黄河流域水资源-生态韧性动态耦合与级层障碍解析

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2025.229

干旱区地理 ›› 2026, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (3): 569-580.doi: 10.12118/j.issn.1000－6060.2025.229 cstr: 32274.14.ALG2025229

黄河流域水资源-生态韧性动态耦合与级层障碍解析

王慧丽¹^,²(), 李妞¹(), 刘英¹, 刘咏涵¹

1.西安财经大学统计与数据科学学院，陕西西安 710100
2.西安财经大学西安统计研究院，陕西西安 710100

收稿日期:2025-04-24 修回日期:2025-05-23 出版日期:2026-03-25 发布日期:2026-03-24
通讯作者: 李妞（2000-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事生态环境统计研究. E-mail: liniu330@163.com
作者简介:王慧丽（1980-），女，博士，副教授，主要从事生态环境统计、统计模型构建与应用研究. E-mail: hlwang@xaufe.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金一般项目(23BRK011);陕西省社会科学基金项目(2024D041);西安财经大学研究生创新基金项目(24YC012);西安财经大学高等教育改革发展研究项目(2024GJ12);陕西省教育厅青年创新团队科研计划项目(25JP058)

Dynamic coupling and hierarchical obstacle analysis of water resources and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin

WANG Huili¹^,²(), LI Niu¹(), LIU Ying¹, LIU Yonghan¹

1. School of Statistics and Data Science, Xi’an University of Finance and Economics, Xi’an 710100, Shaanxi, China
2. Xi’an Institute of Statistics, Xi’an University of Finance and Economics, Xi’an 710100, Shaanxi, China

Received:2025-04-24 Revised:2025-05-23 Published:2026-03-25 Online:2026-03-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

分析黄河流域水资源韧性和生态韧性的动态耦合关系与障碍因子，对推动区域可持续发展具有重要意义。基于2011—2022年黄河流域省级面板数据，综合运用“压力-状态-响应”（PSR）模型、组合权重法、调整系数的耦合协调度模型测算黄河流域9省区水资源韧性和生态韧性耦合协调度，结合可变时长的Markov链探讨耦合协调度的动态演变规律及状态转移路径，构建障碍度模型识别主要障碍因子。结果表明：（1）2011—2022年黄河流域水资源韧性与生态韧性呈波动式上升趋势，空间异质性显著。（2）2011—2022年黄河流域耦合协调度持续向好发展，上中游相对较高，下游较低，协调区域呈现由点到片、由南至东北部的演进趋势。（3）耦合协调等级转移路径较为稳定，以向上逐级转移为主，转移概率随步长的增加而增大。（4）水资源状态、生态响应和生态状态为耦合协调度准则层主要障碍因子，地表水、水资源总量、城市公园数量、地下水和公园绿地面积为耦合协调度指标层主要障碍因子。研究结果可为制定更精准的生态安全和转型政策提供决策依据，促进区域协调发展。

关键词: 水资源韧性, 生态韧性, 耦合协调度, Markov链, 障碍度模型, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Understanding the dynamic coupling relationship and obstacle factors affecting water resource resilience and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin of China is essential for promoting regional sustainable development. Based on panel data from nine provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2022, this study comprehensively employed the “pressure-state-response” (PSR) model, a combined weighting method, and an adjusted coupling coordination degree model to calculate the coupling coordination degree between water resource resilience and ecological resilience. A variable-length Markov chain was used to examine the dynamic evolutionary patterns and state transition paths of the coupling coordination degree, and an obstacle degree model was constructed to identify the main obstacle factors. The results indicate that: (1) The resilience of water resources and ecological systems in the Yellow River Basin followed a fluctuating upward trend from 2011 to 2022, with significant spatial heterogeneity. (2) The coupling coordination degree improved continuously over the study period, with relatively higher levels in the upper and middle reaches and lower levels in the lower reaches. The coordinated regions exhibited an evolutionary pattern from point to area and from south to northeast. (3) The state transition paths of the coupling coordination degrees were relatively stable, with upward stepwise transitions as the main pattern. Transition probabilities increased with greater step length. (4) The main obstacle factors at the criterion level are the state of water resources, ecological response, and ecological status. The main obstacle factors at the indicator level include surface water, total water resources, number of urban parks, groundwater, and green space area of parks. These findings provide a basis for formulating more targeted policies to promote ecological security and transformation, thereby facilitating regional coordinated development.

Key words: water resources resilience, ecological resilience, coupling coordination degree, Markov chain, obstacle degree mode, Yellow River Basin

王慧丽, 李妞, 刘英, 刘咏涵. 黄河流域水资源-生态韧性动态耦合与级层障碍解析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2026, 49(3): 569-580.

WANG Huili, LI Niu, LIU Ying, LIU Yonghan. Dynamic coupling and hierarchical obstacle analysis of water resources and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2026, 49(3): 569-580.

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参考文献 26

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目标层	准则层	指标层	属性	层次分析法权重	熵值法权重	组合权重
水资源韧性	水资源压力（B₁）	人口密度（C₁）/人·km^-2	-	0.064	0.065	0.065
		人口自然增长率（C₂）/%	-	0.031	0.046	0.037
		万元GDP用水量（C₃）/m²·(10⁴元)^-1	-	0.010	0.023	0.015
		人均废水排放量（C₄）/t·人^-1	-	0.023	0.038	0.029
		水资源开发利用率（C₅）/%	-	0.023	0.044	0.032
	水资源状态（B₂）	产水系数（C₆）/%	+	0.088	0.085	0.087
		地表水（C₇）/10⁸ km³	+	0.273	0.238	0.259
		地下水（C₈）/10⁸ km³	+	0.127	0.111	0.121
		水资源总量（C₉）/10⁸ km³	+	0.227	0.201	0.216
	水资源响应（B₃）	降水变异系数（C₁₀）/%	+	0.031	0.044	0.036
		城市污水处理率（C₁₁）/%	+	0.013	0.021	0.016
		森林覆盖率（C₁₂）/%	+	0.090	0.085	0.088
生态韧性	生态压力（B₄）	人口密度（C₁₃）/人·km^-2	-	0.020	0.022	0.028
		人均用水量（C₁₄）/m²·人^-1	-	0.020	0.033	0.021
		人均工业烟（粉）尘排放量（C₁₅）/t·人^-1	-	0.029	0.020	0.031
		工业SO₂排放量（C₁₆）/10⁴ t	-	0.098	0.082	0.067
		生活垃圾清运量（C₁₇）/10⁴ t	-	0.034	0.024	0.054
	生态状态（B₅）	建成区绿化覆盖率（C₁₈）/%	+	0.031	0.084	0.028
		城市公园数量（C₁₉）/个	+	0.202	0.084	0.155
		公园绿地面积（C₂₀）/10⁴ km²	+	0.098	0.017	0.093
		空气质量优良率（C₂₁）/%	+	0.008	0.123	0.011
		水资源总量（C₂₂）/10⁸ km³	+	0.044	0.088	0.076
	生态响应（B₆）	市容环卫专用车辆设备总数（C₂₃）/辆	+	0.026	0.065	0.051
		无害化处理厂数量（C₂₄）/座	+	0.101	0.115	0.086
		排水管道长度（C₂₅）/km	+	0.047	0.112	0.074
		治理废水项目完成投资（C₂₆）/10⁴元	+	0.022	0.082	0.058
		城市生活垃圾清运量（C₂₇）/10⁴ t	+	0.091	0.009	0.087
		城市生活垃圾无害化处理率（C₂₈）/%	+	0.091	0.022	0.058

子系统韧性	陕西	四川	青海	河南	山东	内蒙古	甘肃	宁夏	山西
水资源韧性	0.024	0.028	0.083	0.029	0.033	0.029	0.088	0.044	0.027
生态韧性	-0.014	0.006	0.018	0.002	-0.007	0.018	0.011	0.012	0.006

省区	水资源韧性				生态韧性
省区	2011年	2015年	2019年	2022年	2011年	2015年	2019年	2022年
青海	0.342	0.323	0.427	0.381	0.198	0.184	0.246	0.256
四川	0.764	0.756	0.863	0.769	0.404	0.468	0.612	0.663
甘肃	0.221	0.217	0.282	0.271	0.169	0.201	0.293	0.318
内蒙古	0.317	0.333	0.319	0.347	0.219	0.273	0.334	0.355
宁夏	0.108	0.125	0.152	0.175	0.152	0.184	0.225	0.249
陕西	0.394	0.333	0.368	0.376	0.293	0.300	0.369	0.410
河南	0.238	0.218	0.201	0.251	0.307	0.361	0.506	0.544
山西	0.201	0.191	0.208	0.247	0.220	0.266	0.351	0.377
山东	0.227	0.156	0.189	0.307	0.497	0.555	0.765	0.828

年份	类别	准则层			指标层
年份	类别	第一	第二	第三	第一	第二	第三	第四	第五
2011	障碍因子	B₂	B₆	B₅	C₇	C₉	C₁₉	C₂₀	C₈
2011	障碍度	36.95	22.67	20.98	15.12	12.37	9.79	5.68	5.67
2015	障碍因子	B₂	B₆	B₅	C₇	C₉	C₁₉	C₈	C₂₀
2015	障碍度	38.96	21.47	20.47	15.76	12.92	9.31	6.05	5.34
2019	障碍因子	B₂	B₆	B₅	C₇	C₉	C₁₉	C₈	C₂₄
2019	障碍度	40.42	21.28	20.55	16.37	13.43	9.45	6.36	5.46
2022	障碍因子	B₂	B₆	B₅	C₇	C₉	C₁₉	C₈	C₂₆
2022	障碍度	44.37	20.85	18.83	18.20	14.88	7.97	6.93	5.20

黄河流域水资源-生态韧性动态耦合与级层障碍解析

Dynamic coupling and hierarchical obstacle analysis of water resources and ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin

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