46	10.58	-5.81
供需指数	0.17	0.05	-0.03
供需状态	轻度盈余	轻度盈余	轻度赤字

影响因素	初选因子	编号	q值	影响因素	初选因子	编号	q值
自然因素	地形起伏度	N₁	0.67	社会经济因素	人均居民可支配收入	S₅	0.21^*
	年均气温	N₂	0.07		社会消费品零售总额	S₆	0.28^*
	年均降水量	N₃	0.65^**		人口数量	S₇	0.32^*
	日照数	N₄	0.24		城镇人口数量	S₈	0.14
	草地面积	N₅	0.11	能源因素	民用汽车拥有量	E₁	0.38^**
	耕地面积	N₆	0.05		城市公共交通运营量	E₂	0.16^*
	林地面积	N₇	0.11^*		私人汽车拥有量	E₃	0.39^**
	园林绿化覆盖面积	N₈	0.20^*		工业企业能源消耗量	E₄	0.31
社会经济因素	GDP总量	S₁	0.15^*		工业废气排放量	E₅	0.31^*
	人均GDP	S₂	0.05		工业固体废弃物排放量	E₆	0.29^*
	工业企业产值	S₃	0.08		天然气销售量	E₇	0.17^*
	第二产业产值	S₄	0.08		液化石油销售量	E₈	0.13

交互因子	解释力	解释力排名	交互类型
N₃∩E₃	0.86	2	双因子增强
N₃∩E₁	0.81	4	双因子增强
N₃∩S₇	0.84	3	双因子增强
N₃∩E₅	0.97	1	非线性增强
E₃∩E₁	0.43	9	双因子增强
E₃∩S₇	0.44	8	双因子增强
E₃∩E₅	0.72	6	非线性增强
E₁∩S₇	0.43	10	双因子增强
E₁∩E₅	0.79	5	非线性增强
S₇∩E₅	0.66	7	非线性增强

陕西省固碳服务供需关系时空演变特征及影响因素

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the supply and demand relationship of carbon sequestration services in Shaanxi Province

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