关键词: 棉花生产, 适度规模, 调控对策, 新疆

Abstract: Cotton is one of the economic crops with the most superiority in Xinjiang, which is one of the biggest three cotton regions in China. There exist many problems in cotton production in Xinjiang, such as water and land resources was used unreasonably, plant diseases and insect pests cotton field is becoming more and more seriously because of cotton areas are too large, the income of cotton production is going down yearly owing to the falling of cotton market price etc. Because of these factors, the cotton production in Xinjiang must have the moderate scale based strictly on the potential scale (according to the potential of agricultural resources) and the reasonable scale (refer to the reasonable crop proportion of grain to cotton), and it must be smaller than the reasonable scale and more smaller than the potential scale. The moderate scale should be determined finally by the market and cotton price. After a series of analysis on inner-outer national and regional cotton market and price, the potential scale of Xinjiang cotton region is calculated as 1.50×106 t and 1.06×106 hm², and the reasonable scale is as 9. 00× 105 hm² and 1.25×106 t. The moderate scale of China is 4.50×106 t, and the moderate scale of Xinjiang is 1.20 ×106 t and 8. 00×105 hm² based on the stable level of per yield of 1.50×103 kg/hm². After extensive analysis on the existed problems mentioned above, the adjust-controlling countermeasures of the cotton production of Xinjiang in the future are set forth as follow：reasonable distribution is the base, excellent quality-higher productivity-lower cost is the key point, scientific determination and utility of the cotton market price is the prerequisite, the reform of cotton exchange system and turning of administration mechanism is the approach.

Key words: Cotton production, Moderate Scale, Adjust-controlling Countermeasures, Xinjiang