黄河上游近60 a径流量与降水量变化特征研究

doi:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2021.452

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究黄河上游径流量与降水量变化特征,基于唐乃亥、下河沿、头道拐3个水文站近60 a的降水量、径流量资料,采用线性倾向趋势检验、Mann-Kendall检验法（M-K趋势检验）、Spearman秩次相关检验、M-K突变检验、Pettitt非参数检验、有序聚类分析、累积距平法、双累积曲线等分析方法对比研究了黄河上游及上游不同子区域降水量和径流量的变化特征,并讨论了径流量对降水量的响应关系。结果表明：黄河上游降水量呈不显著增加趋势,在2003年发生突变,突变前后变化率为4.67%;径流量呈显著减少趋势,突变年份为1986年,突变前后变化率为35.34%。3个子区域年降水量变化趋势分别呈显著增加、不显著增加和显著减少趋势,径流量均呈减少趋势。以唐乃亥以上的Ⅰ区为基准区时,唐乃亥—下河沿所在的Ⅱ区降水量因素对径流量的影响达到25.08%,非降水量因素为74.92%,而下河沿—头道拐的Ⅲ区,降水量对径流量的影响为32.14%,非降水量因素为67.86%。研究结果对黄河流域水资源综合管理与科学配置具有参考意义。

关键词: 黄河上游及分区, 径流量, 降水量, 变化特征, 响应关系

Abstract:

In this research, linear trend test, M-K trend test, Spearman’s rank correlation test, M-K test, Pettitt’s nonparametric test, orderly clustering analysis, the cumulative departure method, and the double-mass curve were applied to study the precipitation and runoff variation characteristics of upstream of the Yellow River, China. Further, the relationship between runoff and precipitation is discussed. Results show an insignificant increasing trend in rainfall in the upstream of the Yellow River, while runoff exhibits a distinct decreasing trend. Both precipitation and runoff present a significant deflection point, whose change rate between before and after is 4.67% (2003) and 35.34% (1986), respectively. For the three subregions, subregion I: above Tangnaihai station, subregion II: from Tangnaihai to Xiaheyan, and subregion III: from Xiaheyan to Toudaoguai, rainfall presents a significant increasing trend, an insignificant increasing trend, and a significant decreasing trend. However, runoff, for all subregions, exhibits a significant decreasing trend. With subregion I taken as the baseline, the relative impact of precipitation on runoff in subregion II is 25.08%. Consequently, the nonprecipitation factors account for 74.92%. Similarly, the percentage for subregion III is 32.14% and 67.86%, respectively. This research will offer theoretical references for water resource management and planning.

Key words: the upstream of Yellow River and its regions, runoff, precipitation, variation characteristics, response relationship

成艺,武兰珍,刘峰贵,沈彦俊. 黄河上游近60 a径流量与降水量变化特征研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(4): 1022-1031.

CHENG Yi,WU Lanzhen,LIU Fenggui,SHEN Yanjun. Changes of runoff and precipitation in the upstream of Yellow River during the past 60 years[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(4): 1022-1031.

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类型	Z值	Z_α_/2	趋势性	显著性	r_s	\|T\|	T_α_/2	趋势性	显著性
降水量	0.78	1.96	增加	不显著	0.09	0.78	2.01	增加	不显著
径流量	-3.82	1.96	减少	显著	-0.51	2.58	2.01	减少	显著

类型	研究区域	均值	最大值	最大值出现年份	最小值	最小值出现年份	极值比
降水量/mm	Ⅰ区	530.90	658.20	1989	418.60	1956	1.57
	Ⅱ区	449.30	622.50	1967	338.20	1991	1.84
	Ⅲ区	271.70	425.30	1961	148.30	1965	2.87
径流量/10⁸ m³	Ⅰ区	198.64	328.60	1989	105.75	2002	3.11
	Ⅱ区	97.29	214.62	1964	13.67	2009	13.67
	Ⅲ区	-91.80	-58.92	1956	-121.14	2005	0.49

研究区域	Kendall检验	Spearman检验	Pearson检验
Ⅰ区	0.49	0.68	0.71
Ⅱ区	0.15	0.21	0.34
Ⅲ区	0.33	0.48	0.43

研究区域	平均降水量/mm	实测平均径流量 /10⁹ m³	理论平均径流量 /10¹⁰ m³	降水量因素对径流量的影响/%	非降水量因素对径流量的影响/%
Ⅱ区	449.3	9.73	1.73	25.08	74.92
Ⅲ区	271.7	-9.18	1.05	32.14	67.86